External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar with Chinese counterpart Wang Yi at the SCO Summit in Astana, Kazakhstan.
| Photo Credit: X/@DrSJaishankar

External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi held talks on July 4 in Astana amid the dragging border row in eastern Ladakh.

The two foreign ministers met on the sidelines of the annual summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).

It is understood that the focus of the deliberations was on the border row.

New Delhi has been maintaining that peace and tranquillity in the border areas is a prerequisite for normal ties between the two countries.

London is known for its open intellectual climate, where no idea is off-limits. But even in this dynamic city – and indeed in Washington too – it’s almost blasphemous to suggest that Russia and the West can be partners, or that the US and China can coexist as global powers. Recently, Nigel Farage, the Reform Party leader in the UK, faced a storm for urging the West to negotiate sensibly with Russia over Ukraine, calling the war a ‘complete stalemate’. People accused him of “echoing Russian propaganda”.

In India, we often hear that we don’t cultivate a society where all ideas are welcome. But let’s hope that suggesting a new chapter of “Hindi-Cheeni bhai-bhai” (India-China brotherhood) isn’t seen as blasphemy. The strong anti-China sentiment after the Galwan Valley clash in 2020 seems to have subsided. We’re buying more Chinese goods now than ever. In 2023, our bilateral trade hit over $136 billion. Hopefully, even those who burnt Chinese products in Gujarat and Delhi following the border skirmishes are more open to the idea now.

Sure, it might sound crazy to suggest that India and China should become trusted partners like the US and India, or Russia and China. But, it’s not entirely out of the question.

Sure, it might sound crazy to suggest that India and China should become trusted partners like the US and India, or Russia and China. But, it’s not entirely out of the question.

Major Geopolitical Shifts

India’s rise to become a global power is unstoppable; even China knows that. Talking to Chinese academics and journalists, you get the sense that they’re open to establishing long-term ties based on mutual respect. They like India, they want more people-to-people interactions, and one of them even wondered recently why India does not try to cast its spell over the dragon through its soft power of Bollywood  

Both countries have the responsibility to lift millions of their combined 2.8 billion people out of poverty. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has pledged to make India a developed country by 2047, which is a huge task. There are challenges, but if India and China team up and leverage each other’s strengths, it could be a major geopolitical shift, with far-reaching implications for global politics. 

Read | Modi-Hasina Should Worry About China, But Not Too Much

The US and its allies might be shocked and deeply concerned by a close India-China partnership. The West has benefited from the rivalry between the two countries as it aligns with their strategy of counterbalancing China’s rise. A partnership between these two Asian giants could undermine the West’s strategic interests in the region. Kishore Mahbubani, former Singaporean ambassador to the UN, has often said that most of Asia would cheer if this were to happen.

So, can India and China find common ground despite tensions over their disputed border? Prof. Mahbubani believes that while the two may never be best friends, they can have a good working relationship. He even says the 21st century belongs to the CIA (China, India, and ASEAN) countries. With US power on the decline, these countries will drive the world’s economic growth.

A Rollercoaster Ride

The idea of India and China being close friends isn’t new. Historically, they’ve acted like quarrelsome neighbours who fight and make up repeatedly. They share a long history of cultural and economic exchange dating back over two millennia. The Silk Road facilitated trade, and Buddhism, which started in India, found a significant following in China. These ancient ties laid a foundation of mutual respect and cultural affinity. During the colonial era, both countries faced subjugation by Western powers, fostering a sense of shared struggle. 

After gaining independence from the British, India faced border issues with China, and they continue to strain their relationship. In the early 1950s, the relationship was marked by camaraderie, epitomised by the slogan “Hindi-Chini Bhai-Bhai“. However, this period of cooperation was short-lived. The border dispute escalated into a full-scale war in 1962, leaving a lasting scar on bilateral relations. The disputed borders, particularly in the Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh regions, remain contentious issues.

The rivalry between the US and China will continue, and India will remain under US pressure in its effort to manage China. However, India’s strategic positioning between the US and China can work to its advantage.

Before the Galwan incident, Prime Minister Narendra Modi naturally leaned towards engaging with China. As Gujarat’s Chief Minister, he made four trips to the country to attract investment. As Prime Minister, he has visited China twice, and President Xi Jinping reciprocated with two visits to India. Both countries have emerged as major global economic powers, engaging in significant economic competition and areas of cooperation within multilateral frameworks like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).

