Gold, silver retreat before a likely rally

Precious metals continued their upward journey in the first half of October, with both gold and silver reaching fresh all-time highs. The prices cooled off subsequent to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision being announced. The firming up of the U.S. dollar too played a part in the recent cool-off from the all-time highs.

Comex gold zoomed past the psychological $4,300 mark earlier in the month and closed at $4,013.4 by the end of October. This represents a gain of 3.24%. Comex silver gained 3% to settle at $48.25 last month. Mirroring the trend in the global markets, the MCX gold price gained 3.4% to settle at ₹1,21,284 per 10 grams. MCX silver recorded a 4.2% gain last month to settle at ₹1,48,399 per kg.

As observed last month, the Comex gold price got into a pullback phase, which was warranted as the price was extremely overbought in the short term. The recent pullback and consolidation have addressed this overbought scenario to a major extent and price could resume its upward trajectory soon.

The long-term trend remains positive, and the price could head toward the next target of $4,450-4,500. A fall below the immediate support at $3,820 would be an early signal that the price is still in a consolidation phase, and the eventual move towards the next target zone would be delayed a bit. Comex silver price moved in sync with expectations, and the price witnessed a cool-off in the latter half of October. The recent pullback in price is likely to sustain for a few more weeks before the long-term uptrend resumes. A fall below $45 could push the price into a more prolonged consolidation phase. The silver price is likely to head to the next target of $57-$59 once the ongoing consolidation phase is over.

All-time high

Domestically, the MCX gold price, too, hit an all-time high and crossed the psychological ₹1,30,000 level in mid-October before cooling off in the past few weeks. The recent pullback in price is likely to sustain for a few more weeks before the resumption of the long-term uptrend. A fall below ₹1,15,000 would be an early signal that the cool off in price could get more prolonged, but the MCX gold price could eventually head to the target of the ₹1,38,000-₹1,40,000 range.

In sync with expectations, the MCX silver price, too, got into a corrective phase and eased from a high of ₹1,70,415 to the current level of ₹1,48,399. Expect the silver price to consolidate in a range for a few more weeks. The long uptrend would resume once the anticipated consolidation is over. The next target for MCX silver is ₹1,78,000-₹1,82,000.

To summarise, both gold and silver are likely to continue their recent pullback before the long-term uptrend resumes.

(The author is a Chennai-based analyst/trader. The views and opinions featured in this column are based on the analysis of short-term price movement in gold and silver futures at COMEX & Multi Commodity Exchange of India. This is not meant to be a trading or investment advice.)