It is the biggest cricketing event of the calendar year as the world’s best eight teams get ready to lock horns with one another in the ICC Champions Trophy which gets underway in Karachi from the 19th of February. The million-dollar question then is – who are the favourites to win the tournament? How much will home-advantage help Pakistan? Why are New Zealand again the Dark Horse and what is ailing Australia, England and South Africa?
India – the highest impact batting unit
India are, by some distance, the best batting unit going into the tournament. They have the best batting average and strike rate in ODI cricket since 2023 which means that not only are they scoring big but are also doing so at an alarming rate! India have crossed 350 on as many as 10 occasions in the last couple of years – the most for any team in this time-frame. They have annihilated the opposition by a margin of 100 or more runs in nine encounters while hammering them by seven or more wickets in nine more! They dominated the 2023 World Cup at home before running into Australia in the final.
India are the number one ranked ODI team in the world and at the top of their game in the format. They are in form having smashed England 3-0 at home in their last bilateral series before the Champions Trophy.
Rohit Sharma may be at the cusp of retirement in Test cricket but remains a dynamic force at the top of the order for India in ODIs – as he recently showcased with a masterclass hundred in a 300-plus chase against England in Cuttack. Kohli still boasts of the highest batting average in ODI history while no batter in the world has scored more runs than Shubman Gill since 2023. Shreyas Iyer has returned with a bang and was in scintillating form in the series against England – he is a brilliant player of spin and will be key in the middle overs in Dubai. KL Rahul and Hardik Pandya will provide the impetus at the death.
While Jasprit Bumrah‘s unavailability is a massive blow for Team India and he will be missed in crunch situations especially in the knockouts, the Men in Blue still have enough quality in the bowling department to cause trouble to any opposition line-up. Mohammed Shami may not have had the best of comebacks against England but his strike rate of 25.7 is the best in ODI cricket history for a minimum of 150 wickets! Kuldeep Yadav is Indias highest wicket-taker in ODIs since 2023 with 55 wickets in 34 innings at an average of 21.76 and economy of 4.51 while Varun Chakravarthy is at the peak of his prowess in white-ball cricket.
India will steamroll their opponents on flat decks and have high quality spinners to cause trouble on turning tracks.
Home Advantage for Pakistan?
Pakistan have two things going for them ahead of the tournament. The defending champions will be playing in familiar conditions at home in front of vociferous and passionate crowds. Secondly, the team’s batting line-up looks more stable than ever before in the last 10 years with less dependency on their two stalwarts – Babar Azam and Mohammad Rizwan.
Fakhar Zaman (4 hundreds in last 22 innings) and Salman Agha (Pakistan’s highest scorer in tri-series in February) have been in fine form in ODI cricket and this augurs well for the hosts.
However, like with all Pakistan teams of the past, their chances of making the last four will depend on their fast bowlers – on the pace trio of Shaheen Afridi, Haris Rauf and Naseem Shah. Afridi is the leading wicket-taker in ODIs since 2023 with 63 dismissals in just 30 matches while Rauf has been brilliant in the death overs with a strike rate of 13 and economy of 6.5 in this time-frame.
Pakistan have a decent record at home having won 13 of their 19 ODIs since 2021. However, this home-advantage could also turn out to be a big burden if they have an indifferent start to their campaign which begins with a tough encounter against New Zealand at Karachi.
New Zealand – Dark Horse
New Zealand’s triumph in the tri-series in Pakistan would have given a significant boost to their chances at the Champions Trophy. Kane Williamson‘s form – he scored 225 runs in the series with a hundred and a fifty – would be the biggest positive for New Zealand from the series. Glenn Phillips and Daryl Mitchell – both excellent players of spin – would be the two other batters to watch out for in Pakistan. Mitchell is the leading scorer for New Zealand in ODIs since 2023 with five tons in 30 innings at an average of close to 50 and strike rate of almost 100!
Matt Henry will lead the pace attack and has been New Zealand’s highest wicket-taker in the last couple of years with 39 dismissals in 24 matches at a little less than 25 apiece. Skipper, Mitchell Santner will be key in the middle overs and has also bagged 30 wickets at an economy of 4.76 since 2023.
New Zealand’s ability to raise their game in big ICC events and punch above their weight will make them the Dark Horse for the tournament. They have made the semi-final of the three previous 50-over World Cups and two of the last three T20 World Cups.
Absence of pace trio will hurt Australia
Australia has big reasons to worry ahead of the tournament. Not only were they humiliated in the bilateral series in Sri Lanka with their batting unit folding like nine pins but they will also be without the services of their pace trio of Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood for the Champions Trophy.
The Australian batting line-up completely collapsed in their last four ODIs against Pakistan and Sri Lanka and failed to touch 170 even once. Their over-dependency on Travis Head for a quick start at the top of the order cannot be overstated. The left-hander is their highest impact batter since 2023 with 840 runs in 19 matches at an average of 52.5 and strike rate of 128.
In the absence of the quicks, the onus of leading the bowling unit will be on Adam Zampa. The leg spinner has been in tremendous form in ODI cricket and is Australia’s leading wicket-taker since 2023 with 54 wickets in 32 matches at an average of 28.3. He was Australia’s highest wicket-taker of the 2023 World Cup.
England look at sea in the 50-over format
England have come a full circle in ODI cricket and are now exactly where they were after their early exit from the 2015 World Cup. They had a horrid 2023 World Cup finishing 7th on the table and have been in poor form in 50-over cricket in the last couple of years. England have just won 14 and lost 20 of their last 35 matches and were thrashed 3-0 by India in their last bilateral series.
The batting is a major cause of concern for England. Barring Ben Duckett, none of their other batters average above 40 since 2023. The combined batting average of their top 6 places them in the bottom cluster in this time-frame.
Top-order woes for South Africa
South Africa have had a tough run post the 2023 World Cup in India. They have lost 10 of their 14 matches which includes a home-series defeat at the hands of Afghanistan! They fared poorly in the recent tri-series in Pakistan losing to the hosts and New Zealand.
South Africa has big issues with their top and middle order with a combined average of just 28.21 in their last 14 matches. The bowling has not fared better either with an average of 34.95 placing them in the bottom cluster in this time-frame.
Prediction
India are expected to win all their encounters, top Group A and storm into the semi-final. This essentially means that the tournament opener between Pakistan and New Zealand could well be a shootout for the second semi-final spot from the group. Australia know how to raise their game in the big ICC events and should prevail in Group B which means that the clash between England and South Africa is a potential quarter-final. Unless, of course, Afghanistan are planning to write their own script!
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