Strategic Rivalry

Strategically, India and China view each other with suspicion. The latter’s close ties with Pakistan, its infrastructure projects in South Asia under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and its military presence in the Indian Ocean have heightened India’s security concerns.

Conversely, India’s growing partnership with the US and its participation in the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) is viewed warily by China. The 2020 Galwan Valley clash exacerbated tensions and highlighted the fragility of the relationship. Despite several rounds of military and diplomatic talks, a comprehensive resolution to the border disputes remains elusive.

Mumbai’s Shanghai Dreams

Many youth in India might not know that not too long ago, India used to compare itself with Pakistan in all spheres. This attitude changed around the turn of the millennium, when the Maharashtra government launched a mega project to revamp Mumbai in 2004, based on the “Vision Mumbai” report by Bombay First, an organisation comprising some of Mumbai’s super-rich stakeholders. The report outlined strategies for transforming Mumbai into “another Shanghai”. While the project to transform Mumbai is still a “work in progress”, it marked the beginning of India’s comparisons with China. Today, China sees India as its great rival, at least in Asia.

Read | China Is Revamping Its Military, And India Must Not Take It Lightly

Projections show that the Indian economy will surpass Germany and Japan’s to become the world’s third-largest one by 2027. Currently, however, India’s economy is only 19% the size of China’s, even though it feeds nearly the same number of people. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), India’s nominal GDP in 2023 stood at $3.5 trillion, compared to China’s $18.2 trillion. India’s per capita income was $2,411, while China’s was $12,720. China’s exports last year exceeded $3.38 trillion, while India’s exports were $778 billion.

Collaboration Possibilities

Since China opened its economy in 1978, it has lifted 800 million people out of poverty – a feat that hasn’t been matched by any regime in history. India has also succeeded in reducing poverty significantly. Both nations have many more millions to help. Collaborating in economic development, technology, infrastructure, environmental initiatives, healthcare, cultural exchange, and geopolitical stability can benefit both countries and the world. Overcoming historical tensions and building trust through consistent dialogue will be crucial.

The intense rivalry between the US and China will continue, and India will remain under pressure from the US to stay a reliable partner in its effort to manage China. However, India’s strategic positioning between the US and China can work to its advantage. Ultimately, New Delhi’s strategic interests are best served by a balanced approach that navigates the complex dynamics of US-China relations while advancing its own national objectives. 

India knows that neighbours with shared borders may fight at times, but they can still continue to believe in the ‘love thy neighbour’ dictum.

(Syed Zubair Ahmed is a London-based senior Indian journalist with three decades of experience with the Western media)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author

External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar and Chinese Ambassador Xu Feihong during a meeting, in New Delhi.
| Photo Credit: PTI

Chinese Ambassador Xu Feihong called on External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar on Tuesday.

The meeting comes days after a U.S. Congressional delegation met Tibetan spiritual leader Dalai Lama in Dharamshala and called for “self-determination” for Tibetans.

“We exchanged views on China-India relations and other issues of common interest. Thanks for his best wishes. Look forward to working with the Indian side to push forward the development of China-India relations towards the right direction,” Mr. Xu said after the meeting. 

Mr. Jaishankar also met a number of other envoys, including High Commissioner of Sri Lanka Kshenuka D. Senewiratne and High Commissioner of New Zealand Patrick John Rata.

He also sent out a message on the meeting with the Chinese envoy, saying, “Discussed our bilateral relationship and our common interest in its stabilisation and progress.”

Also Read | After friction, Chinese Premier Li Qiang greets PM Modi for third term

Mr. Jaishankar hosted the U.S. Congressional delegation last week at the Hyderabad House hours after they spoke in support of Tibetans’s right to “self-determination”.

The Congressional delegation, led by House Committee on Foreign Affairs Chairman Michael McCaul and ex-Speaker Nancy Pelosi, had also called upon China to avoid interfering in the process of finding a successor to the Dalai Lama.

The U.S. lawmakers also met Mr. Modi during their stay. The statements from the U.S. lawmakers had drawn a strong verbal response from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China, which declared that Beijing would take “resolute measures” to firmly defend its territorial sovereignty.

New Delhi:

The rise of China is the fundamental reality of international politics and India has become very important because it is the only country in Asia that can provide a “counterweight” to it, Fareed Zakaria has said.

