Picture this: the current interim government in Syria, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), gives way to an elected government. Under this fledgling democratic setup, a phoenix-like Syria rises from the ashes of its long, bloody civil war. Millions of Syrian refugees and internally displaced people are returning home joyously; investors are trickling in; broken infrastructure is being rebuilt; signs of productivity and employment are breathing life into an economy that had been on life support for years under the misrule of former dictator-President Bashar al-Assad.
Not ideal. But certainly a dream start in a collective effort to rebuild Syria. This could be the best case scenario for Syria in the near future.
Now, consider the flip side: the HTS-led rebels, having accomplished their main mission of ousting the Assad regime, begin to implode. Factions within HTS are suddenly in a cutthroat race to outdo each other in chaos and infighting. Meanwhile, the Syrian National Army (SNA) (the Turkish-backed Free Syrian Army), and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) (the US-backed Kurdish-led alliance), aren’t just holding ground, they are flexing their muscles and making power grabs for Damascus. Russian military bases remain firmly planted along the coast, Israeli forces patrol the southern fringes, US troops stick to their northeast corner and Turkey remains a strong influence and a key player. Not to be outdone, Iran is busy trying to rebuild its covert web of influence.
This, I am afraid, could possibly be Syria’s worst-case scenario in the coming months and years.
A Game Of Chess
As 2024 draws to a close, a year that has been nothing short of seismic for West Asia, Syria stands at a crossroads—a precarious, nail-biting threshold where the future is frustratingly unpredictable.
The collapse of the Assad dynasty’s 54-year authoritarian rule has sparked a glimmer of hope for millions of long-suffering Syrians. But it’s also thrown them headfirst into uncharted waters.
If you look closely, Syria appears to be a giant geopolitical chessboard, with too many players hovering over the pieces, waiting to see who dares make the first move. For now, it’s all guesswork and a high-stakes game of wait-and-watch.
But amid Syria’s turmoil, HTS, once the al-Nusra Front, has swapped its militant garb for Western-style suits as its leader, Abu al-Jolani—who now prefers to call himself by his real name Ahmed al-Sharaa—attempts a political makeover. Western powers, while still labelling HTS a terrorist group, are taking a wait and see approach. They have laid down the terms: protect minorities, ensure a peaceful transition and maybe earn relief from sanctions. But skepticism lingers.
Turkey continues its game of geopolitical chess, backing the Syrian National Army (SNA) against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which it accuses of being a PKK front. Ankara insists the PKK, a long-time thorn in its side, be disarmed. Meanwhile, the US and UK champion the SDF cause for its role in thrashing the Islamic State terrorists. — while all the while trying to mollify Turkey’s security concerns. HTS, for its part, plays the diplomat, subtly supporting “freedom” for SDF areas while trying to keep the PKK card out of play.
The fall of Assad is a hard punch to Iran’s “axis of resistance,” slicing through its supply line to Hezbollah in Lebanon and unravelling a carefully knit network of proxies. Israel, never one to miss an opportunity, has stepped up its airstrikes—nearly 500 so far—on Syrian targets while expressing its intention to expand settlements in the Golan Heights. If anyone thought Assad’s departure would calm the waters, Israel’s actions suggest otherwise.
As for the Islamic State, rumours of its demise were premature. The Americans, who once boasted of defeating it forever, now acknowledge that the group is making a comeback, with attacks in Syria doubling in 2024.
The US, with its 900 boots on Syrian ground, is keeping a wary eye while managing detention camps teeming with Islamic State fighters and their families—a breeding ground for trouble.
Meanwhile, the UN Security Council’s 2015 resolution to work on a new Syrian constitution and elections remains unfinished business. So, watch out, as in this theatre of chaos, the script is still being written—an act that will continue even after we enter 2025—with far too many authors vying to write its final chapter.
High-Stakes Drama
West Asia has long been synonymous with power plays, ideological tussles and resource-driven strategies. The region remains a playground for US military might, still calling the shots. In 2024, brinkmanship hit new heights, with the Israel-Iran face-off narrowly avoiding a full-scale regional war.
