Venezuela on December 24 accused the U.S. of carrying out what it called the “greatest act of extortion” during an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council in New York. The accusation came after the U.S. seized two Venezuelan oil tankers in international waters. Venezuela’s Ambassador to the UN, Samuel Moncada, said the move was worse than piracy. Washington has enforced a naval quarantine on Venezuelan oil shipping and threatened to seize more tankers carrying Venezuelan oil.

Escalating tensions

Tensions between Washington and Caracas have been simmering for years and are now rising sharply, increasing fears of a possible conflict in the Caribbean. Since early September, the Trump administration has stepped up pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s government, moving beyond economic sanctions to direct military action at sea.

U.S. forces have attacked at least 21 Venezuelan boats in the Caribbean and the eastern Pacific, killing 87 people, according to Venezuelan authorities. The U.S. says the vessels were involved in drug trafficking, but it has not publicly provided evidence backing its claims.

In late October, the Pentagon rerouted the USS Gerald R. Ford, the U.S. Navy’s most advanced aircraft carrier, to the Caribbean. Around 5,000 personnel were brought closer to Venezuela. More than 15,000 U.S. troops are now deployed in the region, the largest American military presence in the Caribbean in decades.

U.S. President Donald Trump has also authorised covert action against Venezuela and warned that U.S. attacks could soon move from offshore boats to targets inside the country. At the same time, he has spoken with Mr. Maduro by phone, suggesting diplomacy has not been fully ruled out.

Roots of the crisis

The roots of the crisis go back to the era of former left-wing President Hugo Chavez. Chavez, who came to power in 1999 on an anti-poverty platform, nationalised Venezuela’s oil industry, reduced the role of American companies in the sector, and built close ties with Cuba, Russia, China, and Iran. Relations worsened further after a failed coup against Chavez in 2002, which his government accused the U.S. of supporting. Mr. Maduro, who succeeded Chavez after his death in 2013, has continued the same foreign policy. But the Venezuelan economy, under biting American sanctions, steadily deteriorated on Mr. Maduro’s watch.

The Trump administration says its actions are aimed at stopping illegal drugs from entering the U.S., framing the issue as a national security threat. Mr. Maduro, however, says Washington’s real aim is to remove him from power, not to fight drug trafficking. Trump administration officials have also said Mr. Maduro will have to go. Mr. Maduro has, however, warned that Venezuela would resist any invasion.

Washington claims Mr. Maduro leads the Cartel de los Soles, a Venezuela-based drug network designated by the U.S. as a “global terrorist organisation”. The Treasury Department has accused the Maduro government of facilitating “narco-terrorism”, while U.S. officials allege links between Mr. Maduro and criminal groups such as Tren de Aragua and Mexico’s Sinaloa Cartel. Caracas has denied the allegations as baseless, and Washington has not produced any convincing evidence.

Venezuela is not a major source of illicit fentanyl, and experts agree that Colombia and Mexico play far larger roles in global narcotics trafficking.

Strategic importance

So why is Venezuela being targeted? One major reason is the strategic importance of the South American country. Venezuela has oil, gold, and gas. It holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, estimated at about 303 billion barrels, more than Saudi Arabia’s. Although the country’s sanctions-hit oil production has drastically fallen in recent years, control over such vast reserves could affect global energy markets and reduce U.S. dependence on West Asian oil.

Geopolitics also plays a role. China and Russia have lent Venezuela billions of dollars, much of it repaid with oil shipments. Venezuela has also bought weapons and security support from Russia, Iran, China, and Cuba. For Washington, putting pressure on Mr. Maduro also means weakening the influence of these U.S. rivals in the region.

Regime change

The U.S. push against Mr. Maduro fits into a long pattern. Neither the Trump nor the Biden administrations have recognised Mr. Maduro as Venezuela’s legitimate President, claiming his government is authoritarian, corrupt, and destabilising.

In 2015, the Obama administration declared Venezuela a national security threat and imposed targeted sanctions. The first Trump administration later expanded those measures to Venezuela’s financial sector, and in 2020 U.S. prosecutors charged Mr. Maduro with narco-terrorism, offering a reward that eventually rose to $20 million for his capture.

While the Biden administration maintained most sanctions, it briefly eased some restrictions in 2023 in exchange for promised electoral reforms, which were later judged to have fallen short. Mr. Trump’s return to office this year has marked a decisive shift toward military pressure, including naval deployments, strikes on Venezuelan vessels, and explicit threats of attacks inside the country. Meanwhile, at home, Venezuela’s right-wing Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who won the Nobel Peace Prize this year, has publicly backed the U.S. military build-up.

Across Latin America, reactions are mixed. Mexico and Brazil have criticised Mr. Maduro’s governance but strongly oppose U.S. military intervention, warning it would destabilise the region. Colombia, which has recently normalised relations with Caracas, fears a large refugee flow if fighting breaks out. Argentina’s right-wing Javier Milei government has taken a tougher stance, aligning more closely with Washington’s position.

High stakes

The stakes are high for Venezuela itself. The country’s economy has shrunk by more than 75% since 2013, hyperinflation once exceeded one million percent, and an estimated seven million Venezuelans have fled abroad.

A full-scale U.S. military assault could turn out to be disastrous for both sides. The U.S. can carry out targeted air strikes weakening Mr. Maduro’s grip on power. But Venezuela maintains one of the largest standing armies in Latin America. Mr. Maduro also relies on pro-regime armed groups known as colectivos. If Mr. Maduro refuses to leave power, colectivos could complicate U.S. efforts to topple the regime and restore order. Recent examples of America’s military interventions in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya suggest that toppling the regime could be possible but rebuilding order could be not.

For now, the situation remains tense and uncertain. The crisis could worsen as Mr. Trump appears to be adamant on continuing with his policy of militarily choking the Maduro regime.

Published – December 29, 2025 12:05 pm IST

An oil tanker is docked at El Palito port in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela, Sunday, December 21, 2025. Image used for representational purpose.
| Photo Credit: AP