In an exclusive interview with NDTV’s Sonia Singh for the NDTV Dialogues, the veteran journalist and geopolitical expert – who has written a new book, ‘The Age of Revolutions’ – spoke on a range of issues, including challenges to the world order, India’s role in that context and the implications of a possible third term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

To a question on the revolutions mentioned in his book, especially geopolitics, and the challenges posed by the rise of different countries, the Indian-born American journalist said, “The rise of China and the return of Russia have become the crucial new features of the world order and both of them present a kind of frontal challenge to the existing rules-based international order. India becomes very important in that context because India can provide a kind of ballast or counterweight to China. It’s the only country of the size and scale that has the capacity to do that in the long run in Asia.”

Mr Zakaria said India can also provide a counterweight in terms of upholding a rules-based international order, which it has historically been in favour of.

“(Like) emphasis on state sovereignty, emphasis on adjudicating things through bodies like the United Nations. So there is a very positive and constructive role India can play in this new world. There’s a market, if you will, for India out there. There’s tremendous goodwill in the United States, and in Europe, for India,” he added.

For India to leverage this position, however, the CNN journalist said it faces a challenge on two fronts. 

“One, it has to grow economically. India is still more a story of potential than of realised potential. China is still five times larger than India in economic terms. In terms of per-capita GDP, India is still a poor country. It is $ 2,700 per capita, which makes it the poorest country in the G20. So, to wield its weight, it will have to continue to move economically and, frankly, a bit faster. A poor country like India needs to move at 9%.

“The second piece… India needs to remain committed to a rules-based international order. There’s always a danger that a country like India will seek a narrow and short-term temporary advantage and forsake some of those rules. India has the potential to be a rule maker, rather than a rule taker in the new world order. It can shape the agenda, it can make the rules but, in order to do that, it has to live by them,” Mr Zakaria emphasised. 

Historic Third Term

A historic third term for Prime Minister Modi will give him much greater legitimacy in the Western world because he will be representing 1.4 billion people, Mr Zakaria said. 

“That does provide a certain kind of both moral and political ammunition for Modi. Will it matter to (Chinese President) Xi Jinping, (Russian President) Vladimir Putin and people like that? Not really, their view is to deal with the government that is in place. How it got there is no concern of anybody on the outside,” he said.

The veteran journalist said the key question would be what PM Modi does with his third term if he gets it. 

“What does he want his legacy for India to be? It (a third term) would be historic, he is very popular and a lot of the country listens to him. So he can either appeal to what Lincoln called the ‘better angels’, or there are other paths,” he said.

UN Security Council Less Relevant?

Israeli author Yuval Noah Harari had told NDTV that India can speak to countries like Iran and the world needs nations like that, which can speak to all the major players in this “geopolitical turbulence”. 

When Mr Zakaria was asked if he agreed, he said, “India does have relations with Iran, which could be very useful, but has it used that capacity… to try to create a more stable, peaceful atmosphere in the Middle East? Has it tried to broker some kind of negotiations or anything that could bring the temperature down? The Chinese have played that role. I wonder why India shouldn’t. I think India would be better suited to do it because Western powers would trust India more than China by a long shot.”

The journalist also said that India should have a place in the United Nations Security Council but that may never happen because China could veto it. He stressed that, because of factors like these, organisations like the UNSC will become less relevant and groupings like the G20 gain more importance. 

‘Politically Savvy’

On the global backlash against liberalism, Mr Zakaria said the amount of forward movement that has taken place and the realisation that power has been concentrated in the big cities has added to it. People who can capture this backlash have an advantage, he said.

“Prime Minister Modi is almost unique in that he has been able to both be an insider and an outsider. He can appeal to the ‘aam aadmi’ and at the same time, of course, he is Prime Minister. Trump has a little bit of that same technique but, of course, he’s much less popular. In America, there’s a much larger urban population, a much bigger group of people who feel like Trump is not their guy,” he said.

“But Prime Minister Modi has been able to both appeal to the common man and, at the same time, be part of the technocratic, technology based wave of modernisation that is happening in India. Which is why, I think, he’s been so politically successful… He is politically very savvy,” the journalist added.

Addressing India’s digital revolution, Mr Zakaria said, “India, as a poor country and as a late arrival in technology, chose the best path it could have taken.” He also, however, emphasised the need to “create great Indian technology companies” by leveraging this infrastructure.

External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar speaks during the release of the Bangla translation of his book ‘Why Bharat Matters’, in Kolkata, Tuesday, May 14, 2024.
| Photo Credit: PTI

External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar on May 14 said that the deployment of forces at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China is “abnormal” and the security of the country should not be disregarded.

Speaking at an event organised by the Indian Chamber of Commerce (ICC), Mr. Jaishankar said India responded to the Galwan clash by counter-deployment of forces there.

