Gold shines as dollar slips to 5-week low, investors await U.S. midterm election results

Gold prices rose 3% on Wednesday (November 4, 2026) following the biggest decline in the dollar index in over a month as investors awaited U.S. midterm election results. The dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, slipped to a 5-week low of 101.3 on Wednesday (November 4, 2026). A weaker dollar makes dollar-denominated assets like gold less expensive for consumers of other currencies, boosting demand for the yellow metal.

Spot gold surged 3% on Wednesday (November 4, 2026) to $4,041 per ounce, marking the biggest daily gain in over 2 months. On October 30, gold prices hit a one-year low amid increasing deceleration in global AI and tech stocks as investors reassessed valuation concerns.

“It’s premature to say it’s a trend reversal. Today’s price movement suggests the initial market reaction to the midterm election results. Once the results are out and we have more clarity on policies from the U.S. administration and their stance on the U.S.-Iran war, that could potentially determine the next trend,” Manoj Jain, director, head of commodity and currency research at Prithvi Finmart Private Limited, said. Analysts note gold prices are expected to continue the rally next week as well.

Midterm Results to Shape Gold’s Outlook 

The U.S. midterm election results so far showed a sweeping victory for the Democrats in both the Senate and House. According to estimates by NBC News, Democrats are poised to win at least 258 seats. A party needs a minimum of 218 seats to secure a House majority, which now puts the Democrats in a comfortable position for victory.

“A lot of uncertainty and policy worries will come down post-results. Precious metals are expected to stabilise by year-end given crude prices settle below $100 a barrel and Strait of Hormuz opens up,” Mr. Jain said.

Lower crude prices could ease inflationary pressures and influence expectations around the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory, while the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could reduce geopolitical risk premiums. However, the impact on gold may be mixed, as easing geopolitical tensions could also reduce safe-haven demand.

The direction of U.S. Treasury yields, real interest rates, and the dollar will therefore remain important factors in determining whether the recent recovery in gold prices develops into a sustained rally or remains a short-term rebound.

Mr. Jain also added that, ahead of the festive and marriage season in India, demand for gold is expected to remain elevated, with prices in Indian markets to consolidate near ₹1,30,000 per 10 grams by year end.