Flávio Bolsonaro | The Lula challenger

In Brazil’s political circles, Flávio Bolsonaro is known as ‘01’ for being the first-born son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. But he has been number one only figuratively. It was always presumed that Jair’s political heir would be his third son, Eduardo or ‘03’, who is now in hiding in the U.S., while Carlos or ‘02’, was seen as his father’s ideological heir. Flávio has long kept a lower political profile than his brothers — and even than Michelle, Jair’s third wife, who once fancied herself as a presidential candidate.

With Jair Bolsonaro barred from running for office while serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup against President Lula da Silva, Eduardo facing prison if he returns to Brazil, and Carlos lying low after a series of scandals, the onus of keeping the family name active in politics suddenly fell on Flavio after a nasty fallout with Michelle. Nobody chose Flavio to lead Brazil’s far-right. The role came to him accidentally.

Now, on October 4, Flavio, 45, faces Luiz Inácio ‘Lula’ da Silva, the 80-year-old leftist President, in the presidential elections. On the eve of the elections, Lula was leading Flávio by five points, with a tighter race expected if the contest goes to the second round.

Whatever the outcome, this election is the defining moment of Flávio’s life, taking him from the shadows of his father to the centre of Brazilian politics. Flávio entered politics in 2002, winning a seat in Rio de Janeiro’s state legislature and serving four terms before moving to the Federal Senate in 2019.

Throughout his career, his identity has remained tied to the Bolsonaro brand, which got a huge boost with Jair’s stunning victory in 2018. But even as Jair’s presidency turned the family into a powerful political clan, Flávio remained a low-profile figure. “Flávio doesn’t have a past; he doesn’t have a present and no future too. He has not done any work in his life. He is not qualified to be President,” Lula said of his rival on a podcast watched live by 10 million people on Thursday.

Flávio has made little effort to build a political identity of his own. He is campaigning on the Bolsonaro name and following the template created by his father: pro-business, aligned with the U.S. and Israel, and deeply reliant on evangelical churches, whose growing influence has often put them at odds with Brazil’s Catholic establishment. The strategy put Flávio on the defensive last week when it was reported that he planned to strip Nossa Senhora Aparecida (Virgin Mary) of her status as Brazil’s patron saint. Amid a massive backlash and loss of support among the Catholic voters, Flávio insisted: “I am a Christian; I am evangelical, but I respect all religions.”

Trump’s support

One area where Flávio has gone further than his father is in openly seeking Donald Trump’s support and closer alignment with U.S. During his visit to the White House in May, he discussed tariffs and rare-earth minerals with Mr. Trump, presenting Brazil as a strategic alternative to China. “Brazil is the solution for the U.S. to no longer depend on China for critical minerals,” Flávio said during the visit.

Also Read | Brazil’s Lula blasts Flavio Bolsonaro for requesting U.S. tariff delay

That stance and the prospect of a Trump-style government aligning Brazil closely with other right-wing governments in the region have raised concerns in the country. “If Flavio is elected, it would be a disaster as it would mean the victory of a group of politicians marked by incompetence and corruption… it could even lead to the destruction of our sovereignty,” development economist Paulo Nogueira Batista said this week.

Like his father and brothers, Flavio, too, is being dogged by serious allegations about his links to Daniel Vorcaro, a scandalous banker who is now in prison. He has also faced allegations of links to Rio’s militia. Flavio has denied the allegations, but his popularity graph which was rising till a few days back, has now gone flat. Technically, he can still win the presidency.

Flavio Bolsonaro got the title of ‘01’ by the accident of his birth in the Bolsonaro family; he could also become President of Brazil by the accident of politics and his family’s circumstances.