“After 1962, Rajiv Gandhi went to China in 1988 in many ways that were the key step towards normalising the ties (with China)…there was a clear understanding that we will discuss our boundary differences but we will maintain peace and tranquillity on the border. And the rest of the relationship will carry on,” the minister said.

Since then, it has been the basis of the relationship with China, he said.

“What changed now is what happened in 2020. In 2020, the Chinese, in violation of multiple agreements, brought a large number of forces to our border and they did it at the time when we were under COVID lockdown,” he said.

A total of 20 Indian soldiers died in the Galwan Valley clash, regarded as the worst in over four decades at the India-China border.

Also Read | The Hindu Explains | Who does Galwan Valley belong to?

Mr. Jaishankar said “India responded by counter deployment of forces” and for four years now, forces have been deployed ahead of the normal base positions at Galwan.

“This is a very abnormal deployment along the LAC. Given the tension between the two countries… As Indian citizens, none of us should disregard the security of the country…it is today a challenge”, he said.

There is also an economic challenge, he said, which is due to “neglect of the manufacturing and infrastructure sectors in the previous years”.

“Why is Indian business buying so much from China… is it good to be dependent on some other source?” he asked.

Mr. Jaishankar said there is a big economic security debate in the world.

“Countries feel today that many core businesses must stay within the country. The supply chain should be shorter and reliable… In the sensitive sectors, we will be careful… There is a national security obligation,” he said.

Relations with Russia

Regarding Russia, the external affairs minister said that India’s relations with Russia had been positive.

There is also an economic factor as Russia is endowed with natural resources such as oil, coal and metals of various kinds that India can obtain, Mr. Jaishankar said.

Also Read | Old and strong: On India-Russia ties 

Proper focus was not given to the manufacturing and infrastructure sector earlier, and the erstwhile license and permit Raj had created hostility to growth, he said.

“Many states including this one (West Bengal), there had been a culture of hostility to growth while job creation has become a challenge,” Jaishankar said.

Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir

At another event in the city later, the union minister said that Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir had always been an integral part of India.

“I have no doubt in mind that someone living in POK is comparing his situation with someone living in Jammu and Kashmir,” he said.

Mr. Jaishankar said Article 370 which fuelled violence and separatism should never have been continued.

On various conflicts such as Ukraine-Russia war, Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, Israel-Iran problem and South China sea issue, he said the world is a tough place but India is performing its role adroitly and is seen with respect by other countries.

“No country today is dominant enough… This is a transition period with old order running out of gas but the new order has not come,” Mr. Jaishakar said.

The diplomat-turned-minister said countries are keeping a watch to see who will be the new world player and “lots of attention are now on us.” “Most of the world is struggling with economic crisis. Their growth rate has fallen against this backdrop and the world sees a large economy notching up seven per cent growth even after Covid had dealt such a blow to other economies,” he said.

Asked about demographic changes in some states due to trans-border migration, he said “the basic obligation of a state is to protect its borders.

Leaving the borders unguarded, open for people to come is incompetence. We allowed things to happen for which the consequences are serious. When we rectify through good governance, there should not be any opposition from any side,” he commented without naming anyone.

Regarding dependence of Indian students on foreign universities, Mr. Jaishankar said, the focus should be on skills and employability to retain the flow in the country.

In a jibe at a section of the Western media and countries, he said they are yet to come out of the 300 years of berating India but “we must not be taught by countries who go to court to decide elections.”

Without naming anyone, he said people inside the country should not join the refrain of foreign critics and badmouth India outside, he said “we are a country which knows how to keep our arguments within ourselves till votes are counted. Please don’t denigrate the country outside.”

The minister said due to India’s good diplomatic relations with countries like U.S., during the Covid period “we could manage to fight the pandemic as we provided the U.S. with the much-needed tablet which proved effective in fighting the virus and we could successfully prepare vaccines and PPE kits and even these were sought by other countries.”

The minister said that due to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s diplomatic initiative with Russia, people stuck in Ukraine could be rescued while many Western countries could not.

External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar
| Photo Credit: PTI

As the eastern Ladakh military standoff entered its fifth year, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said India hopes for a resolution of the remaining issues with China and asserted that a return to normal bilateral ties hinges on peace and tranquillity at the border.

In an exclusive interview to PTI, he said the remaining issues mainly pertained to “patrolling rights” and “patrolling abilities”.