The year also witnessed relentless violence between Israel and Hamas, with Hezbollah adding fuel to the fire. Over 45,000 Palestinians have been killed, and nearly 90% of Gaza’s population has been left homeless. On November 21, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former defence minister Yoav Gallant, accusing them of war crimes during the Israel-Hamas war—an unprecedented move against the leader of a major Western ally.
Many analysts believe Prime Minister Netanyahu’s expansionist policies and hardline stance have sparked global outrage, yet Arab support for Palestine remains inconsistent, limited to fiery rhetoric rather than meaningful action. The conflict continues to derail efforts to normalise relations between Israel and Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia under the Abraham Accords which was initiated by Donald Trump in his first term.
Fragile Peace, Lingering Rivalries
The much-lauded 2023 China-brokered rapprochement between arch-rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia is already showing cracks. In 2024, their simmering rivalries have resurfaced, with Syria at the heart of the dispute. Iran is pressuring Syria’s interim government to honour a reported $30 billion bilateral assistance deal—not so much for the cash, but to keep its foothold in a post-Assad Syria. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s attention remains divided between Yemen’s quagmire and its ‘Vision 2030’ ambitions. This fragile peace risks unravelling under unresolved tensions. Proxy conflicts in Yemen and Iraq could continue to simmer or boil over, potentially reigniting destabilising confrontations or paving the way for genuine regional integration.
US Retreat And Regional Power Shifts
Many Western analysts believe that the Biden administration’s pivot to checkmating China has left West Asia playing a game of geopolitical musical chairs. Turkey is flexing its muscles as a mediator and powerbroker, while the UAE expands its influence through savvy economic deals and security initiatives. Russia, despite internal struggles, clings on to its strategic edge with military bases in Syria. A diminished US presence creates opportunities for regional powers to step up but also risks heightening competition. As Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia vie for dominance, West Asia’s future looks more unpredictable.
Beyond Oil
OPEC production cuts in 2024 reinforced the region’s dependence on crude, even as some member nations look to diversify. Saudi Arabia’s NEOM megacity and green energy projects symbolise ambitions for a post-oil future. Success in diversification could stabilise the region, but failure would leave many nations vulnerable to socio-economic upheaval in a world moving beyond oil.
A Powerbroker In Waiting
Turkey seems to be in pole position to spearhead Syria’s reconstruction and play a significant role in stabilising West Asia. With its embassy in Damascus reopening after 12 years, Ankara is signalling its intent to play a pivotal role in Syria’s recovery from civil war and economic devastation. In the long run, Turkey’s influence is likely to grow as it navigates this complex rebuilding effort.
For Turkey and the European Union, the stakes are high. The promise of a stable Syria isn’t just about altruism; it’s a strategic necessity. During her visit to Ankara on December 17, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced an additional $1 billion in funding to Turkey for refugee support—a timely acknowledgement of Turkey’s heavy lifting. Hosting around 3.5 million Syrian refugees, Turkey has shouldered the brunt of the crisis, while the EU has absorbed over 1.5 million refugees since the conflict began in 2011.
If Turkey can balance its role as both a regional power and a bridge to the West, it could turn this moment into a diplomatic and humanitarian win. This will also have a stabilising influence in the entire West Asian countries.
Trump Factor
West Asia in 2024 stands at a crossroads. While the region faces numerous challenges—from political instability to economic dependence on oil —there are also opportunities for transformation. Whether 2025 becomes a year of renewal or regression depends on the choices made by regional and global actors alike. The Trump factor is going to have a significant say in how the new year and beyond will pan out for West Asia. So far, very mixed signals have come from the incoming Trump administration about the extent of its plans to be actively involved in the region. Until that is clear I believe no regional player will be willing to take any decisive step just yet.
But as the curtain falls on 2024, one thing is clear, West Asia will remain a region whose dynamics will continue to shape the world for years to come.
(Syed Zubair Ahmed is a London-based senior Indian journalist with three decades of experience with the Western media)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
