PLO chairman Yasser Arafat shakes hands with Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin as U.S. President Bill Clinton stands between them after the signing of the Israel-PLO peace accord at the White House in Washington on September 13, 1993.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The story so far: Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack in Israel and the latter’s continuing war on Gaza have brought the Palestine question back to the fore of West Asia. As the war has destroyed much of Gaza and killed 36,000 of its people, the world has also seen more countries voicing strong support for a future Palestine state. Recently, three European countries, Spain, Ireland and Norway, recognised the Palestine state. Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia and Jordan, say there wouldn’t be lasting peace in the region unless the Palestine question is resolved. An internationally recognised solution to the crisis is what’s called the two-state solution.

What’s the two-state solution?

The short answer is simple: divide historical Palestine, the land between the Jordan River on the east and the Mediterranean Sea in the west, into an Arab state and a Jewish state. But the long answer is complicated. Israel, a Jewish state, was created in Palestine in 1948. But a Palestine state is not yet a reality. Palestinian territories have been under Israeli occupation since 1967. So, a two-state solution today means the creation of a legitimate, sovereign Palestine state, which enjoys the full rights like any other nation state under the UN Charter.

What are the origins?

The roots of the two-state solution go back to the 1930s when the British ruled over Palestine. In 1936, the British government appointed a commission headed by Lord William Robert Peel (known as the Peel Commission) to investigate the causes of Arab-Jewish clashes in Palestine. A year later, the commission proposed a partition of Palestine into a Jewish and an Arab state. At that time, Jews accounted for some 28% of Palestine’s population. According to the Peel Commission proposal, the West Bank, Gaza and Negev desert would make up the Arab state, while much of Palestine’s coast and the fertile Galilee region would be part of the Jewish state. Arabs rejected the proposal.

After the Second World War, the U.N. Special Commission on Palestine (UNSCOP) put forward another partition plan. It proposed that Palestine be divided into three territories — a Jewish state, an Arab state and an international territory (Jerusalem). Jews, who made up roughly 32% of Palestine’s population, were to have 56% of the Palestine land as per the UNSCOP plan. The partition plan was adopted in the U.N. General Assembly (Resolution 181). Arabs rejected the plan (India voted against it), while the Zionist leadership of Israeli settlers in Palestine accepted it. And on May 14, 1948, Zionists unilaterally declared the state of Israel. This triggered the first Arab-Israeli war. And by the time an armistice agreement was achieved in 1949, Israel had captured some 22% more territories than what the U.N. had proposed.

How did it get international legitimacy?

In the 1967 Six-Day War, Israel captured the West Bank and East Jerusalem from Jordan, the Gaza Strip and the Sinai Peninsula from Egypt and the Golan Heights from Syria (Israel continues to control all territories except the Sinai which it returned to Egypt after the 1978 Camp David Accords). Palestine nationalism emerged stronger in the 1960s, under the leadership of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO).

The PLO initially demanded the “liberation” of the whole of Palestine, but later recognised the two-state solution based on the 1967 border. Israel initially rejected any Palestinian claim to the land and continued to term the PLO as a “terrorist” organisation. But in the Camp David Accords, which followed the 1973 Yom Kippur War in which Egypt and Syria surprised Israel with an attack, it agreed to the Framework for Peace in the Middle East agreement. As part of the Framework, Israel agreed to establish an autonomous self-governing Palestinian authority in the West Bank and Gaza Strip and implement the U.N. Resolution 242, which has demanded Israel pull back from all the territories it captured in 1967. The Framework laid the foundation for the Oslo Accords, which, signed in 1993 and 1995, formalised the two-state solution. As part of the Oslo process, a Palestinian National Authority, a self-governing body, was formed in the West Bank and Gaza and the PLO was internationally recognised as a representative body of the Palestinians. The promise of Oslo was the creation of a sovereign Palestinian state which would live next to the Israeli state in peace. However, this promise has never been materialised.

What are the hurdles to achieving the two-state solution?