Also Read | A China-India partnership, its vast global potential

Specifically asked when a resolution to the row can be expected in the backdrop of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s remarks to Newsweek magazine last month, Mr. Jaishankar said he only provided a “big picture” viewpoint on the matter.

“We would hope that there is a resolution of the remaining issues out there. These issues mainly pertain to patrolling rights and patrolling abilities there,” he said.

“I would not link it to the prime minister’s interview per se. I think the prime minister was giving a big picture viewpoint and his big picture viewpoint was a very reasonable viewpoint which is – after all as neighbours, every country wants good relations with its neighbours,” he said.

“But today, our relations with China are not normal because the peace and tranquillity in the border areas has been disturbed. So he (PM) was expressing the hope that the Chinese side should realise that the present situation is not in its own interest,” Mr. Jaishankar said.

Mr. Modi had said that the border situation needs to be addressed urgently and that stable and peaceful ties between India and China are important for not just the two countries but for the entire region and world.

Mr. Jaishankar said diplomacy is a work of patience and India continues to discuss the issues with the Chinese side.

“I would say that we need to resolve those issues if the relationship is to come back to normal,” he said during the interview on Thursday.

The Indian and Chinese militaries have been locked in a standoff since May 2020 and a full resolution of the border row has not yet been achieved though the two sides have disengaged from a number of friction points.

India has been consistently maintaining that peace and tranquillity along the LAC were key for normalisation of overall ties.

Asked why bilateral trade volume with China is going up when New Delhi has been insisting that the ties cannot be normal when the border situation is abnormal, Jaishankar suggested that such a scenario has arisen as adequate attention to the manufacturing sector was not given before 2014.

“I think it is common sense that If there is no peace and tranquillity in the border, how can you have a normal relationship,” he said.

“After all If somebody is at your front door in an unfriendly manner, you are not going to go out there and act as though everything is normal. That to me is a straightforward proposition,” the minister added.

The ties between the two countries nosedived significantly following the fierce clash in the Galwan Valley in June 2020 that marked the most serious military conflict between the two sides in decades.

In the diplomatic and military talks with China, the Indian negotiators have been insisting on restoring the status quo ante of April 2020 along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh.

New Delhi:

Newly-appointed Chinese Ambassador to India, Xu Feihong on Friday said that India and China boast of being time-honoured civilizations and are each other’s important neighbours.

In an interview with China Global Television Network, Xu Feihong shared his first reaction to being appointed as the Indian ambassador after a considerable hiatus and said that it is an honourable mission and a sacred duty.

“I will do my best to deepen understanding and friendship between the two peoples, expand exchanges and cooperation in various fields, and improve and advance the bilateral relationship,” he said.

He expressed confidence in getting support and assistance from the Indian government from all sectors as he began his ambassadorial duties.

Emphasising his priorities, he said that both China and India boast time-honoured civilizations and are each other’s important neighbours.

He further stressed that India and China are the biggest emerging markets and developing countries of the world.

“As President Xi Jinping said If China and India speak with one voice, the whole world will listen; if the two countries join hands, the whole world will pay attention,” Feihong noted.

“I will follow the important consensus between our leaders, reach out to friends from all sectors of India, earnestly enhance the understanding and trust between the two sides, work to restore exchanges and cooperation in various fields and create favourable conditions for a sound and steady China-India relationship,” he added.

He further assured that this is in the interest of both countries, the region and the world, and is also what the people and the international community hope to see.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

New Delhi:

India has initiated an anti-dumping probe into the import of a chemical used in the rubber industry from China and Japan following a complaint by a domestic player.

The commerce ministry’s investigation arm Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) is probing the alleged dumping of ‘Insoluble Sulphur’.

Oriental Carbon & Chemicals Ltd has filed an application before the authority to undertake a probe into the alleged dumping of the chemicals coming from these two countries.

According to the DGTR’s notification, the applicant has provided prima facie evidence with respect to the injury suffered by the domestic industry due to the dumped imports.

“The authority hereby initiates an anti-dumping investigation into the alleged dumping and consequent material injury to the domestic industry,” it said.

If it is established that the dumping has caused material injury to domestic players, the DGTR would recommend the imposition of anti-dumping duty on imports.

The finance ministry takes the final decision to impose duties.

Anti-dumping probes are conducted by countries to determine whether domestic industries have been hurt because of a surge in cheap imports.

As a countermeasure, they impose these duties under the multilateral regime of the Geneva-based World Trade Organization (WTO). The duty is aimed at ensuring fair trading practices and creating a level-playing field for domestic producers vis-a-vis foreign producers and exporters.

