With Lok Sabha elections just about a month away, we are decoding Maharashtra’s political landscape at ‘NDTV Battleground’. The state has witnessed two rounds of political shifts in the last three years with the Maha Vikas Aghadi alliance in the power now.
At ‘NDTV Battleground’, we discuss about state’s politics, growth, seat distribution in upcoming elections, challenges for the current government and the Opposition and much more.
Here are the highlights:
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On electoral bonds, Amitabh Tiwari, political strategist and commentator, said, “BJP has received 50 per cent funds and others have received the remaining 50. It takes out the sting from the issue. Cash remains the king.”
Maneesha Priyam said, “Would electoral bonds be labelled as a corrupt thing or not has to be seen. A referendum will come on this.”
Neelkanth Mishra, Chief Economist of Axis Bank, says, “People are saying affordable housing projects are not working. If you give connectivity and infrastructure to the area that has affordable housing, people would want to go there,”
Nilesh Shah, Managing Director of Kotak Mutual Fund, “We need both cooperative federalism and competitive federalism. Competition is needed so that people keep working hard. Cooperative federalism is also needed. Amul showed us the way. Because of Amul, we have become the biggest milk-producer.”
Maneesha Priyam, political analyst and researcher, says, “I visited some villages after RaGa yatra, and they said that he said good things but it was only about him. The PM visited a few days later, he spoke about development. The image of RaGa is improving but PM is miles ahead in terms of leadership.”
Rohit Chandavarkar, senior journalist, says, “Prakash Ambedkar attended the Mumbai rally but it’s not sure if he would go with the INDIA bloc or not. If he goes with them, they will get that advantage. I also think the winning margin would be very low. I predict this time it would be around 40,000-50,000,”
Amitabh Tiwari, political strategist and commentator, says, “In Maharashtra, the allies have a good chunk of minority vote. Would this transfer to BJP or Sena – Uddhav thackeray? So, all these complexities are there in Maharashtra. The allies’ vote would also have Modi factor.”
Sandeep Shastri, National Coordinator of Lokniti Network, says, “In 2014, north, west central focus was there, now it’s on south. In South, the 103 seats, the BJP and ally have 32 seats. They feel that they have some scope there. But the scope is there only in Telangana, Karnataka. Their gameplan is might not be for 2024 but its a long-term plan.”
Rohit Chandavarkar, senior journalist, says, “Maharashtra is already a developed state industry-wise. So, jobs are not a big issue here. It might be an issue in UP but not here. Someone might have to leave their village but they will find a job 100 km away. The price rise is also not much of an issue here. Which is why caste is a big factor here, the opposition is also using the unrest in farmers.”
Amitabh Tiwari, political strategist and commentator, says, “The opposition is confused. The INDIA bloc is there but we only hear Cong’s guarantees. When the voters hear this, they think about the model states. You see that in Karnataka.”
Sandeep Shastri, national coordinator of Lokniti Network and a teacher, says, “I haven’t ever seen a survey where unemployment and inflation weren’t in top positions. People know that they are facing these issues. When our voter goes to vote, are they thinking about unemployment and inflation or are they thinking about something else? So, we need to think if emotions are a factor”
Manisha Priyam, a political analyst and researcher says, “Unemployment is a huge issue. But, the youth believes in the BJP because they know the party will work for it and deliver.”
Neelkanth Mishra, Chief Economist of Axis Bank, says, “During Covid crisis, the economy was left behind by a year. But, it didn’t stop the labour force flow. This is the reason why we feel there is joblessness. But jobs are being created at 5 per cent. But to absorb all the labour force, we will have to grow above 7 per cent.”
Political Strategist and Commentator Amitabh Tiwari says , “The BJP has put the ‘tadka’ of class politics on caste politics. The voting behaviour has become very complex. Voting is an emotional decision and not a rational one. But no elections can be called a done deal because of these 3 reasons – there are many late deciders in India, 25 per cent vote on the names of candidates, 69 per cent are floating voters and they are the kingmakers. Which is why in Maharashtra, it’s going to be unpredictable.”
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Rohit Chandavarkar, a senior journalist, says, “Maharashtra can be a deciding state because of its numbers – 48. We haven’t seen so much uncertainty in the last 30-40 years that we are seeing now. It’s going to be very unpredictable here.”
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Sandeep Shastri, National Coordinator of Lokniti Network and a teacher says , “In this election I am focussing on 5 states – UP, Bihar, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Bengal – where there is some scope for change. The results here would reflect the nation’s mood.”