The first setback for the Oslo process was the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin, the Israeli Prime Minister who signed the accords, in November 1995 by a Jewish extremist. Rabin’s Labour party was defeated in the subsequent elections and the right-wing Likud, under Benjamin Netanyahu’s leadership, came to power. The rise of Hamas, the Islamist militant group that opposed the Oslo Accords saying the PLO made huge concessions to the Israelis, also contributed to the derailment of the peace process. After the collapse of the Oslo process in the 1990s, there were multiple diplomatic efforts to revive the two-state plan, but none of these made progress towards achieving the goal.

Multiple reasons could be identified for this failure. But there are specific structural factors that make the two-state solution unachievable, at least for now. One is the boundary. Israel doesn’t have a clearly demarcated border. It is essentially an expansionist state. In 1948, it captured more territories than it was promised by the UN. In 1967, it expanded further by taking the whole of historical Palestine under its control. From the 1970s, Israel has been building illegal Jewish settlements in Palestinian territories. While Palestinians say their future state should be based on the 1967 border, Israel is not willing to make any commitments.

Two, the status of settlers. Roughly 7,00,000 Jewish settlers are now living in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. If Israel is to withdraw to the 1967 border, they will have to pull back the settlers. The settlers are now a powerful political class in Israeli society and no Prime Minister can pull them back without facing political consequences. Three, the status of Jerusalem. Palestinians say East Jerusalem, which hosts Al Aqsa, Islam’s third holiest mosque, should be the capital of their future Palestinian state, while Israel says the whole of Jerusalem, which hosts the Western Wall, the holiest place in Judaism, is Israel’s “eternal capital”. Four, the right of refugees to return to their homes. Some 7,00,000 Palestinians were displaced from their homes in 1948 when the state of Israel was declared. According to international law, they have a right to return to their homes. Israel says it won’t allow the Palestinian refugees to return.

While these are the structural factors that make the two-state solution complicated, on the ground, Israel’s rightwing leadership shows no willingness to make any concessions. Israel wants to continue the status quo — the status quo of occupation. The Palestinians want to break that status quo.

The story so far: Even as Israel continues to attack Southern Gaza’s Rafah, three European nations — Norway, Spain and Ireland — announced their formal recognition of Palestine as a state on May 22. The recognition is expected to take place on May 28. All three countries have urged Israel and Hamas to agree to an immediate ceasefire and allow aid to flow uninterrupted to Gaza.

Ireland’s Prime Minister Simon Harris likened Palestine’s struggle for statehood to Ireland’s fight for Independence from British rule, saying “Today, we use the same language to support the recognition of Palestine as a state” at a Dublin press conference. Ireland also recognised Israel’s right to “exist securely and at peace” with its neighbours, advising against Tel Aviv’s incursion into Rafah and rocket attacks by Hamas and Hezbollah.

Norewegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre said there was only one solution for Israelis and Palestinians alike: two states, living side by side, in peace and security. Similarly, Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez noted that recognising Palestine was a step in favour of “peace, justice and moral consistency” and not against Israelis.

With the addition of these three nations, 146 of 193 nations in the world now recognise Palestine as a state. In the wake of Israel’s war on Gaza this year, Bahamas, Trinidad and Tobago, Jamaica and Barbados have recognised Palestine as a state. Countries which have not recognised Palestine’s statehood include the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Australia, Italy, United Kingdom and Japan.

Here’s a look at Palestine’s quest for statehood, the countries which recognise it and India’s stance on the two-state question.

Palestine’s statehood journey

1922- 1948: British Mandate and Jewish migration to Palestine

In 1922, the British established a ‘mandate’ expressing support for a national home for Jewish people in Palestine, leading to large-scale migration of Jews from Eastern Europe towards Palestine. The numbers swelled in 1930s and 1940s during the Nazi regime and the World War; the immigrant inflow was opposed by the Arabs who demanded independence for Palestine. Amid continued violence, calls for partition and independence, the British who were ruling the area, roped in the United Nations (UN) to resolve the issue.

