Asteroid YR4 will miss the moon, too, NASA says

NASA has officially ruled out the possibility of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with the moon in 2032. This update settles concerns that first surfaced after the asteroid’s discovery in late 2024. For several months, orbital models suggested a small but notable 3.8% to 4.3% chance that the rock would strike the lunar surface on December 22, 2032.

To resolve the uncertainty, experts from NASA’s Centre for Near-Earth Object Studies used the James Webb Space Telescope to track the object. In February, the team made two important observations while the asteroid was extremely faint, a feat impossible for most other observatories. These new data points have reportedly allowed the scientists to refine the asteroid’s trajectory with higher precision.

The latest calculations show that 2024 YR4 will safely bypass the moon at a distance of around 21,200 km. This follows an earlier update regarding the earth: while data in early 2025 indicated a potential threat to our planet, subsequent analysis ruled out a terrestrial impact for the next century at least.

Astronomers have said that these shifts in probability are a standard part of planetary defence. When scientists first discover a near-earth object, they must calculate its path using limited information, which often results in a wide range of possible outcomes. As they collect more data over time, they narrow those possibilities down. In the case of the 65-meter-wide 2024 YR4, the newest evidence confirms it is no longer a threat to the earth or its moon.