As the last full day of campaigning dawned, the U.K.’s Conservative Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, faced with the prospect of a crushing defeat at the hands of the opposition Labour Party , said he was still “fighting hard for every vote”.
Earlier in the day, one of his Cabinet colleagues, Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride, had told the BBC that the Conservatives should focus on the kind of opposition party they would become, with Labour on its way to getting the “largest majority that this country has ever seen”. On July 2, former Home Secretary Suella Braverman had said the election was “over”.
“What Mel was doing was warning of what a very large Labour majority, unchecked, would mean for people,” Mr. Sunak said on July 3, in an interview with ITV, as the six-week campaign began drawing to a close.
Although the U.K. has had the highest tax burden in 70 years under the Conservative government, the last stretch of the Conservative campaign has focused on warning Britons that Labour as a party of taxation, should not be given such a large majority.
“24 hours to top the tax-raising Labour supermajority,” Mr. Sunak said on X.
Mr. Sunak, the fifth Prime Minister in his party’s 14 year rule, and at risk of losing his own seat in Yorkshire, has been trying to reach out to workers by visiting warehouses and supermarkets in the last few days of the campaign.
Britons have struggled with a cost of living crisis, high taxes and crumbling public services, including long waits to see doctors in the National Health Service. Immigration and borders are also a politically sensitive issue with the some parties blaming migrants for the drain on public services. Both the major parties have promised checks on migration, with the Conservatives also promising an annual cap on legal migration.
Labour has consistently enjoyed an approximately 20 point lead over the Tories in polling. With support for the Conservative Party is at a low, Mr. Sunak appeared to cut his losses when he surprised many by calling an election six weeks ago, months ahead of when it was expected.
A July 2 Survation poll predicted just 64 seats for the Tories (down from 365 in 2019), with a record 484 for Labour. The poll is one of several recent surveys that used a relatively new statistical technique called multi-level regression and post stratification or MRP, which allows for differences in local voting preferences. The Labour party , by some projections, is set to outdo its 1997 landslide victory when, under Tony Blair, it won 418 seats to defeat the John Major Tory government.
Labour Leader Keir Starmer, who is likely to become Britain’s Prime Minister on Friday (July 5), had a hectic day of campaigning planned, that began in Wales, and ended in England, with stops in Scotland en route.
Labour Party leader Keir Starmer, center, arrives with First Minister of Wales Vaughan Gething, right, and and local parliamentary candidate for Carmarthenshire, Martha O’Neil, left, for a visit to the West Regwm Farm Events Venue in Whitland, Carmarthenshire, while on the General Election campaign trail, in Wales, on July 03, 2024.
| Photo Credit:
AP
Standing beside the First Minister of Wales, Vaughn Gething, Mr. Starmer talked about the “double benefit” of having two Labour leaders working together. “When we saw what might happen with Tata Steel in the latest development, our first act was to get in touch with each other, within minutes,” he said.
The Labour leader referred to Mr. Sunak allegedly being too busy to take a phone call from the former First Minister Mark Drakeford, following Tata Steel’s announcement in January 2024 that it would be installing an electric arc furnace, to replace its blast furnaces, and move that would reportedly make close to 3,000 jobs redundant.
During his speech, he emphasized Labour’s central campaign theme: ‘change’, as he warned against complacency.
“We have to say over and over again, ‘Change only happens if you vote for it,’” Mr. Starmer said in South Wales, home to Port Talbot steelworks, owned by Tata Steel.
Responding to Mr. Stride and others, Labour Party leader, Mr. Starmer said the Conservatives were attempting to “dissuade” people from voting.
“That is a terrible place for the Tory party to have got to,” said.
It’s not just about Labour and the Conservatives. The Lib Dems (Liberal Democrats) and Scottish National Party (SNP) and others are also in the fray.
Lib Dem leader Ed Davey, whose campaign has style has included stunts, from bungee jumping to going down water slides, said on July 3 that coming in at third place would be “nirvana” as it would give his party the chance to ask questions in Parliament each week during Prime Minister’s Questions.
Also in the fray is Reform UK, right of the Conservative Party and led by Nigel Farage, who was the de facto leader of the U.K.’s Brexit movement. Reform is projected to win a handful of seats (up to 7), eating into the Conservative’s vote share. The anti-immigration, nativist party found itself in the middle of a controversy over the weekend, when one of its campaigners was caught on a mic using a racial slur to describe Mr. Sunak, who is the country’s first Asian British and Indian-origin Prime Minister.
This election could also gain significance for another first: the largest share of ethnic minorities in Parliament by some accounts, including several of Indian descent or born in India. Some 20-30 more MPs are likely to be ethnic minorities according to an analysis by British Future, a think tank.
“Britain is closing the gap between the diversity of Parliament and the electorate much faster than anyone thought possible,” said Sunder Katwala, Director of British Future, while he cautioned that better representation does not guarantee inclusion or the right policies.
“But a stronger share of voice does make a difference,” he said.
