An overturning of Sri Lanka’s old political order

The National People’s Power (NPP), led by Sri Lanka’s President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, has swept the Sri Lankan parliamentary polls with an astounding majority.

The NPP’s success, built on Mr. Dissanayake’s win in September 2024 (the presidential election), was made possible by an astute reading of the ground sentiment, patient planning and execution of a smart election strategy. There is another side to this story: Sri Lanka is Asia’s oldest electoral democracy, with universal suffrage going back to 1931, and its citizenry, in an awesome political swing, have not only given the new government an overwhelming mandate but also clearly rejected the political status quo.

The elections have, more or less, cleansed the 225-member Parliament, purging the country’s arrogant old guard. While the NPP gained 159 seats (61.6% votes), the main Opposition Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) was reduced to 40 seats (17.7% votes). The parties of former Presidents Ranil Wickremesinghe and the Rajapaksas have been crushed — five (4.5% votes) and three seats (3.1%), respectively. The Ilankai Tamil Arasu Katchi (ITAK) in the north and the east, which claims to be the main Tamil voice, was reduced to eight seats (2.3% votes), with similar electoral haemorrhage in the hill country for the candidates contesting from established regional and national parties. Significantly, three women from the hill country Tamil community have been elected. The new Parliament will look drastically different from the earlier stale house of pompous old men.

Sri Lanka’s worst economic crisis since Independence has led to unimaginable political changes. Like Humpty Dumpty, the old political order has had a mighty fall and cannot be put back together. Indeed, political parties, for decades, merely served the class interests of the elite in Colombo, the geopolitical stakes of powerful global actors, and the long distance nationalist agenda of the Tamil diaspora. The historic electoral shift radically alters the political terrain. It cannot be business as usual any more. Either the NPP has to deliver on peoples’ huge expectations, or risks being displaced by polarising right-wing forces.

Historic shift

This historic election is comparable to the one in 1977 during the decade-long global economic downturn. The right wing UNP government of J.R. Jayewardene came to power with a five-sixths majority in Parliament. J.R. Jayewardene, who was the Finance Minister at Independence in 1948, had waited for almost three decades to change the political and economic history of the country with a new Constitution, a presidential system and a liberalised economy.

Similarly, Mr. Dissanayake and the JVP have been waiting for three decades since taking the parliamentary path, after being decimated during their second brutal insurrection, to finally gain state power. The economic depression and the people’s mass struggles for system change over the last three years provided the perfect storm for their rise. Will they end majoritarian policies and finally abolish the authoritarian executive presidency? Will they rebuild an inclusive economy, and depart from the neoliberal project with tremendous inequalities?

Tamil nationalist splintering

The political wave towards the NPP had started even before the presidential elections, and a parliamentary majority was widely expected. However, the more surprising result was the unimaginable shift in the northern Tamil electorate.

The NPP has become the first national party to win both electoral districts in the Northern Province, historically in the firm grip of Tamil nationalist politics. This major upset comes amid the splintering of Tamil nationalist parties. A recent factor was the projection of a “Tamil Common Candidate” in the last presidential election to avoid engaging with national politics, supposedly to show Tamil unity and gain support from international actors. The initiative failed spectacularly, as only a fraction voted for them. It further earned the wrath of its own supporters, as its “unity” crumbled soon after with the announcement of parliamentary elections. The self-serving politics of all those hiding behind Tamil nationalism was exposed by the record number of parties contesting for just the dozen seats in the north.

In reality, the fall of Tamil nationalist politics was long overdue. The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam had decimated the Tamil political leadership, including by assassinating many Tamil parliamentarians, and it was only the shell of Tamil politics that remained financed by the diaspora. These political parties could not mobilise people on the ground, and claimed they would deliver Tamil nationalist aspirations through international pressure, in forums such as the UN Human Rights Council and by lobbying in capitals, particularly New Delhi. They consistently failed to recognise the travails of their long-suffering people — the disrupted livelihoods, the abject poverty and social disintegration with no future for the youth that have marred the war-torn regions for a decade and a half.

The NPP’s victory is a reckoning that people in the north share many of the challenges faced in the rest of the country. The Tamil political elite claim that remittances from the diaspora have ensured that the war-torn people are not affected by the economic crisis.

In reality, it is a small section of the middle class with one foot in the diaspora that receive such remittances, while most rural communities grapple with joblessness, hunger and school dropouts. The NPP now has a great responsibility to demonstrate that Colombo will finally start addressing the travails and long-term grievances of the ethnic minorities.

Space for change

The NPP has now been given an exceptional mandate to deal with an unprecedented crisis. In its long march to power, it has made many promises including providing relief to people, eliminating corruption, abolishing the executive presidency, and repealing the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA). It now has the legislative strength to bring about a new Constitution, since a two-thirds majority in parliament is necessary for major amendments. The new government will have to move on a number of issues, from addressing the economic crisis to political reconciliation following the tragic civil war.

The economic challenges are formidable. And while the domestic challenges are clear, the tumultuous world order may lead to new economic shocks. The NPP leadership would do well to learn the lessons of its left-leaning predecessors. The strong United Front Government of the 1970s was wiped out in the next election by the onslaught of a global economic downturn and a capital strike by the West punishing the country for embracing the Non-Aligned Movement.

Sri Lanka is also now in unknown waters having defaulted on its external debt for the first time in its history. The straight jacket of an International Monetary Fund programme with severe austerity measures and debt restructuring privileging powerful creditors, particularly bondholders, allows little wiggle room. The bureaucracy entrenched in a pro-liberalisation state structure, may obstruct progress. The business elite in Colombo aligned to the West are nakedly extracting the working people and will be looking for every opportunity to undercut the new government.

Most of all, the global powers, whether it be India, China or the United States, from their vulture-like grabbing of Sri Lanka’s strategic assets, are likely to torpedo this centre-left regime at the first opportunity to shift the country towards their own geopolitical interests. The island-nation and its people have gone through much turmoil during the past decades, and they should be given the space to find their own democratic way out of the crisis.

For now, these great powers need not support the rebuilding of the country. If they can end their cynical tutelage and hegemonic manoeuvring, and instead focus on democratising their own countries, that itself would allow Sri Lanka to move forward.

Ahilan Kadirgamar is a political economist and Senior Lecturer, University of Jaffna, Sri Lanka