The BRICS summit in Russia set the stage for an ice breaker between PM Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping.

The MEA announced: “An agreement has been arrived at on patrolling arrangements along the Line of Actual Control in the India-China border areas, leading to disengagement and a resolution of the issues that had arisen in these areas in 2020.”

Why was this meeting important?

This was their first since 2019, when they had held a 2 day retreat in Mamallapuram and then in Brasilia at the BRICS Summit there.

Prior to the 2020 standoff that followed China’s transgressions at the LAC and India’s counter mobilisation, Modi and and Xi had met 18 times in 5 years- so the fact that they hadn’t met formally in the past 5 years is significant.

During the standoff they spoke twice, informally on the side-lines of summits in Indonesia and South Africa.

India has consistently held that “normal” ties including summit meetings can only begin once the LAC standoff is resolved.

At the end of their meeting here’s what India and China have announced:

Patrolling will restart in the last two friction points of Depsang and Demchok (Maps), back to 2020 levels

Disengagement at the other 5 friction points had taken place already:
1. Galwan Valley June 2020.

2. Pangong Tso February 2021- Disengagement- with buffer zone created

3, Kailash Ridge heights February 2021- Indian troops climbed down

4. Gogra Post August 2021: PP 17A-Disengagement- with buffer zone

5. Hot Springs September 2022: PP 15- Disengagement- with buffer zone

They agreed that this ends the disengagement process and they would now work on the next steps of de-escalation (thinning of troops) and de-induction (pulling back) to peace-time levels

Xi and Modi directed the Special Representatives NSA Doval and Wang Yi, who is also a senior politburo member of the CCP to meet and discuss the broader boundary dispute at an “early date”

They directed Foreign Ministers Jaishankar and Wang Yi to meet soon to discuss restarting other mechanisms of dialogue, and to “rebuild ties”

The next steps towards normalisation of ties- will also be taken up by the two sides.

What are those steps, that have been slowed or suspended in the past 4 years?

Travel links- direct flights were suspended due to Covid but never resumed due to the border

Visas- slowdown in issuance of visas for businesspersons, students, etc

Tourism has been virtually suspended between the two countries

Journalists have been sent back from Delhi and Beijing, with only one Indian agency remaining in China

Investment restrictions and special scrutiny of any Chinese investment above 25%

Is peace breaking out between the world’s two most populous nations? There are still some unanswered questions-

1. What steps or CBMs will the two armies take to ensure the disengagement is permanent? For India the terrain and infrastructure means it would take longer to re-induct troops if needed in the future

2. Will buffer zones, that were created in order to stabilize the border situation be dismantled or maintained? And if the buffer zones remain, how can the government claim they have restored pre-2020 levels?

3. How would India ensure there isn’t a repeat of the Doklam disengagement, where after an agreement to disengage from the friction point, the PLA doubled down on infrastructure on the Doklam plateau, turning grasslands into settled villages, bunkers and helicopter bases

4. Does India have clarity on what could have prompted the Chinese PLA’s aggressive actions in April 2020 ? If not, how can India be sure these will not create a new situation in the future?

The détente rushed to deadline for the BRICS summit certainly proved that groupings like the BRICS are an important forum as they provide the venue for bilateral resolutions- what were some of the other important takeaways from the Summit in Kazan:

With 10 BRICS leaders, 13 countries joining as BRICS Partners and about 40 others attending the outreach with the global south, the Summit proved that Russia and Mr. Putin are not isolated

134 Para joint statement that included a strong criticism of Israel’s military offensive on Gaza and civilian casualties, while separate national positions on Russia’s war in Ukraine

BRICS focussed on economic integration, including use of BRICS nation currencies, BRICS Bank NDB, BRICS Interbank Cooperation Mechanism (ICM), BRICS Grain Exchange, BRICS Cross-Border Payment System and BRICS Insurance Company

A push for Reform of Financial architecture like IMF and World Bank and global governance of UN and Security Council
Bilateral opportunities including the introduction of Iran’s new President Pezeshkian amidst the west Asian crisis, and India-China talks.

Worldview Take: 

The announcement that a resolution to the India-China military standoff since 2020 is in sight, is no doubt a positive development and a win for diplomats negotiating the outcome. What’s important from this point on is to see some transparency in the implementation of that resolution, and complete vigilance and verification of actions on the ground. India has been burnt in the past before- trust between two countries is the only guarantor of successful bilateral relations between them.

