The Iranians “not yet willing to actually acknowledge and work through the President’s demands”, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance said in an interview last week. On Sunday (February 22, 2026), Steve Witkoff, Donald Trump’s special envoy for West Asia and his chief negotiator with Iran, said the President was “curious” on why Iran had not capitulated under American pressure. Mr. Trump is wondering “why, under this pressure, with the amount of sea power and naval power over there, why haven’t they come to us and said, ‘we profess we don’t want a weapon, so here’s what we’re prepared to do?’” said Mr. Witkoff.
These remarks underscore growing frustration within the Trump administration over its inability to extract significant concessions from Tehran, despite substantial U.S. military build-up near Iran’s shores, including the deployment of two aircraft carrier strike groups.
The U.S. and Iran have held two rounds of talks since tensions escalated in January, but no breakthrough has been achieved. Oman, which is mediating indirect negotiations between the two sides, has confirmed that a third round will take place in Geneva on February 26.
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Mixed signals
Mr. Trump has repeatedly warned that he could resort to force if Iran fails to reach a deal. Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi have said Iran is for a “fair and equitable” agreement on its nuclear programme, but have rejected Washington’s coercive tactics. The U.S. has sent mixed signals about its objectives. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said earlier this month that the U.S. wanted discussions to cover not just Iran’s nuclear programme, but also its missile programme, its support for non-state actors in West Asia and its “treatment” of its own people. According to Mr. Witkoff, the President has given him and Jared Kushner, Mr. Trump’s son-in-law who is also part of the negotiating team, a clear direction that Iran should stop enrichment and agree to transfer its stockpile of highly enriched uranium out of the country.
The Iranians have so far, at least publicly, resisted both sets of demands. They say they are ready to talk about the nuclear programme, but only about the nuclear programme. Even on the nuclear programme, Iran says it would not give up its “right” to peaceful enrichment, and top officials, including Ali Larijani, have resisted calls for transferring its enriched uranium stockpile.
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Last deterrent
“Iran will not be ready to abandon its nuclear programme,” said a security analyst based in Tehran, who did not want to be named. “Even if Iran reaches a deal with the U.S. over its nuclear programme, Israel would still call it a threat. If Iran agrees to surrender its ballistic missiles today to avert war with the U.S., Israel will bomb Iran anyway a few months down the line. So the question Iranians ask themselves is why should they give up their last deterrent?” he said.
In 2015, Iran agreed to place limits on its nuclear programme and open its facilities for inspection as part of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Iran remained in compliance with the agreement until Donald Trump, in his first term as President, unilaterally withdrew the U.S. out of it in May 2018 and reimposed sanctions on Tehran. In 2020, the U.S. assassinated Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force and one of the most prominent military figures in the Islamic Republic. In 2025, Iran was technically in talks with the U.S. over its nuclear programme when Israel bombed the country on June 13. A few days later, the U.S. joined Israel’s war and struck Iran’s nuclear facilities. Mr. Trump then claimed that the U.S. attacks had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear programme.
“These back-to-back setbacks to the diplomatic option seems to have convinced the leader that diplomacy doesn’t work,” a Tehran-based diplomat told The Hindu, referring to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. “ There is some tension within the system, though the state is holding firm, for now. Reformists (led by President Pezeshkian and Mr. Aragchi) still believes a deal could be possible if it averts war and the U.S. agrees to lift at least some sanctions. The Iranians might be open to making concessions on enrichment and enriched uranium. But it also depends on what the White House has to offer. The hardliners are watching when the talks are unfolding.”
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Iran’s leverage
A war, by most accounts, would be disastrous for Iran, which is already grappling with internal strain amid a deepening economic crisis. The U.S. wields overwhelming firepower, with dozens of fighter jets and warships deployed to the region. Yet, Iran has its own leverage. It possesses thousands of ballistic missiles capable of striking American bases and assets across the region, as well as Israel. Iran could also disrupt or block cargo traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical international maritime chokepoint.
In his second term, Mr. Trump has attacked several countries, but he was also shown caution about getting entangled in a long-drawn conflicts. There is no guarantee he could swiftly conclude a war with Iran, particularly as Tehran has repeatedly vowed to retaliate forcefully against any attack. Nor can Washington sustain en elevated troop presence in West Asia indefinitely, particularly as the U.S. is preparing to hold midterm elections later this year.
“Iran wants to avoid war, but not at any cost,” said the Tehran-based security analyst. “If the U.S. is pursuing gunboat diplomacy through a military build-up along with talks, Iran is responding in kind —talking while preparing for war.”
Published – February 24, 2026 06:20 pm IST
