Neck and neck: On the U.S. presidential election

With less than two weeks before voting day in the 2024 U.S. election, no clear winner has emerged in the contest between Democrat and incumbent Vice-President Kamala Harris, and Republican and former President Donald Trump, two candidates who could not be more mutually differentiated in terms of values profiles and public personas. Averages of national polls suggest that Ms. Harris has a slender lead of around 1.7%, with close to 48.1% of the results favouring her relative to Mr. Trump’s 46.4%. Similarly, in seven key swing States which could end up having a decisive impact on the outcome of voting in the electoral college, Mr. Trump appears to be enjoying a small lead in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, even though that lead has switched back and forth between the two candidates. In Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Ms. Harris has nosed slightly ahead of Mr. Trump although now the advantage has slipped back to Mr. Trump in Pennsylvania, even if it is less than 1%. In Nevada it appears to be a dead heat, though in each of these swing States the lead is less than 3% — quite likely to lie well within the statistical margin of error. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were in the past Blue States, but Mr. Trump flipped them to Republicans in 2016. Incumbent President Joe Biden brought them back to the Democratic camp in 2020, a win that Ms. Harris would need to reprise if she is to emerge the victor.

The candidate that independent and undecided voters pick will determine whether the U.S. continues with a socially and economically progressive agenda under Ms. Harris, or whether a more conservative approach that is aligned to the personality and whims of Mr. Trump and his ad hoc approach to domestic and foreign policy, wins the day. As president, Ms. Harris would oversee a broader role for government in regulating the economy, including by introducing tax cuts for the middle class and continuing the Biden plan for trade tariffs to boost U.S. global competitiveness. She would also champion the effort to protect abortion rights through Congress, advocate for humane policing of the southern border alongside immigration reform and ensure that Washington remains engaged with foreign allies to manage global conflicts. Mr. Trump’s leadership paradigm would see, if he is back, the government hand out corporate tax rate cuts and exempt social security benefits from income tax. He would adopt a hawkish stand on immigration, including by accelerating deportations to possibly unprecedented levels. Global alliances may take a back seat, if it comes to pass. Whichever candidate prevails, on November 5, voters have a unique opportunity to shape the destiny of their country, at least for the next four years.