Reading Recommendations:

 
1.Understanding The India-China Border: The Enduring Threat of War in the High Himalayas by Manoj Joshi

 
2. India and China at Odds in the Asian Century: A Diplomatic and Strategic History by Vappala Balachandran

 
3. Contested Lands: India, China and the Boundary Dispute by Maroof Raza

 
4. INDIA-CHINA BOUNDARY PROBLEM, 1846-1947 by A.G. Noorani

 
5.The Fractured Himalaya: India Tibet China 1949-62 by Nirupama Rao

 
6.The Long Game: How the Chinese Negotiate: How the Chinese Negotiate with India by Vijay Gokhale

Presentation and production: Suhasini Haidar

Editing: Shibu Narayan and Sabika Syed

Watch: PM Modi meets Chinese President Xi Jinping | India says peace, stability on LAC is vital

In their first formal bilateral meeting in five years, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Wednesday (October 23, 2024) welcomed the agreement for a resolution of the military stand-off at the Line of Actual Control announced earlier this week, as officials said they have now “set the process in motion for bringing [India-China] relations back to a normal path”.

In his opening remarks, Mr. Modi told Mr. Xi that maintaining peace and stability on the border should be a “priority” for both sides, but did not go into details of how the stand-off began in April 2020, when the Chinese PLA amassed troops along the LAC and transgressed the boundary, leading to a counter-deployment by the Indian Army.

In the talks held on the sidelines of the ongoing BRICS summit in Kazan, the leaders decided to restart dialogue mechanisms between Foreign Ministers and other officials to “stabilise and rebuild bilateral relations” that have been virtually suspended on most issues other than the boundary situation, the Ministry of External Affairs said in a statement after the meeting. They also tasked Special Representatives on the boundary question, National Security Adviser (NSA) Ajit Doval and Chinese Foreign Minister and senior Politburo member of the Chinese Communist Party Wang Yi to meet at an “early date” to take forward the larger questions of resolving the boundary dispute.

Editorial | ​Over the borderline: On the India-China deal 

“We believe that the India-China relationship is very important not only for our people but also for global peace, stability and progress,” said Mr. Modi. “Maintaining peace and stability on the border should remain our priority. Mutual trust, mutual respect and mutual sensitivity should remain the basis of our relations,” he added.

Mr. Modi and Mr. Xi had last met for formal talks in Mamallapuram and the BRICS Summit in Brasilia in 2019, and held unscheduled interactions at the G-20 Summit in Indonesia in 2022, and the BRICS Summit in South Africa in 2023.

Strong ties

“Both the people in our two countries and the international community are paying great attention to our meeting,” Mr. Xi began his comments, calling on both India and China as “ancient civilisations, major developing countries, and important members of the Global South” to take bilateral relations in the “right direction” as they had historically. “It is important for both sides to have more communication and cooperation, properly handle our differences and disagreements to facilitate each other’s development,” he added.

BRICS Summit 2024 LIVE updates – October 23, 2024

A readout by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs also quoted Mr. Xi as saying it was important that the two countries “see each other as an opportunity for development and do not pose a threat to each other” and “are partners rather than competitors”.

Briefing journalists in Kazan before departing for Delhi, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, who had on Monday first announced the agreement on “patrolling arrangements” and resolution of pending issues, gave more details of the breakthrough, although neither side has yet released the text of the agreement.

Mr. Misri said that after an impasse on the disengagement process in 2022, both Indian and Chinese officials had been involved in trying to find a resolution in the areas of Depsang and Demchok. He said that the “next steps” would involve “activating” bilateral mechanisms on various fronts.

While stating that the agreement would “certainly lead to an easing of the situation along the LAC”, Mr. Misri declined to comment on whether it would mean that Indian and Chinese soldiers would now not need to spend another “freezing” winter season at the boundary. “I would defer this question to our military leadership, because this relates to operational matters, and I think it would be best that we let our military leaders dwell on this particular issue,” Mr. Misri said, also side-stepping questions about the resumption of the Kailash-Mansarovar yatra or the restoration of direct travel routes between the two countries until the officials concerned meet.

When asked whether Russian President Vladimir Putin had played a “peace-making” role in the timing of the LAC agreement, which was forged between military and diplomatic officials on Monday after weeks of intense negotiations, Mr. Misri said that both sides could “certainly thank Russia for providing the venue”.

If the disengagement process, followed by the “de-escalation and de-induction” process goes ahead, officials said that they expect to see meetings between Mr. Wang and both Mr. Doval and External Affairs Minister Jaishankar in the next few weeks.

While Mr. Modi might meet Mr. Xi or Chinese Premier Li Qiang at other multilateral events in the next few months, he is also due to visit China for the SCO Heads of State Summit in 2025.

Mr. Misri said that Mr. Modi had promised “India’s full support to China’s SCO presidency” next year during the meeting on Wednesday, where both leaders were flanked by their Foreign Ministers, NSAs and other key officials.