Jharkhand is set to vote for 38 seats in the second and final phase of assembly elections on November 20, alongside Maharashtra. In the first phase, held on November 13, the state voted for 43 seats, primarily in Kolhan (14), South Chotanagpur (15), Palamu (9), and a few seats in North Chotanagpur (5). In the second phase, 20 seats in North Chotanagpur and 18 in Santhal Pargana will go to the polls.

The INDIA bloc aims to retain power, buoyed by its welfare schemes and the adivasi asmita (tribal pride) narrative. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), on the other hand, hopes to make a comeback, capitalising on allegations of non-performance and corruption against the Soren government. In the first phase, women voters outnumbered men by 4.8%. In fact, 37 of the 43 constituencies saw higher female voter turnout.

Phase 1 of polling in Jharkhand recorded a voter turnout of 66.65%, a 2.75 percentage point increase from the 2019 elections. Male voter turnout stood at 64.27%, while female turnout was 69.04%. The INDIA bloc has hailed the high turnout, claiming that women beneficiaries of the Maiyya Samman Yojana turned out in large numbers, giving them an edge. The NDA, however, attributes the high turnout to anti-incumbency sentiments.

I travelled through the state during Diwali and Chhath Puja and below are my findings.

Adivasi ‘Asmita’

The arrest of Chief Minister Hemant Soren has reignited the adivasi asmita (tribal pride) issue. In the 2024 general elections, tribals overwhelmingly voted against the NDA, with the INDIA bloc winning all five ST-reserved seats. The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) has successfully framed the narrative that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) jailed their popular Chief Minister as part of a political conspiracy. Hemant Soren has positioned himself as the preeminent tribal leader in Jharkhand. In response, the BJP is attempting to consolidate a coalition of tribal leaders, including Babulal Marandi, Arjun Munda, and Champai Soren, to counter Hemant and showcase its own tribal leadership.

Insider vs Outsider

The elections have turned into a battle between locals and outsiders. Tribals are economically disadvantaged, while outsiders occupy most government and private sector jobs and are generally more prosperous. Tribals accuse outsiders of seizing their land and prospering at their expense. The JMM is viewed as the party representing local interests, while the BJP is seen as representing the outsiders.

An Identity Battle

The lines of identity have become so sharply drawn that voters seem less concerned about the performance of their elected representatives. Despite extensive media debates on issues like anti-incumbency and MLA performance, I found that local voters were generally indifferent to these concerns, provided the MLA belonged to their caste or community. When I probed one local about the performance of their MLA, he responded by saying, “kaam kaun karta hai?” (Who works, after all?)

BJP’s Slogan

The BJP has adopted the slogan ‘Batenge to Katenge’ (divided we fall), which has polarised the election. Jharkhand has a Muslim population of 14.5% (as per the 2011 census), which is roughly equal to the national average. The BJP has raised concerns over issues like ‘love jihad’, accusing Muslim men of marrying tribal women and subsequently taking control of tribal land and local governance through tribal sarpanchs. The BJP has particularly emphasised this issue in Santhal Pargana, accusing the JMM of failing to prevent the infiltration of outsiders, which they claim has altered the region’s demographic makeup. The party has promised the implementation of the National Register of Citizens (NRC) and hopes to make inroads in the region that was swept by the JMM-Congress-Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) alliance in 2019.

Congress A Weak Link?

In the 2019 elections, the Congress won 16 seats, mostly in the Chotanagpur division. The party has traditional strongholds in this region, although, over the years, many of these have shifted to the BJP. Just days before the polls, the Congress replaced its state president, Rajesh Thakur, who had made significant efforts to rebuild the party’s organisation. The Congress is contesting 37 seats in this election, but many view it as the “weak link” of the alliance.

Rise Of Kalpana Soren

The arrest of Hemant Soren propelled Kalpana Soren into the spotlight within the JMM. She took charge of the Lok Sabha campaign and became its star campaigner, connecting with women and young voters and energising the party cadre. Kalpana’s rallies often attract large crowds of tribal women, who relate to her discussions about the benefits of the Maiya Samman Yojana.

