The mandate that Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) had managed to get in Maharashtra during the parliament elections has been lost in the assembly elections. Not many were willing to say which way the election would turn this time. There was almost an agreement among political analysts and pollsters that the election was too close to call. But now it’s clear that much before the election, the voters had decided to vote for Mahayuti.
It is not an ordinary mandate. It is the best-ever performance by the BJP-led alliance.
In 2014, the BJP contested alone and won 122 seats, but in 2019, it contested along with Shiv Sena and had 161 seats together, whereas the Congress-led alliance had to satisfy itself with only 98 seats. This time, Mahayuti has more than 2/3 seats in its kitty. The BJP, Shiv Sena, and NCP all performed better than expected. Now the question is, why has the MVA, which won 30 out of 48 seats in the parliamentary elections, failed so miserably in the assembly elections?
In Jharkhand, on the other hand, INDIA Bloc has managed to regain people’s confidence. This is a stupendous success considering the fact that Chief Minister Hemant Soren was jailed just before the general elections and was behind bars for six months. Once he was out, his trusted colleague Champai Soren deserted the party just before the assembly elections. Still, the JMM-led alliance is heading for a big win, unlike most state has seen before.
Two verdicts from two distant states tell a story: there is no uniform outcome and no single narrative. However, it can be said that women voters played a significant role in both states, and in each, direct cash transfers to women’s accounts proved decisive. In Maharashtra, the female voter turnout rose by 2.5% compared to the 2019 assembly elections, in contrast to male voters. In Maharashtra, the Ladki Bahin Scheme, and in Jharkhand, the Maiya Samman Yojna, both benefited the ruling coalitions.
Another noticeable pattern in both states is that those who won the Lok Sabha election were unable to replicate that performance in the assembly elections. In both states, the Lok Sabha results were reversed in the assembly elections. In Maharashtra, the MVA outperformed the Mahayuti in the parliamentary elections, but in the assembly elections, the Mahayuti reversed the trend. In Jharkhand, the NDA won 9 out of 14 Lok Sabha seats, but in the assembly elections, it was the INDIA alliance that defeated the NDA. This clearly underlines that Lok Sabha and assembly elections are fought on different issues and platforms, and it is erroneous to predict assembly election results based on Lok Sabha outcomes, or vice versa.
Maharashtra election is another example that Congress-led INDIA is not willing to learn any lesson. After the Parliament election, it was expected that Congress in Haryana and MVA in Maharashtra would have easy wins. But in both states, the BJP-led coalition belied all the expectations, and one can say with confidence that the Congress-led alliance has mastered the art of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Let’s not forget that in December 2023, Congress was expected to win MP and Chhattisgarh assembly elections. Whereas when no political pundit was willing to give a chance to the BJP in these two states, it turned the tables and came back with flying colours.
Similarly, the Congress was unable to win the Uttarakhand and Punjab assembly elections in 2022. Therefore, both INDIA bloc and, particularly, the Congress need to reflect and develop a winning strategy. I’m not denying that Congress had successes in Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, and Telangana, but the issue remains: why lose a state that could have been easily won, and why is it that the BJP managed to turn a losing situation into a victory?
The Maharashtra election results could have far-reaching consequences, particularly for Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP). Operation Lotus had already split Shiv Sena and NCP, and the Lok Sabha election delivered a significant blow, not only to Narendra Modi at the centre but also to Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar-led NCP. Despite receiving recognition from the Election Commission, had both parties lost in the assembly elections, their existence would have been seriously jeopardized. Now, the reverse scenario is possible. The Modi government at the centre and the BJP-led Mahayuti government in the state, with a mandate of more than two-thirds, will likely try to weaken both parties, aiming to claim sole ownership of the original Shiv Sena and NCP. Given the results, Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray will find it difficult to retain their MPs. Even the BJP may attempt to poach their MPs by engineering further splits in the parliamentary wings of both parties. If that happens, the BJP at the centre will edge closer to the majority mark in the Lok Sabha. Even if not, MLAs who have won on Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar’s party tickets could be lured to join the treasury benches.
I know it is too early to write the last chapter of Sharad Pawar’s biography, but it is also true that Sharad Pawar, who emerged as a hero in the Parliament election, is now a tragic figure. He has lost after having made an emotional appeal to voters that it was his last election. Sharad Pawar is already 84 years and it is expecting too much for him to remain relevant in 2029 when the next assembly election will be held.
On the other hand, Uddhav Thackeray is much younger, but it must be noted that in both the Lok Sabha and assembly elections, Shinde proved to be better equipped to carry forward Balasaheb Thackeray’s legacy. Uddhav’s performance has been more than disappointing. He and his son, Aditya, will find it very difficult to mount a comeback. Blaming EVMs is poor politics. It makes no sense to blame the EVMs, insinuate any wrongdoing in the election, or propagate the idea that the electoral process has been manipulated unless there is concrete proof.
Finally, on the role of the RSS going forward. It was said that the RSS was less active during the 2024 general election and that was behind the BJP’s below-par performance. Does this mean the RSS’s role in the BJP’s affairs will now be more decisive?
(Ashutosh is the author of ‘Hindu Rashtra’ and co-founder of SatyaHindi.com)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