1948-1987: Israel-Palestine partition, wars and ceasefire

The UN scrapped the mandate, partitioning Palestine into two independent states – one Arab and one Jewish, with Jerusalem as a separate international entity. In 1948, the Jewish state proclaimed its independence, calling itself Israel and capturing almost 77% of the territory mandated as Palestine by the British, including major areas of Jerusalem after two wars (Palestine war and Arab-Israeli war) with several neighbouring Arab nations. The remaining areas were controlled by Jordan and Egypt and run as an Arab state. Shortly thereafter, large-scale expulsion of Palestinians from Israel-controlled areas occurred, heightening tensions in the area.

Two consecutive wars occurred in 1967 and 1973 between Israel and the Arab coalition (Syria, Egypt and Jordan). In the 1967 war, Israel captured East Jerusalem and West Bank from Jordan, Gaza and Sinai from Egypt and Golan Heights from Syria. It later annexed Golan and East Jerusalem, but retuned Sinai to Egypt in the Camp David Agreement, which followed the 1973 war.

In the 1974 UN General Assembly, the body reaffirmed the inalienable rights of the Palestinian people to self-determination, national independence, sovereignty, and return. It also awarded the political coalition Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) the status of observer in the UN Assembly. However, tensions continued as militant wings of the PLO indulged in attacks against Israeli civilians and terror attacks on Israeli territories, leading to Israeli offensive against Palestinians in 1980s.

1988-2000: Palestine declares Independence

A breakthrough was achieved when PLO chairman Yasser Arafat acknowledged Israel’s right to exist and accepted a two-state solution to the decades-long conflict. On November 15, 1988, PLO adopted the Palestinian Declaration of Independence in its National Council meeting in Algiers, electing Mr. Arafat as the first President of Palestine. Under his leadership, the PLO engaged in several negotiations with the Israeli government — the 1991 Madrid Conference, 1993 Oslo Accords and the 2000 Camp David Summit. These talks led to partial withdrawal of Israeli forces, recognition of PLO as Palestine’s representative in bilateral talks, release of prisoners and establishment of a Palestine administration for self-rule in Gaza and West Bank. But the actual promise of the Oslo Accords, the creation of an independent, sovereign Palestine state, never materialised.

2001-Present: Rise of Hamas, Palestine’s UN membership bid

In 2007, the militant group Hamas snatched control of Gaza, after its elected government was dissolved by the Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. Israel imposed an illegal blockade on Gaza in response, and Israel and Hamas have fought several wars ever since.

Tel Aviv also began expanding settlements in the West Bank while it withdrew all settlements from the Gaza Strip. As negotiations between Israel and Palestine broke down in 2010, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas applied to the UN for Palestine’s membership to the international body in 2011. Since then, the international body is yet to grant Palestine full membership. Recently, the UN Assembly adopted a resolution qualifying Palestine’s application with 143 votes favouring it, nine against and twenty-five abstaining from voting— the closest Palestine has gotten to membership.

 Which countries recognise Palestine and when?

1988-89: Recognition on declaration of Independence

When Palestine first declared Independence, several Muslim nations, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Iran, Iraq, Egypt, Yemen, Oman, Turkey, Afghanistan, Pakistan, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, and Qatar recognised Palestine. Similarly, Asian nations like India, Laos, Indonesia, China, Russia, Mongolia, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh, and North Korea recognised Palestine along with African nations like Algeria, Mali, Nigeria, Somalia, Libya, Chad, Sudan, Madagascar, Mozambique, Botswana, and Namibia.

Several Eastern European nations like Ukraine, Poland, Belarus, Romania, Hungary, Czech Republic, and Slovakia too recognised Palestine once it declared its independence. However, the West was more hesitant.

Most of these nations have cited the Palestinian people’s right to a state and PLO’s legitimate representation of the Palestinian people as the reasons they have recognised Palestine as a state. Several believe that the two-state solution is the only viable option for long-term peace in the region, and hence view Palestine’s recognition as a state as imperative.

