You would have observed how gold and silver prices have moved in recent times. It is also highly likely you gained from the price movements over the last year. With gold prices near record highs and silver prices very volatile, many appear undecided on the next course of action on the two metals. Should you buy now or wait for a dip? If so, should you buy physical or financial asset? Here, we discuss why market timing on gold and silver exchange traded funds (ETFs) is optimal.

Market timing?

The important decision you should make is whether to buy the physical asset or its financial equivalent viz. ETFs. It is optimal to invest in ETFs for two reasons. One, it is operationally efficient to buy and sell ETFs. And two, gold and silver ETFs closely track the spot price of the underlying metal. True, these ETFs trade at a premium to spot price but you may be able to capture a similar premium when you sell the ETF. Selling price of 24-carat physical gold is typically lower than its spot price.

The question of whether you should buy ETF units now or wait for a dip depends on how you invest in gold and silver and manage the positions. Typically, gold and silver form part of satellite portfolio within the core-satellite framework. In this framework, the core portfolio is goal-based and the satellite is trading portfolio, geared to capturing short-term price fluctuations in the market. That means you must be comfortable with market timing. To do this, you must be good at reading price charts — applying technical analysis. Otherwise, you could buy such research from investment professionals. Another choice would be to set up short-term systematic investment plans (SIPs) and take profit whenever the investment generates predefined absolute gains. This choice, however, removes market timing out of the decision process.

Conclusion

The geopolitical tensions around the world have made both gold and silver important assets to have in one’s investment portfolio. But you must be mindful of the difference between the two assets. Gold is typically considered as safe haven during global crisis (referred to as flight to quality). Also, central banks across the world invest in gold to build reserves. Silver is primarily an input in manufacturing processes. So, their returns and price volatility may not always be similar.

(The author offers training programmes for individuals to manage their personal investments)

It was a mixed bag for precious metals in May. While gold prices lost sheen in May and slid to a 2-month low before recovering towards the end of the month, silver managed to hold ground. The uncertainty around the conflict in West Asia had a key role in keeping precious metals price under check.

Comex gold closed 1.43% lower to $4,569.9 by May end. Comex silver gained 1.8% to settle at $75.58.

The performance of the metals in the local market was much better owing to weakening of the Rupee against the U.S. Dollar and the rise in the import duty on gold and silver.

MCX Gold gained 4.3% to ₹1,61,049 per 10-gram. MCX Silver closed on a positive note at ₹2,67,000 a kilogram, representing a 9.14% gain last month.

Comex gold price continues to oscillate within the extremes of the $4,400-$5,650 range. The price has consolidated for a while now and a trending move can start soon. Considering the medium to long term trend is still positive, an upside breakout is likely.

As long as Comex gold price sustains above $4,310, expect a rally to immediate target of $4,650-$4,720. The next higher targets are at $4,790-$4,830. A drop below $4,300 would warrant reassessment of the medium-term positive outlook.

Comex silver price too is stuck in $71-$90 range for the past few weeks. The long-term uptrend in silver would resume only after a breakout above $92. Until then, expect volatile price action within the $71-$90 range.

As anticipated last month, MCX gold price touched the short-term target of ₹1,53,000-₹1,55,000. Except for a big spike post import duty hike, gold price was largely listless in the local market. The price is still confined within the broad range of ₹1,45,000-₹1,75,000. Only a breakout from this range would trigger the next big directional move in gold.

MCX silver price too spiked up post import duty hike but cooled off in the past few weeks. Though there is a possibility of the price heading to the short-term target of ₹2,80,000-₹2,80,500, expect a meaningful uptrend to resume only after a breakout above ₹3,10,000. A drop below ₹2,03,000 would weaken the medium-term outlook for silver.

Conclusion

Both gold and silver are still range bound while the long-term trend stays positive. While there can be a short-term bounce in precious metal prices, there are no signs yet of any resumption of longer-term uptrend.

(The author is a Chennai-based analyst/trader. Views and opinion here are based on an analysis of short-term price movements in gold and silver futures at COMEX & Multi Commodity Exchange of India. This is not meant to be a trading/investment advice.)

Precious metals continued their upward journey in the first half of October, with both gold and silver reaching fresh all-time highs. The prices cooled off subsequent to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision being announced. The firming up of the U.S. dollar too played a part in the recent cool-off from the all-time highs.