Schemes On Offer

The Soren government launched the Maiya Samman Yojana, modelled on the Laadli Bahin Yojana. Under this scheme, the government provides Rs 1,000 per month to 50 lakh women. Women voters are becoming an increasingly important demographic, and are playing a decisive role in elections. The BJP’s manifesto also includes the Go Go Yojana, while the INDIA bloc has promised to increase the cash dole in its manifesto.

Rise Of The Tiger

The rise of Jairam Mahato has shaken up Jharkhand politics. As a Kurmi leader, he has reignited the ‘insider vs outsider’ debate by demanding that the 1932 land records be used as the basis for the domicile policy. His rallies draw large crowds, particularly among the youth, and he has significantly impacted the INDIA bloc’s prospects in the Lok Sabha elections. In the assembly polls, he could pose a challenge to the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU), a party that also represents Kurmis and has been pushing for their inclusion in the ST list.

Bread And Butter Issues

Rising prices, unemployment, and rural distress remain key issues in the state. Jharkhand is one of India’s most backward states, with many of its districts ranked among the 250 most backward in the country. Its per capita income is roughly half the national average. Although Jharkhand is rich in minerals, illegal mining and the lack of industrial development—exacerbated by its landlocked nature—have hindered economic growth.

Battle Of Alliances

The BJP has aligned with the AJSU, the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM), and the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), while the JMM has partnered with the Congress, the RJD and Left parties. Seamless vote transfer between alliance partners will be crucial.

In 2019, the BJP and the AJSU contested separately, leading to their defeat. Had they contested together, they could have won 41 of the 81 seats, securing a simple majority.

There are an average of 15 candidates in each constituency, and independents or smaller parties could play the role of spoilers. Micro-management and voter mobilisation could ultimately decide the outcome.

(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author

Ranchi:

INDIA alliance partners in Jharkhand are set for a “friendly battle” in three assembly seats in the upcoming assembly polls, its leaders said on Saturday.

JMM and CPI-ML have already decided to go for a friendly fight in Dhanwar assembly seat, while Congress and RJD are still trying to avoid a friendly contest in the Chhattarpur and Bishrampur seats, they said at a joint press conference here.

The elections to the 81-member Jharkhand Assembly will take place in two phases on November 13 and 20, with counting of votes to take place on November 23.

As many as 1,211 candidates are in the fray for the 81 assembly seats after completion of nomination withdrawal exercises for both phases of the election.

The JMM has fielded candidates in 43 Assembly seats, Congress in 30 seats, RJD from six and CPI-ML in four seats.

“JMM, Congress, RJD and CPI-ML are jointly contesting the Jharkhand polls under the INDIA bloc. Excluding three seats – Chhatarpur, Bishrampur and Dhanwar – seat-sharing arrangements have been settled for all the constituencies in the alliance. The JMM has decided to go for a friendly contest with CPI-ML in Dhanwar seat,” JMM general secretary Vinod Pandey told reporters.

RJD and Congress have fielded their candidates from Chhatarpur and Bishrampur seats.

“Discussions are still going on to sort out the issue on both the seats. We hope to see a result in a day or two,” Mr Pandey said, adding that the RJD was given six seats, while the CPI-ML got three seats under the INDIA bloc.

Jharkhand Congress president Keshav Mahto Kamlesh said that they would contest the polls jointly and form an INDIA alliance government again.

The INDIA bloc has not yet officially declared their seat-sharing arrangements.

Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren had, on October 19, said that the INDIA bloc will contest the upcoming assembly polls together and the Congress and the JMM will field candidates in 70 of 81 seats.

The remaining 11 seats would be left for the RJD and the Left parties, he had said. 

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Ranchi:

INDIA bloc will contest the upcoming Jharkhand assembly polls together, Chief Minister Hemant Soren announced today. The Congress and ruling Jharkhand Mukti Morcha will field candidates in 70 of the 81 assembly segments, he said.

