We expect the rupee to trade with a slight positive bias as domestic markets are trading at fresh record highs with fresh FII inflows. File
| Photo Credit: Raghunathan S.R.
The rupee declined 7 paise to close at 83.92 (provisional) against the greenback on Monday (September 2, 2024) on disappointing domestic macroeconomic data.
However, positive domestic markets, wherein both the benchmark indices scaled lifetime high levels and foreign fund inflows cushioned the downside.
Moreover, easing crude oil prices and weakness of the American currency in the overseas market supported the local unit and restricted further slide.
At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened 2 paise lower at 83.87 against the American currency. It rose to the intra-day high of 83.85 but pared gains and slipped to the day’s low of 83.93 before settling at 83.92 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar, registering a decline of 7 paise over its previous close.
“Indian rupee depreciated by 7 paise on Monday (September 2, 2024) on positive U.S. Dollar and disappointing macroeconomic data,” said Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.
India’s manufacturing sector growth moderated in August as output and sales rose at slowest rates since January, while competitive pressures and inflation concerns hampered business confidence, a monthly survey said on Monday (September 2, 2024).
The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) stood at 57.5 in August, below July’s reading of 58.1.
“We expect the rupee to trade with a slight positive bias as domestic markets are trading at fresh record highs with fresh FII inflows. A weak tone in crude oil prices may also support the rupee. However, any recovery in the U.S. Dollar may cap sharp upside,” Mr. Choudhary added.
Meanwhile, in the domestic equity markets, Sensex climbed 194.07 points to settle at a new all-time closing high of 82,559.84, while Nifty rose 42.80 points to hit its fresh record peak of 25,278.70.
The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, dipped marginally by 0.06% to 101.64.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell 0.23% to 76.75 in futures trade.
On the domestic macroeconomic front, gross goods and services tax (GST) collections in August grew 10% to about ₹1.75 lakh crore on Sunday (September 1, 2024), reflecting higher domestic consumption.
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Friday (August 30, 2024), as they purchased shares worth ₹5,318.14 crore, according to exchange data.
Meanwhile, the Centre’s fiscal deficit at the end of the first four months of the current fiscal year touched 17.2% of the full-year target, according to data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA).
India’s forex reserves jumped USD 7.023 billion to touch a new high of USD 681.688 billion in the week ended August 23, according to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data released on Friday (August 30, 2024).
