Asteroid 2024 YR4 is being keenly watched by astronomers since its discovery in December last year. Dubbed “city killer”, the space rock now has an estimated 1.5 per cent (or 1 in 67) chance of striking our planet during a close flyby on December 22, 2032. Since the chance of the asteroid hitting our planet is above the threshold level of one per cent, space agencies across the world, including NASA, have been closely monitoring its trajectory.
Astronomers have posted simulation of the expected impact corridor of 2924 YR4. It is based on NASA’s assessment, as reported by Scientific American, and stretches from the eastern Pacific Ocean to South Asia. The area covers massive population centres, such as Bogota, Colombia, Lagos, Nigeria and Mumbai.
Here are 70 clones of #asteroid 2024 YR4 that do hit Earth, highlighting the impact risk corridor. There are some big cities along that line: #Bogota, #Lagos, #Mumbai.
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— Tony Dunn (@tony873004.bsky.social) February 11, 2025 at 12:38 AM
There’s also a very small chance that the incoming space rock could strike the moon.
The asteroid is believed to be 130 to 300 feet wide – about the size of a large office building. If there is a collision with Earth, whether the asteroid breaks apart in our planet’s skies or punches a crater into the surface, the immediate effects could resemble a detonating hydrogen bomb, unleashing enough localised devastation to destroy any metropolis in the way.
But the odds are reducing every day. Scientists believe it will reduce to zero, like what happened with Apophis. “At some point in the next months to few years, the probability will go to zero,” the New York Post quoted Bruce Betts, chief scientist for the nonprofit Planetary Society, as saying.
Still, astronomers are not leaving anything to chance. NASA is coordinating with other space agencies like the China National Space Administration (CNSA), the Russian space agency Roscosmos, and the European Space Agency (ESA) to map out the asteroid’s path. A team of astronomers will use NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope to further check estimates of the asteroid’s size and trajectory in early March – and again in early May, just before it dwindles from view (until its orbit brings it close to Earth again in 2028).