“We can’t go into the details of the seat-sharing right now. Our alliance partner is not here right now. When they are here, we will finalise the number of seats and other details,” Mr Soren told reporters, adding seat-sharing talks are on with other alliance partners – RJD and Left parties – for the remaining 11 segments.

Jharkhand will vote in two phases on November 13 and 20. Votes will be counted on November 23.

In the last elections, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha or JMM had contested 43 seats while Congress contested 31 seats. But this time around, the Congress is likely to get somewhere between 27 to 28 seats, sources said. The JMM is expected to increase its share because it believes that Hemant Soren is a key face in Jharkhand and the grand alliance will get votes on his name, they added.

According to the sources, the Communist Party of India (M-L) and Marxist Coordination Committee (MMC) also want to join forces with the JMM and Congress in this election. The Rashtriya Janata Dal, which fought on seven seats in the last assembly polls, is expected to contest fewer seats this time and agree to give the Bagodar seat to CPI (M-L) and Nirsa to MMC, they added.

Mr Soren’s announcement came a day after the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) revealed its seat-sharing formula for the state. BJP will contest 68 seats, while its allies, All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) will contest 10, Janata Dal (United) will contest two and Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) will contest the lone seat of Chatra.

“NDA is at its strongest in Jharkhand so far. It has never been in history that four parties have come together to fight the elections. NDA allies are even ready to swap their seats at the last moment if needed. We are ready to throw the corrupt government off the seat. All NDA members should come and fight with us. Hemant Soren’s government is the most corrupt in the state’s history,” said Bharatiya Janata Party leader Pratul Shah Deo.

In the 2019 Assembly polls, the JMM won 30 of the 81 seats, the Congress 16 and the RJD won one seat. The three parties formed a coalition government with a comfortable majority. The BJP won 25 seats, down from 37 in 2014, while the AJSU Party, contesting alone, ended up winning two seats.

A day after he was released on bail, having spent five months behind bars following his arrest by the Enforcement Directorate in a land scam case, former Jharkhand chief minister Hemant Soren has hit out at the BJP for “framing” him and said the people of the state will give the party a befitting reply in the Assembly elections, due later this year.

In an exclusive interview with NDTV on Saturday, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha leader also played down his struggles and said his father, former chief minister and party chief Shibu Soren and others in his party have had to face much worse.

Attacking the BJP over his arrest, Mr Soren repeated a charge that has been lobbed often at the ruling party and claimed that it was misusing agencies. Stating that the action against him is proof that the voices of the poor, tribals and farmers are being suppressed, he said the people of the state have seen everything and will make their displeasure known in the elections, likely to be held around November.

Jharkhand is ruled by a coalition led by the JMM, which has 27 MLAs, followed by the Congress, which has 18 in the 81-member house. The alliance, part of the larger INDIA bloc, also includes the RJD and the CPI (Marxist-Leninist) Liberation, which have one seat each.

Asked about his time in prison, the JMM leader said, “Our party chief Shibu Soren and many other leaders of the party have fought an even harder battle, this is nothing in front of them. Now we are on the frontlines and I have also got an opportunity to understand things and understand conspiracies (plotted against us).”

On the cases in which he is named, he said, “The court has given an order, it is available online. Look at that and assess how the voices of the poor, Dalits, backwards and farmers are being suppressed. These five months that I was in jail… for a poor person, a farmer, every moment and every hour is precious.”

His, Wife’s Future?

After Mr Soren’s arrest, the party’s number three, Champai Soren, became chief minister. This followed rumours of Hemant Soren’s wife, Kalpana, taking the reins, and his sister-in-law, Sita Soren, also quit the party ahead of the Lok Sabha elections amid a perceived power struggle.

