Uganda’s President Museveni takes commanding lead in early election results

Veteran Ugandan President Yoweri ​Museveni held a commanding lead in early election results announced ‌on Friday (January 16, 2026), while the party of his ​main challenger, Bobi Wine, said its leader was under effective house arrest. The 81-year-old Mr. Museveni has ruled Uganda since seizing power in 1986 and is looking for a decisive victory to assert his political strength as speculation mounts about his eventual succession.

Results announced by the electoral commission from Thursday’s (January 15, 2026) vote showed Mr. Museveni with 76.25% of ​the vote based on tallies from nearly half of the polling ⁠stations. Wine trailed with 19.85%, with the remaining vote split among six other candidates.

Mr. Museveni had told reporters after casting his ballot that he expected to win ​with 80% of the vote “if ⁠there’s no cheating”. Pop star-turned-politician Wine has alleged massive fraud during the election, which was held under an internet blackout following a campaign marred by violence.

Wine, whose legal name is Robert ‌Kyagulanyi, called on his supporters on Thursday (January 15, 2026) to protest, though ‌there has been no sign of demonstrations so far.

His National Unity Platform (NUP) party wrote on its X account ‍late on Thursday (January 15) that the military and police had surrounded Wine’s house in the capital Kampala, “effectively placing him under house arrest”.

Police spokesperson Kituuma ‍Rusoke told Reuters he was not aware of Wine being placed under house arrest.

Security forces confined Wine to his home for days after the last election in 2021, in which he was credited with 35% of the vote. The United States said that election was neither free nor fair, a charge rejected by Ugandan authorities.

The U.N. human rights office said last week that this year’s election ⁠was being held in an environment of “widespread repression and intimidation”.

Security forces repeatedly opened fire at Wine’s rallies, killing at ​least one person, and arrested hundreds of his supporters. The government ⁠said they were responding to lawless behaviour. A Mr. Museveni win would hand the former rebel leader a seventh term in office. He is widely believed to favour his son, military chief Muhoozi Kainerugaba, as his successor, though he has denied grooming ⁠Kainerugaba for the role.