Close fight on the cards in Kerala’s bellwether constituency — Ollur

One of the most intriguing contests in the upcoming Kerala Assembly election is expected in Ollur constituency in Thrissur district — a seat widely regarded as a bellwether of the State’s political mood.

Though there is no scientific basis to the claim, Ollur has built a reputation since 1982 for electing candidates from the front that eventually forms the government in the State.

In 1982, when the United Democratic Front (UDF) led by K. Karunakaran came to power, Ollur elected Congress candidate Raghavan Puzhakadavil. In 1987, when the Left Democratic Front (LDF) led by E.K. Nayanar formed the government, voters backed Communist Party of India (CPI) candidate A.M. Paraman.

The trend continued in subsequent elections as well. P.P. George (Congress) won in 1991, C.N. Jayadevan (CPI) in 1996, P.P. George again in 2001, Rajaji Mathew Thomas (CPI) in 2006 and M.P. Vincent (Congress) in 2011 — each victory aligning with the coalition that eventually formed the government in Kerala.

In 2016, CPI’s K. Rajan wrested the constituency from the Congress in 2016 and retained it in 2021. Mr. Rajan, who is at present Kerala’s Revenue Minister, is seeking re-election from Ollur.

Unique profile

The constituency’s unique social and geographical profile makes it politically complex. Located on the outskirts of Thrissur city, Ollur blends urban and rural characteristics. The constituency stretches from the industrial belt of Ollur town to the paddy fields and hilly terrain from Pattikkad to Peechi.

The political battle here is largely between the CPI-led LDF and the Congress-led UDF, though the BJP-led NDA has gradually expanded its vote share.

Ollur initially favoured Congress-backed candidates, but the Left slowly strengthened its organisational network, particularly through labour movements. The LDF today retains a strong cadre base in working-class areas and among trade unions, while the Congress has a presence among urban voters and middle-class families.

In the 2021 Assembly election, Mr. Rajan secured a decisive victory with 76,657 votes (49.09%). Congress candidate Jose Valloor followed with 55,151 votes (35.31%), while BJP candidate B. Gopalakrishnan polled 22,295 votes (14.28%), indicating the NDA’s growing presence among urban and suburban voters.

Local issues crucial

Local issues are likely to shape the electoral contest. “Wildlife attacks and the delay in getting land titles are major issues here,” says Subhash, who runs a small eatery near Puthur.

The LDF is expected to highlight Mr. Rajan’s performance as Revenue Minister as a key campaign plank. Among the flagship projects is the Puthur Zoological Park, a wildlife habitat designed by Australian zoo architect Jon Coe. Spread across 336 acres, the park is projected as a landmark development initiative in Thrissur.

The distribution of a large number of land titles to high-range farmers is another achievement highlighted by the Left front. Infrastructure development, including the Hill Highway project passing through parts of Thrissur district, is also likely to feature in the campaign narrative.

Religious demographics play a significant role here. Ollur has a substantial Christian population, with the area often referred to locally as “Chinna Roma” or “Little Rome” because of the high concentration of Syro-Malabar Catholic families.

In local body polls

The constituency comprises four panchayats — Madakkathara, Nadathara, Pananchery and Puthur — along with nine divisions of the Thrissur Corporation and portions of a few other divisions. In the last local body elections, the LDF won two panchayats while the UDF secured the other two. The UDF, however, enjoys a slight edge in several Corporation divisions.

With its complex mix of urban and rural voters, strong religious influence and a history of switching political loyalties, Ollur once again promises to be one of the most closely watched constituencies in Kerala’s electoral battle.