To a question on whether he would become chief minister again, Mr Soren said, “I will look at all of this later. I just came out yesterday. I am with the party workers and am being welcomed by them. My beloved workers have reposed their trust in me and I am sharing in their enthusiasm. I am not looking at the government or the party for now. All of this will be seen in the time to come and will be communicated to you”

Kalpana Soren played an active role when Mr Soren was behind bars and also attended INDIA alliance meetings. When the JMM leader was asked about her future role, he said,  “She is my wife and we are from a political family. My father has been in politics and so have my elder brother, my wife and I. Our opponents will call it dynastic politics, but I will only say everyone should work according to their capacity.”

New Delhi:

The Supreme Court on Friday disposed of the petition of former Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren seeking interim bail to campaign for the ongoing Lok Sabha elections.

The Supreme Court said that Mr Soren’s interim bail petition should be taken up along with the petition declaring his arrest in a money laundering case as “illegal”, due for hearing on Monday.

The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) leader was arrested in January by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) in a money laundering case linked to an alleged land scam. He had moved the Supreme Court against the Jharkhand High Court order dismissing his application challenging his arrest by the ED and denied bail to him.

Senior advocate Kapil Sibal, who appeared for Mr Soren, told a three-judge bench headed by Chief Justice D Y Chandrachud that polling for the ongoing Lok Sabha elections in Jharkhand will commence on May 13 and that the JMM leader should be allowed to campaign for his party.

“Hemant Soren was arrested on January 31. We moved the high court on February 4. The high court reserved the judgment on February 28 but did not deliver the judgment. The High Court kept the judgment pending for long,” Mr Sibal said.

“The first phase of election starts in the state on May 13 and so we moved this court under Article 32 of the Constitution, and notice was issued last week. After the notice was issued, the high court delivered the judgment rejecting his plea. Its very unfortunate that rights are being trampled in this fashion,” Mr Sibal had said.

Mr Soren was arrested on January 31 shortly after he resigned as the Jharkhand chief minister. He is currently lodged in judicial custody at the Birsa Munda Central Jail in Ranchi.

The central probe agency has alleged that “huge amounts of proceeds of crime” were generated by Mr Soren through manipulation of official records by showing dummy sellers and purchasers in the guise of forged/bogus documents to acquire huge parcels of land having value in crores of rupees.

Ranchi:

The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) on Thursday nominated its Shikaripada legislator Nalin Soren from the Dumka Lok Sabha seat, making it clear that jailed former chief minister Hemant Soren will not contest from the constituency as speculated earlier.

The party also fielded its Tundi MLA Mathura Prasad Mahto from Giridih Lok Sabha seat.

“The party has decided to field Nalin Soren from Dumka seat and Mathura Prasad Mahto from Giridih,” a JMM leader said.

The BJP has already nominated Sita Soren, former JMM MLA and sister-in-law of Hemant Soren, from the Dumka constituency, reserved for Scheduled Tribes.

Notably, the saffron party had on March 2 renominated sitting MP Sunil Soren from Dumka but later withdrew his candidature in order to field Sita Soren from the seat.

Sunil Soren had defeated JMM president Shibu Soren in the 2019 polls by a margin of 47,590 votes.

Sita Soren, a three-term MLA and elder daughter-in-law of JMM patriarch Shibu Soren, joined the BJP last month.

She alleged that she was “neglected by the JMM” and was in “isolation” after the death of her husband Durga Soren in 2009.

The Congress on March 27 announced the names of candidates for three Lok Sabha constituencies — Lohardaga, Khunti and Hazaribag.

Kalicharan Munda, Sukhdeo Bhagat and Jai Prakashbhai Patel will contest the polls in Khunti (ST), Lohardaga (ST) and Hazaribagh seats respectively.

As per the INDIA bloc leaders, an initial seat-sharing agreement has been finalised for all the 14 Lok Sabha constituencies in the state.

According to the initial understanding, the Congress would contest from seven seats and the JMM from five. The RJD and CPI (ML) Liberation would field candidates in one seat each, they said.

The CPI (ML) Liberation on March 30 named three-time MLA from the Bagodar seat, Vinod Kumar Singh, for the Koderma Lok Sabha constituency in Jharkhand.

The BJP has announced candidates for 13 seats and left Giridih for the AJSU Party.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)