The BRICS summit in Russia set the stage for an ice breaker between PM Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping.
The MEA announced: “An agreement has been arrived at on patrolling arrangements along the Line of Actual Control in the India-China border areas, leading to disengagement and a resolution of the issues that had arisen in these areas in 2020.”
Why was this meeting important?
This was their first since 2019, when they had held a 2 day retreat in Mamallapuram and then in Brasilia at the BRICS Summit there.
Prior to the 2020 standoff that followed China’s transgressions at the LAC and India’s counter mobilisation, Modi and and Xi had met 18 times in 5 years- so the fact that they hadn’t met formally in the past 5 years is significant.
During the standoff they spoke twice, informally on the side-lines of summits in Indonesia and South Africa.
India has consistently held that “normal” ties including summit meetings can only begin once the LAC standoff is resolved.
At the end of their meeting here’s what India and China have announced:
Patrolling will restart in the last two friction points of Depsang and Demchok (Maps), back to 2020 levels
Disengagement at the other 5 friction points had taken place already:
1. Galwan Valley June 2020.
2. Pangong Tso February 2021- Disengagement- with buffer zone created
3, Kailash Ridge heights February 2021- Indian troops climbed down
4. Gogra Post August 2021: PP 17A-Disengagement- with buffer zone
5. Hot Springs September 2022: PP 15- Disengagement- with buffer zone
They agreed that this ends the disengagement process and they would now work on the next steps of de-escalation (thinning of troops) and de-induction (pulling back) to peace-time levels
Xi and Modi directed the Special Representatives NSA Doval and Wang Yi, who is also a senior politburo member of the CCP to meet and discuss the broader boundary dispute at an “early date”
They directed Foreign Ministers Jaishankar and Wang Yi to meet soon to discuss restarting other mechanisms of dialogue, and to “rebuild ties”
The next steps towards normalisation of ties- will also be taken up by the two sides.
What are those steps, that have been slowed or suspended in the past 4 years?
Travel links- direct flights were suspended due to Covid but never resumed due to the border
Visas- slowdown in issuance of visas for businesspersons, students, etc
Tourism has been virtually suspended between the two countries
Journalists have been sent back from Delhi and Beijing, with only one Indian agency remaining in China
Investment restrictions and special scrutiny of any Chinese investment above 25%
Is peace breaking out between the world’s two most populous nations? There are still some unanswered questions-
1. What steps or CBMs will the two armies take to ensure the disengagement is permanent? For India the terrain and infrastructure means it would take longer to re-induct troops if needed in the future
2. Will buffer zones, that were created in order to stabilize the border situation be dismantled or maintained? And if the buffer zones remain, how can the government claim they have restored pre-2020 levels?
3. How would India ensure there isn’t a repeat of the Doklam disengagement, where after an agreement to disengage from the friction point, the PLA doubled down on infrastructure on the Doklam plateau, turning grasslands into settled villages, bunkers and helicopter bases
4. Does India have clarity on what could have prompted the Chinese PLA’s aggressive actions in April 2020 ? If not, how can India be sure these will not create a new situation in the future?
The détente rushed to deadline for the BRICS summit certainly proved that groupings like the BRICS are an important forum as they provide the venue for bilateral resolutions- what were some of the other important takeaways from the Summit in Kazan:
With 10 BRICS leaders, 13 countries joining as BRICS Partners and about 40 others attending the outreach with the global south, the Summit proved that Russia and Mr. Putin are not isolated
134 Para joint statement that included a strong criticism of Israel’s military offensive on Gaza and civilian casualties, while separate national positions on Russia’s war in Ukraine
BRICS focussed on economic integration, including use of BRICS nation currencies, BRICS Bank NDB, BRICS Interbank Cooperation Mechanism (ICM), BRICS Grain Exchange, BRICS Cross-Border Payment System and BRICS Insurance Company
A push for Reform of Financial architecture like IMF and World Bank and global governance of UN and Security Council
Bilateral opportunities including the introduction of Iran’s new President Pezeshkian amidst the west Asian crisis, and India-China talks.
Worldview Take:
The announcement that a resolution to the India-China military standoff since 2020 is in sight, is no doubt a positive development and a win for diplomats negotiating the outcome. What’s important from this point on is to see some transparency in the implementation of that resolution, and complete vigilance and verification of actions on the ground. India has been burnt in the past before- trust between two countries is the only guarantor of successful bilateral relations between them.
Reading Recommendations:
1.Understanding The India-China Border: The Enduring Threat of War in the High Himalayas by Manoj Joshi
2. India and China at Odds in the Asian Century: A Diplomatic and Strategic History by Vappala Balachandran
3. Contested Lands: India, China and the Boundary Dispute by Maroof Raza
4. INDIA-CHINA BOUNDARY PROBLEM, 1846-1947 by A.G. Noorani
5.The Fractured Himalaya: India Tibet China 1949-62 by Nirupama Rao
6.The Long Game: How the Chinese Negotiate: How the Chinese Negotiate with India by Vijay Gokhale
Presentation and production: Suhasini Haidar
Editing: Shibu Narayan and Sabika Syed
Published – October 25, 2024 09:58 pm IST
