A crucial election in Sri Lanka | Explained

The story so far:

Sri Lanka will go to the polls on September 21 and the campaign has intensified with barely a week left. The election marks the first opportunity citizens will have to choose their leader, after they ousted former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, at the height of a crushing economic downturn two years ago. The crisis, which triggered unprecedented mass protests, was the worst the island nation has seen since Independence in 1948. Besides booting out Mr. Gotabaya, the Janatha Aragalaya (Sinhala term for people’s struggle) sought to shake up the country’s establishment with a loud cry for “system change”. After Mr. Gotabaya fled the country and quit office, senior politician Ranil Wickremesinghe took his place through a parliamentary vote that he won with the support of the Rajapaksas’ party, which still holds a majority in the legislature.

Why is this election significant?

It is the first poll to be held since the dramatic downturn of 2022 that saw citizens queuing up for fuel, gas, and medicines while contending with long power cuts. Elections to the country’s local government bodies, which were due last year, were postponed due to a “lack of funds,” while provincial council polls stand indefinitely postponed.

What is different?

Sri Lanka’s political and electoral landscape has seen significant reconfiguration over the last few years.

The once formidable Rajapaksas, who dominated the country’s politics for nearly two decades, are out of focus this election. The country’s two traditional parties — the centre-left Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and the centre-right United National Party (UNP) — have been decimated, and now exist only in their rump, remnants, and records of history. Their breakaway formations have sought to detach themselves from the parent parties while drawing from their bases.

Outside the SLFP-UNP domain, the National People’s Power Alliance (NPP), led by the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP or People’s Liberation Front), has emerged as a prominent third front challenging the old political order.

In contrast to previous presidential elections, which were marked by a bipolar political contest, next weekend’s poll is principally a three-cornered race.

Who are the frontrunners?

A record 39 presidential aspirants filed nominations for the September 21 election. One passed away and 38 are still in the race. Of these, incumbent Mr. Wickremesinghe, Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa, and yet another Opposition politician Anura Kumara Dissanayake are seen to be in the lead.

Which political camps do they represent?

Although President Wickremesinghe was backed by the Rajapaksas’ Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP or People’s Front that the Rajapaksas carved out of the SLFP they were originally part of) during the last two years, and still leads the UNP, he is running as an independent candidate.

Mr. Premadasa is contesting from the main Opposition party, the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB or United People’s Front that broke away from the UNP). Mr. Dissanayake has been fielded by the NPP. The Alliance is a broad social coalition whose chief constituent is the JVP, a party with Marxist-Leninist origins that has led two armed insurrections of Sinhalese youth against the state in the 1970s and 1980s.

Additionally, Namal Rajapaksa, Hambantota legislator and son of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa is running from the SLPP.

What are they pitching?

Mr. Wickremesinghe, 75, is campaigning on a plank of “stability”. With a poll slogan “We can, Sri Lanka”, he is seeking a mandate to continue his government’s economic reform agenda, crafted to meet targets set by an International Monetary Fund programme. He claims credit for setting the bankrupt country on a path of recovery over the last two years.

Mr. Premadasa, 57, promises to build a resilient economy in which the fruits of development will reach all citizens while enhancing educational opportunities and governance with digital aids. The former deputy leader of the UNP accuses his former boss and current rival Mr. Wickremesinghe of siding with and protecting the Rajapaksas. Mr. Premadasa says his presidency will be a “win for all”.

Mr. Dissanayake, 55, is promising change by “weeding out corruption” and eliminating the old political culture enabling it. He blames the country’s political elite, who held power since Independence, for its downfall, and assures he can fix it through a “national liberation movement” of the people. He says his leadership will build a “thriving nation and a beautiful life”.

How is the winner decided?

Sri Lanka follows a preferential voting system in which voters can mark up to three preferences against the names of the presidential aspirants listed on the ballot.

A candidate must secure 50% plus one vote to be declared winner. If no candidate garners the majority vote share, a second count of votes will be used to pick the winner. The preferential votes received by the top two candidates will be factored in and the contestant who gets the highest number of votes will be named winner. Around 17 million voters, from Sri Lanka’s 22 million-strong population, are registered to vote in this election.

What are the leading candidates’ chances?

A three-cornered race within a fragmented electorate makes it challenging for any candidate to secure more than 50% of the vote.

After a devastating economic crisis, the electoral appeal of the top three candidates rests on whether their messages speak to the concerns of common people, who are still struggling to cope with the high cost of living and their drastically altered lifestyles, marked by fewer meals or less nutrition in many cases. In addition to the vote of Sinhalese, who make up nearly 75 % of the population, the voting pattern of the island’s ethnic minorities, such as the Tamils of the north, and east; the Malaiyaha Tamils from the hill country; and the Muslims, will decide the winner.

How will the minorities vote?

It is hard to say since the Tamil and Muslim political landscape is also more fragmented than before.

In past elections, Tamils of the north and east consistently voted as a bloc against the Rajapaksas, who are accused of grave human rights violations during and after the war. In this election, however, there is no Rajapaksa contesting to win. Mr. Namal’s last-minute candidacy is seen more as an effort to consolidate the party after many of its members decided to back Mr. Wickremesinghe.

Tamils residing in the island’s north and east appear torn between choosing one of the frontrunners, or a Tamil candidate fielded by some Tamil parties and civil society groups. It is their protest against the past failures of the southern leadership on justice, accountability, power sharing, and post-war economic development. Tamil voters’ dilemma is also linked to their own political leadership being deeply divided on the presidential election and several other questions of policy and governance.

While the prominent Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi (ITAK) is backing Mr. Premadasa, many other groups and politicians, including some within the ITAK, are canvassing for the “common Tamil candidate”, even as some others are calling for a boycott of the polls.

Political representatives of the Malaiyaha Tamils are mostly backing Mr. Wickremesinghe or Mr. Premadasa. Workers on the tea and rubber estates — whose Indian ancestors were brought down by the British two centuries ago to work on plantations in Sri Lanka — are looking for relief after being severely hit by the crisis and its aftermath. They are also demanding housing and land rights that have been historically denied to them.

Although key Muslim leaders are part of Mr. Premadasa’s alliance, the community which lives across Sri Lanka, is voicing diverse political views. This election is unlikely to see a bloc vote from the minorities.

What are the challenges ahead?

The new President’s job will be far from easy. Sri Lanka is in the process of firming up its debt treatment plan with its creditors and still has a long way to go before meaningful economic recovery. Ordinary Sri Lankans are reeling under the impact of the crisis. As real incomes fall and joblessness grows, scores of citizens are desperately looking for jobs abroad.

Further, Sri Lanka’s general election is also due soon. The country’s executive President will need the legislature’s support for his — there is no women candidate running this time — policies moving forward. No leading contestant can be certain about securing a parliamentary majority in a highly divided legislature. The road ahead for Sri Lanka looks both bumpy and uncertain at this point.