Comex gold zoomed past the psychological $4,300 mark earlier in the month and closed at $4,013.4 by the end of October. This represents a gain of 3.24%. Comex silver gained 3% to settle at $48.25 last month. Mirroring the trend in the global markets, the MCX gold price gained 3.4% to settle at ₹1,21,284 per 10 grams. MCX silver recorded a 4.2% gain last month to settle at ₹1,48,399 per kg.

As observed last month, the Comex gold price got into a pullback phase, which was warranted as the price was extremely overbought in the short term. The recent pullback and consolidation have addressed this overbought scenario to a major extent and price could resume its upward trajectory soon.

The long-term trend remains positive, and the price could head toward the next target of $4,450-4,500. A fall below the immediate support at $3,820 would be an early signal that the price is still in a consolidation phase, and the eventual move towards the next target zone would be delayed a bit. Comex silver price moved in sync with expectations, and the price witnessed a cool-off in the latter half of October. The recent pullback in price is likely to sustain for a few more weeks before the long-term uptrend resumes. A fall below $45 could push the price into a more prolonged consolidation phase. The silver price is likely to head to the next target of $57-$59 once the ongoing consolidation phase is over.

All-time high

Domestically, the MCX gold price, too, hit an all-time high and crossed the psychological ₹1,30,000 level in mid-October before cooling off in the past few weeks. The recent pullback in price is likely to sustain for a few more weeks before the resumption of the long-term uptrend. A fall below ₹1,15,000 would be an early signal that the cool off in price could get more prolonged, but the MCX gold price could eventually head to the target of the ₹1,38,000-₹1,40,000 range.

In sync with expectations, the MCX silver price, too, got into a corrective phase and eased from a high of ₹1,70,415 to the current level of ₹1,48,399. Expect the silver price to consolidate in a range for a few more weeks. The long uptrend would resume once the anticipated consolidation is over. The next target for MCX silver is ₹1,78,000-₹1,82,000.

To summarise, both gold and silver are likely to continue their recent pullback before the long-term uptrend resumes.

(The author is a Chennai-based analyst/trader. The views and opinions featured in this column are based on the analysis of short-term price movement in gold and silver futures at COMEX & Multi Commodity Exchange of India. This is not meant to be a trading or investment advice.)

Gold prices on Wednesday (October 29, 2025) rebounded by ₹2,600 to ₹1,24,400 per 10 grams in the national capital, snapping a two-session losing streak, amid a fresh wave of safe-haven buying ahead of the policy outcome by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Gold of 99.5% purity appreciated by ₹2,600 to ₹1,23,800 per 10 grams (inclusive of all taxes) from the previous close of ₹1,21,200 per 10 grams, according to the All India Sarafa Association.

The precious metal of 99.9% purity had settled at ₹1,21,800 per 10 grams on Tuesday (October 28, 2025).

“Gold prices rebounded on Wednesday, reclaiming the psychological level of $4,000 per ounce ahead of the highly anticipated FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) policy meeting outcome,” Saumil Gandhi, senior analyst – commodities at HDFC Securities, said.

Silver also witnessed a sharp rebound as prices surged by ₹6,700 to ₹1,51,700 per kilogram (inclusive of all taxes). The white metal had ended at ₹1,45,000 per kg on Tuesday, as per the association.

Mr. Gandhi said bargain buying and a renewed demand for safe-haven assets, following rising geopolitical concerns in the Middle East region.

In the international markets, spot gold climbed by $77.26, or 1.95%, to $4,029.53 per ounce, ending a three-day losing streak.

“Spot gold is currently trading around at $4,020 per ounce as the metal tries to recover from its Tuesday’s low of $3,886 ahead of the FOMC monetary policy decision due tonight.

“The Fed is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points as it has turned its focus on the weakening job market,” Praveen Singh, head of commodities and currencies at Mirae Asset Sharekhan, said.

The metal is still not out of the woods, though a Fed rate cut will limit the downside, he added.

Meanwhile, the dollar index rose 0.15% to 98.82 ahead of the Fed outcome, while optimism over signs of easing U.S.-China trade tensions may cap further upside in safe-haven demand, analysts said.

Spot silver rose by 2.85% to $48.40 per ounce in the overseas markets.

Persistent geopolitical risks also remain after the U.S. Senate again failed to clear a Republican-backed bill to end the government shutdown.

The White House cancelled a planned meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin after fresh sanctions were imposed on Moscow’s top oil companies, which might continue to support the precious metal, according to experts.