Mixed bag for precious metals in May: Gold price dips, silver rises

It was a mixed bag for precious metals in May. While gold prices lost sheen in May and slid to a 2-month low before recovering towards the end of the month, silver managed to hold ground. The uncertainty around the conflict in West Asia had a key role in keeping precious metals price under check.

Comex gold closed 1.43% lower to $4,569.9 by May end. Comex silver gained 1.8% to settle at $75.58.

The performance of the metals in the local market was much better owing to weakening of the Rupee against the U.S. Dollar and the rise in the import duty on gold and silver.

MCX Gold gained 4.3% to ₹1,61,049 per 10-gram. MCX Silver closed on a positive note at ₹2,67,000 a kilogram, representing a 9.14% gain last month.

Comex gold price continues to oscillate within the extremes of the $4,400-$5,650 range. The price has consolidated for a while now and a trending move can start soon. Considering the medium to long term trend is still positive, an upside breakout is likely.

As long as Comex gold price sustains above $4,310, expect a rally to immediate target of $4,650-$4,720. The next higher targets are at $4,790-$4,830. A drop below $4,300 would warrant reassessment of the medium-term positive outlook.

Comex silver price too is stuck in $71-$90 range for the past few weeks. The long-term uptrend in silver would resume only after a breakout above $92. Until then, expect volatile price action within the $71-$90 range.

As anticipated last month, MCX gold price touched the short-term target of ₹1,53,000-₹1,55,000. Except for a big spike post import duty hike, gold price was largely listless in the local market. The price is still confined within the broad range of ₹1,45,000-₹1,75,000. Only a breakout from this range would trigger the next big directional move in gold.

MCX silver price too spiked up post import duty hike but cooled off in the past few weeks. Though there is a possibility of the price heading to the short-term target of ₹2,80,000-₹2,80,500, expect a meaningful uptrend to resume only after a breakout above ₹3,10,000. A drop below ₹2,03,000 would weaken the medium-term outlook for silver.

Conclusion

Both gold and silver are still range bound while the long-term trend stays positive. While there can be a short-term bounce in precious metal prices, there are no signs yet of any resumption of longer-term uptrend.

(The author is a Chennai-based analyst/trader. Views and opinion here are based on an analysis of short-term price movements in gold and silver futures at COMEX & Multi Commodity Exchange of India. This is not meant to be a trading/investment advice.)