New Delhi:
Syria’s future hinges on uncertainty after the abrupt fall of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Once thought unassailable, Assad’s rule collapsed under the pressure of a rapid offensive led by a group called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly known as the Al-Nusra Front affiliated with terror group Al-Qaeda, and allied factions.
Bashar al-Assad came to power in 2000, succeeding his father, Hafez al-Assad, who ruled Syria with an iron grip for nearly three decades. Initially, there were hopes that Bashar would bring reform and openness to Syria. However, these aspirations were dashed as he maintained the repressive structure of his father’s regime.
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Assad’s legacy will forever be marred by his response to the protests in 2011, which escalated into a brutal civil war. Over half a million people have been killed, six million became refugees, and countless more are internally displaced. With military backing from Russia and Iran, Assad survived against a fragmented opposition, relying on Russian air power and Iranian-backed militias like Hezbollah.
Preoccupied with their own struggles – Russia in Ukraine and Iran facing regional challenges – neither could offer significant support. Within days, the rebels captured key cities like Aleppo, Hama, and Homs, before advancing into Damascus itself.
A Fragile Transition
Rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani, known now by his real name, Ahmed al-Sharaa, announced the formation of a transitional authority. Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed al-Jalali has been appointed as the caretaker of state institutions.
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In a statement, al-Jalali expressed his willingness to cooperate with any leadership chosen by the Syrian people.
Despite these efforts, HTS’s history – rooted in al-Qaeda – casts a long shadow over its promises of a diplomatic and nationalist approach. Scepticism abounds regarding its long-term intentions and ability to govern a fractured country.
The end of Assad’s rule does not immediately translate to peace for Syrians. HTS’s past association with extremist groups raises fears of a harsh, authoritarian rule under the guise of Islamist governance. Millions of displaced Syrians, both within the country and abroad, face an uncertain future as they watch the unfolding events with hope and trepidation.
The Russian Setback
The fall of Assad marks a blow to Russian influence in the Middle East. Since its intervention in 2015, Russia has been the regime’s most steadfast supporter, maintaining strategic assets such as the Tartous naval facility and the Hmeimim airbase in Latakia. These bases are vital for projecting power across the Mediterranean and into Africa.
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However, Russia’s military focus is currently consumed by its war in Ukraine. The loss of control in Syria raises questions about Moscow’s ability to safeguard its strategic footholds in the region.
Iran Losing The Axis Of Resistance
For Iran, Assad’s downfall disrupts the “Axis of Resistance” that connects Tehran to Hezbollah in Lebanon through Syria. This network has been crucial for transferring weapons and exerting influence in the region. With Hezbollah weakened from its recent conflict with Israel and Iran’s proxies in Yemen and Iraq under pressure, Tehran’s war strategy will need a different approach.
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Iran’s preoccupation with Israel, which it views as an existential threat, further limits its capacity to respond effectively in Syria. Israel’s recent targeting of Iranian assets has compounded these challenges, leaving Tehran on the defensive.
Turkey’s Role
Turkey’s role in Assad’s fall remains ambiguous. While President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had long advocated for a diplomatic resolution to the Syrian conflict, his calls were consistently rebuffed by Assad. Turkey, home to over three million Syrian refugees, has a vested interest in resolving the conflict to facilitate their return.
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Ankara has denied direct involvement in the HTS offensive, but analysts suggest that Turkey’s tacit approval or indirect support may have played a role. Erdogan’s priorities include securing Turkey’s borders and countering Kurdish militias in northern Syria.
Israel’s Strategic Thinking
For Israel, the collapse of Assad’s regime represents both opportunity and risk. The fall of Iran’s primary ally in Syria disrupts the supply chain to Hezbollah, but the emergence of HTS as a dominant force introduces new uncertainties.
Israel has reinforced its presence along the Golan Heights, preparing for potential spillovers or attempts by rebels to seize Syrian army stockpiles. The Israeli military is also wary of Iran and Hezbollah exploiting the chaos to acquire advanced weaponry.
