The US election campaign takes a deadly turn- with Trump and his new Vice President choice surging in the polls after the assassination attempt, and pressure building on President Biden to step aside for another candidate- what are the major issues for voters, and what will decision 2024 in the US mean for India?
This week we are looking at the turmoil in America- with less than 4 months to election day, it seems nothing is certain, not even who the final candidate lineup may be
First- to the shocking assassination attempt on former US President Donald Trump as he was giving a speech in Pennsylvania. Pumping his fist as he was taken away from the stage, Trump was recast as an American hero, seeing a further bump in his ratings. Trump is the third US President to have been injured in an assassination attempt, four Presidents have been killed in the past
Second- Trump announced his Vice-Presidential candidate- JD Vance, author of Hillbilly Elegies, married to Usha Chilukuri , daughter of Indian immigrants. Vance was a never-trumper, now a US Senator, who endorsed Trump whole heartedly at the Republican National Convention this week
Finally, Trump was formally nominated at the RNC- he accepted, with a message of unity, which included a few swipes at the Biden administration
Across the political battlefield- the Democrats and President Joseph Biden have had compounding problems with the campaign
First, a disastrous Biden-Trump debate which sparked concerns about Biden’s frail health and grip on issues, which Biden sought to dispel
Followed by criticism over the Trump assassination bid and faulty security, even being blamed for instigating the assassin, who was actually a registered republican
And then, President Biden was hit by Covid, and had to quarantine right when he should have been out campaigning.
So if Trump is up, and Biden down, is he also out? Thats the big question-
The triple whammy has convinced many senior democrats to push Biden to step down from the candidature which could happen quickly- who could take over? It could either be VP Pick Kamala Harris, or an open convention to select the new team anytime up to the DNC August 19-22.
Here are the latest polls then- as you can see when you scroll, it’s at present all red- with Trump up between 2 and 6 points.
What according to voters polled are the big issues?
1. Inflation and unemployment
2. Immigration
3. Access to abortion/ reproductive rights
4. Gun violence/Gun rights
5. Climate change/energy
6. Israel/Gaza*
7. Russia/Ukraine
8. Trade and Tariffs- China
9. Taxes
10. Crime figures
Impact on India – of those 10 issues, 5 have foreign policy implications, that could actually impact India
1. Trump’s promise of a crackdown on immigrant numbers and illegal aliens, closing the borders is likely to be of concern, as also the violence that anti-immigrant speech spurs.
2. Biden pushed for green energy, funding India’s renewable transition, whereas Trump, who walked out of the Paris accords last time around will push for more oil- in his words, drill, baby, drill
3. On Israel/Gaza, Trump will probably pay less heed to civilian casualties of Palestinians, but may push Israel more for a deal for a ceasefire, including with Saudi Arabia, as he did in the past, and get tougher on Iran- India watching closely what either can do to bring peace and actualize the IMEEC corridor
4. Biden has committed to funding Ukraine for as long as it takes, and taken a stern view of India-Russia ties and PM Modi’s Moscow visit, so a Trump win will be a relief for New Delhi, especially given the criticism from US Ambassador to India Eric Garcetti last week, about India and strategic autonomy
5. And on China, Trump policy is likely to be tougher on China when it comes to trade and tariffs, but perhaps not as hard on Taiwan and Chinese aggression in the South China Sea- judging by comments his Vice President nominee made recently. Trump revived the Quad, but Biden raised its profile, and given it is India’s turn to host the Quad summit next, New Delhi will be keen to see the new president visit here soon.
No mention of India in Trump’s RNC speech, but on 3 other issues, India will watch closely
6. Human Rights- Trump won’t push India on Human Rights issues the way the Biden administration has – religious freedom etc., although Trump is likely to be more intrusive on the issue of India’s cutting FCRA licenses to Christian charities that form his base.
7. Pannun case- While the trial in the Pannun case will go on regardless of who is in power, it is possible a Trump administration will be easier on the public messaging over transnational repression
8. Transfer of technology- Biden has committed to transferring technology to India without strings attached, whereas Trump might want to extract more assurances impose costs to the deal- as he has done in the past, even threatening sanctions over India’s oil imports from Iran, which the Modi government acceded to
WV Take:
The next few months will see more turmoil in the US elections- at a time the India-US relationship is seeing a slump of sorts, that isn’t good news, but no matter who wins the elections, there is ample opportunity to pick up ties, given that New Delhi has dealt well with both the Trump Administration as well as the Biden ones. All eyes now will be on whether there will be a new contender to deal with from the Democrats, and what their track record on foreign policy and India ties says.
WV Reading Recommendations:
On Trump and Biden:
The Last Politician: Inside Joe Biden’s White House and the Struggle for America’s Future by Franklin Foer
The Fight of His Life: Inside Joe Biden’s White House by Chris Whipple
PERIL by Bob Woodward, also Fear and Rage
All in the Family: The Trumps and How We Got This Way Hardcover – Import, 30 July 2024 by Fred C. Trump III
The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict by Elbridge A. Colby
The Internationalists: The Fight to Restore American Foreign Policy After Trump by Alexander Ward
On India-US ties:
Open Embrace: India-US Ties: India-US Ties in a Divided World by Varghese K. George
Friends with Benefits: The India-US Story by Seema Sirohi
A Matter Of Trust: India-US Relations from Truman to Trump by Meenakshi Ahamed
Script and Presentation: Suhasini Haidar
Production: Gayatri Menon and Shibu Narayan