1990s-2010: Other African nations recognise Palestine

With the signing of the Oslo Accords in 1993, other African nations like Rwanda, Ethiopia, South Africa, and Malawi recognised Palestine as a state. Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Georgia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the Philippines, too recognised Palestine as a state.

The 90s and early 2000s (prior to Hamas’s election victory in the Palestinian territories) was the most stable period in Israel-Palestine negotiations, though Israel’s occupation and settlements continued. Mr. Arafat himself enjoyed cordial relations with many African leaders; several African leaders have drawn parallels to the plight of enslaved or colonised Africans to that of Palestinians living under Israeli rule, making the state’s recognition a natural step. While almost all African nations recognise Palestine, condemnation of Israel’s attack on Gaza has not been uniform in the continent, indicating Israel’s growing influence in Africa.

2011-Present: Latin America’s ‘pink tide’ pushes the Palestinian cause

With Palestine applying for membership in the United Nations, many South American nations began recognising Palestine as a state. Several reports attribute this wave of recognition to the ‘pink tide’ — the rise of Left governments in elections. In 2010-11, Latin American nations like Brazil, Peru, Argentina, Chile, Guyana, Suriname, Ecuador, Uruguay and Paraguay recognised Palestine.

In the late 2010s, when Left governments were elected in Mexico, Columbia, Honduras, and Bolivia, a second wave of recognitions for Palestine flowed — with Mexico being the latest to recognise it in 2023.

The rise of Left politics in Latin America has escalated anti-US sentiments in some of these nations. After Tel Aviv waged war on Gaza, the heads of Latin American states have been most vocal in their condemnation. Bolivia, Colombia, Chile, Honduras, and Argentina censured Israel’s actions, with some even severing diplomatic relations with Israel.

According to international relations expert Mauricio Jaramillo, Latin America, which has usually maintained close relations with Israel, is sympathetic to the Palestine cause due to its own experience in the Cold War. Several military dictatorships backed by the US were propped up in Latin America during the Cold War, suppressing Leftist politics.

In Western Europe, Sweden (2014) and Iceland (2011) remain the only nations which have formally recognised Palestine as a state. Some western nations have hitherto held fast to the stance that Palestinian statehood was the prize for a final peace agreement in the region. However, UK Foreign minister David Cameron has indicated that the recognition of Palestinian statehood by European nations could come earlier, to help drive momentum towards a political settlement. Even France voted for Palestine’s membership to the UN in the general assembly on May 10.

However, the biggest hurdle towards recognition remains the US, which vetoed Palestine’s bid for full UN membership in April. It has privately discussed the issue with European allies but seeks clarity as to what the recognition of Palestine would mean in terms of policy, a report in the BBC suggested.

 What is India’s stance on Palestine?

In 1947, India opposed the partition of historical Palestine at the UN. It also remained a strong supporter of the Palestine cause. It became the first non-Arab nation to recognize the PLO as a legitimate representative of the Palestinian people. On its declaration of Independence, India recognised Palestine as a nation and opened its Representative office to the Palestine Authority in Gaza in 1996, later shifted to Ramallah in 2003.

India has always voted in favour of UN membership for Palestine, backing the state’s latest bid in a draft U.N. General Assembly resolution. In a first for an Indian state head, President Pranab Mukherjee visited Palestine in October 2015, while Prime Minister Narendra Modi followed in February 2018. Palestine’s President Mahmoud Abbas has visited India in 2005, 2008, 2010, 2012 and 2017.

In the Israel-Palestine dispute, India has always supported “a negotiated two-state solution towards establishing a sovereign, independent and viable state of Palestine within secure and recognised borders, living side by side in peace with Israel.” In the wake of the October 7 attack by Hamas on Israel, India condemned the attack and called for de-escalation and peaceful resolution of the conflict through dialogue and diplomacy. Seeking the release of prisoners on both sides, India has called for an ‘immediate ceasefire’ between Hamas and Israel as the death toll rose to alarmingly high levels.