Congress leader Rahul Gandhi won the Wayanad Lok Sabha seat in 2019 (File)
New Delhi:
Over 2,000 km and nearly the length of the country, as well as starkly different socio-economic, cultural, linguistic, culinary, and political realities, separate Amethi in the Hindi heartland of Uttar Pradesh and the Left-dominated Kerala’s Wayanad Lok Sabha seats.
They are, however, linked by Rahul Gandhi, who has represented both constituencies.
Mr Gandhi has confirmed his candidature from the latter, which he won for the first time in 2019; the win was critical since it allowed him to retain his MP status following a seismic defeat to the Bharatiya Janata Party’s Smriti Irani in the party’s family bastion.
There remains a tantalising ‘will he, won’t he’ air about Amethi, which has been (and continues to be, by some accounts) a staunchly Congress seat in a state that has voted, religiously, for the saffron party and the ‘Modi wave’ since the 2014 general election.
But till Mr Gandhi and the Congress either confirm, or deny, a homecoming, the focus is on Kerala and a Wayanad seat that has voted for the party since it was formed after a delimitation exercise in 2009. MI Shanavas won the first two polls and Mr Gandhi the third.
READ | Rahul Gandhi’s “Soldier” Reply Amid Suspense Over Amethi Fight
Rahul Gandhi’s 2019 win was resounding; he secured a massive 65 per cent of the vote share and polled over seven lakh votes. For context, his nearest rival was PP Suneer of the Communist Party of India. The BJP – which has traditionally struggled in the southern state didn’t even field a candidate. It did in 2014, but PR Rasmilnath got fewer than 81,000 votes.
The numbers suggest Wayanad will remain with the Congress, for, based on data from the last two general elections, neither BJP nor the CPI have the numbers to mount a challenge.
But there is still quite a contest brewing in the constituency, with at least two plotlines (not including Rahul Gandhi and the Amethi mystery) making for a dramatic encounter.
The first, and biggest, is the INDIA vs INDIA story.
The Congress heads the INDIA bloc that was announced in June last year and includes over a dozen opposition parties that have united to stop the BJP claiming a third successive term.
The CPI is also a member but, in a peculiar twist, will contest against the bloc leader after it failed to persuade the larger party to allow it to field a candidate unopposed.
The Congress has played down the import of this contest. Party comms boss Jairam Ramesh emphasised that all Left parties remain a part of the group but “this does not preclude group partners from contesting against each other in different states, especially in Kerala”.
Annie Raja, the General Secretary of the National Federation of Indian Women and one of the Left’s tallest leaders, has been chosen to stand against Mr Gandhi.
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Speaking to reporters in February – her candidature was announced weeks before the Congress named Rahul Gandhi – she would only say that each party had the right to propose a candidate, and that it would be up to the people to decide.
The CPI vs Congress story in Kerala is at odds with an alliance between the Left and Mr Gandhi’s party in other states, and this has been flagged by the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has made multiple visits to Kerala over the past few weeks.
It has also prompted Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan to speak out in support of his Left colleagues and demanding to know why the Congress and Mr Gandhi had chosen to fight an ally, when he could take on the BJP in a potentially statement-making contest in Amethi.
The other subplot is the BJP’s pick to contest this seat – its state unit boss, K Surendran.
Mr Surendran has expressed confidence in his party’s chances this election, and has attacked Mr Gandhi and the Congress for “working against India”. His more recent attacks have been fueled by the row over the Congress leader’s “wealth survey” remarks.
READ | “Wayanad Wants To Say Goodbye To Rahul”: Kerala BJP Candidate
The row over the idea of wealth re-distribution has been picked up by the Prime Minister and has now become the BJP candidate’s big weapon in a state ruled by a Communist party.
Meanwhile, even more interesting than Prime Minister Modi’s visits to Kerala is the fact that the BJP sent Smriti Irani to stand by K Surendran’s side as he filed his nomination papers.
READ | “Jijaji Ki Nazar…”: Smriti Irani Mocks Rahul Amid Amethi Pick Buzz
Ultimately, history isn’t really on the BJP’s side in this contest. The party will hope, however, that the INDIA vs INDIA squabble will mean it can pick up a few extra votes.
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