Nearly two weeks after the kidnapping of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, uncertainty hangs over South America. The unease deepened on January 16 when the U.S. warned airlines to exercise caution over parts of South and Central America, citing risks linked to potential military activity. The panic followed a series of provocative remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump, who claimed drug cartels were “running Mexico” and suggested American strikes on land targets. Earlier, he had targeted Colombia, accusing President Gustavo Petro of exporting cocaine to the U.S.
With a continent of more than 450 million people still reeling from the abduction of a sitting President, Mr. Petro responded rather bluntly to Mr. Trump. “If you detain a president whom much of my people want and respect, you will unleash the people’s jaguar,” Mr. Petro wrote on X. Later, as Mr. Trump moderated his tone a bit, Mr. Petro moved to de-escalate too, cancelling his planned trip to the World Economic Forum and, instead, focus on his planned meeting with Mr. Trump at the White House on February 3.
As the region awaits anxiously for the Trump–Petro talks, Brazil — the largest democracy and economy in Latin America — is moving on two parallel tracks – diplomatic and humanitarian – to support Venezuela. While President Lula da Silva has publicly denounced the “violation of Venezuelan sovereignty and international law,” his government is focusing on relief efforts. Brasilia has dispatched 100 tonne of medical supplies to Caracas where a major dialysis centre was destroyed during the U.S. military operation. “We cannot forget that when there was a collapse of oxygen supply in Manaus during the COVID-19 pandemic, 1,35,000 cubic metres of oxygen came from Venezuela to save the Brazilian people,” Health Minister Alexandre Padilha said as Brazil sent a planeload of supplies to Caracas.
Beyond humanitarian relief, Brazil has used the crisis to signal a diplomatic message: South America will not remain passive while a neighbouring country is reshaped by force. “Our priority right now is political and institutional stability in Venezuela and we are resisting pressure from some Western capitals to push immediately for elections or a rapid transition,” says a senior Brazilian diplomat. Meanwhile, Lula has activated multiple diplomatic channels, holding phone calls with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Russian President Vladimir Putin to coordinate opposition to the use of force and reaffirm respect for sovereignty of countries in the region.
Brazil’s response to the crisis is also embedded in its rejection of unilateralism. This was underscored on January 17 as the European Union and the South American trading bloc Mercosur signed an agreement to create one of the world’s biggest free-trade zones. Speaking at the signing, President Lula argued that in an era of rising protectionism, the agreement demonstrated that “another form of global governance is possible — more active, representative, inclusive and fair.”
Yet the region’s ability to present a unified front is being undermined by divisions within. Leaders, such as Argentina’s President Javier Milei, have openly aligned themselves with Mr. Trump. This alliance, analysts warn, risks normalising interventionist rhetoric. “Trump, being impulsive and believing in unilateral actions above all, would not be more contained even in the absence of aligned regional regimes,” says Rafael R. Ioris, professor of Latin American history at the University of Denver. “But it helps Trump to have most regional countries controlled by the Right. It provides a kind of legitimacy and puts pressure on those not yet aligned to reconsider more autonomous courses of action.”
With Brazil and Colombia both heading into crucial elections this year, the geopolitical stakes are rising. “While Trump has openly suggested possible military action against Mexico and Colombia, pressure on Brazil is likely to be subtler. These could include support for right-wing candidates and efforts to tarnish Lula’s campaign, particularly through disinformation,” notes Mr. Ioris, adding that such tactics could also backfire, as happened in Mr. Trump’s failed tariff war against Brazil.
With the Venezuelan crisis, South America is confronting a familiar challenge: the reassertion of a Monroe Doctrine–style logic in which the hemisphere is treated as a zone of U.S. influence. Regional leaders know that their response to this crisis will shape not only Venezuela’s future but South America’s place in the new world order. President Lula is leading the pushback against the framework. “In a multipolar world, no country should have its foreign relations questioned. We will not be subservient to hegemonic endeavors,” Lula wrote in an article for the New York Times on Sunday. Venezuela’s future, Lula asserted, “must remain in the hands of its people”.
Brazil’s recent dealings with Washington show both the possibilities and limits of resistance. After months of confrontation, Brazil forced U.S. to roll back its tariff. Yet observers do not see this as something that will last long. “It is true that the Lula administration made significant advances in its relationship with Trump in 2025,” says Brian Mier, a Recife-based political commentator. “Make no mistake about it, however, the U.S. wants ideological hegemony in the Western hemisphere. It wants our rare earth minerals and, especially, our petroleum.” With Brazil heading to elections in October and some opposition figures openly courting Washington, the threat of renewed pressures remains high.
The broader regional pattern only deepens these concerns. Peru has already experienced a right-wing coup, while Washington has actively sought to influence elections in favour of far-right candidates in Argentina, Ecuador, Honduras, and Chile. From Brasilia’s perspective, the logic is clear. “This is not about democracy or even oil,” says the senior Brazilian diplomat. “The real objective is to push China and Russia out, reassert the dominance of dollar and weaken the BRICS group. Venezuela is just one pressure point in an effort to drag the world back into a unipolar system where Washington sets the rules for us.”
The challenge for South America, the veteran diplomat adds, is to resist the U.S. pressure without igniting fires across the continent. Any missteps could define the region’s autonomy for a generation.
Published – January 21, 2026 05:00 am IST