India, China and Japan are members of the WTO, which is a 166-member multi-lateral trade body.

India has already imposed anti-dumping duty on several products to tackle cheap imports from various countries, including China

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

New Delhi:

Hitting back at China over its comments on the investigation into the alleged foiled assassination plot against Khalistani terrorist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, the Ministry of External Affairs said that India and the United States are capable of dealing with any issues between the two countries.

The MEA spokesperson, Randhir Jaiswal, added that there is no role for any “speculative comments and gratuitous advice” by “unrelated third parties.”

This comes after Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian, during a press conference, said that the relevant countries must observe international law and the basic norms governing international relations.

“China noted the reports. We hope relevant countries will earnestly observe international law and the basic norms governing international relations,” Mr Jian said.

Addressing the weekly press briefing on Thursday, the MEA spokesperson said, “India and the United States, as two countries adhering to the rule of law, are capable of dealing with any issues that we have between ourselves. There is no role for any speculative comments and gratuitous advice by unrelated third parties.”

Gurpatwant Singh Pannun is an India-designated terrorist who holds American and Canadian citizenship.

As per the US Justice Department indictment, an Indian, Nikhil Gupta, who is currently in custody, has been charged with the murder-for-hire of Pannun.

The US Justice Department had claimed that an Indian government employee, who was not identified in the indictment filed, had recruited the Indian national to hire a hitman to allegedly carry out the assassination of Pannun, which was foiled by US authorities.

Last year, India formed a committee to inquire into the allegations of the foiled assassination plot.

In December last year, US Principal Deputy National Security Advisor Jon Finer acknowledged India’s establishment of a Committee of Enquiry to investigate the plot to allegedly kill Pannun in the US.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

As China’s claims over India’s easternmost state of Arunachal Pradesh get shriller, and what the MEA calls more absurd, the US wades in, says it backs India’s territorial sovereignty in Arunachal? Is Beijing preparing for a bigger confrontation over the boundary, and how do Bhutan-China boundary talks fit in?

Hello and Welcome to WV at TH with me SH

We will look at some of the geopolitical- and also the geospatial angles of the India-China military standoff at the Line of Actual Control since 2020.

 But first, here are the latest developments on the LAC :

-Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a visit to Arunachal Pradesh on March 9, to inaugurate a number of projects, including most notably, the Sela Tunnel at a height of 13,000 ft, meant to be an all-weather access to Tawang and especially for troops heading to the Line of Actual Control with China

-Within days China’s Foreign Ministry and its Defence Ministry spokespersons had issued statement, making claims on Arunachal Pradesh and even suggesting that the PM’s visit would “disrupt” India-China talks to resolve the 4-year old military standoff at the LAC

-India’s response was equally sharp, MEA calling the claims absurd, and asserting Arunachal Pradesh as an integral part of India

Significantly, the US State department also waded into the spat, saying it recognizes Arunachal Pradesh as a part of India. The comments are interesting, and while many in India welcomed them, it would be a double edged sword if the US began recognising individual parts of India, like Jammu Kashmir, Ladakh, PoK etc as Delhi and Washington may have differences there.

Meanwhile the big diplomacy moves this week were over India and Bhutan, as Bhutanese PM Tshering Tobgay visited India, and PM Modi headed to Thimpu in practically back-to-back visits. Mr. Modi’s visit was particularly significant as by convention, PMs do not travel abroad after elections are announced, and he went despite having to put the visit off by a day due to the weather. While the ostensible reason for the visit was to receive an award from the Bhutanese King Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck, the important discussions with both the King and his father, former King Jigme Singye Wangchuck is to discuss bilateral issues like hydropower, investment in infrastructure and the Gelephu Mindfulness city project, and importantly, Bhutan-China boundary talks and the direction they will take.

China’s claims over Arunachal have become shriller and more determined in the last few years:

1. China has renamed Arunachal Pradesh in its maps as Zangnan( South Tibet) and published new maps with Chinese names for Arunachal towns, despite the fact that they are firmly in Indian territory

2. China routinely protests visits by PM Modi, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh to the state, and also by the US Ambassador

3. China is building border villages, which India believes are dual purpose, for military use as well, in possible preparation for operations at the LAC. China has recently passed laws that more or less allow it to claim land where it has settled populations

4. India is also speeding up border infrastructure, and improving villages along the LAC, of course, but Beijing’s intentions towards the region, given how it has made assertions in the south china sea and Taiwan, are a growing worry.

There is an important paper brought out by Takshshila where you can look at how the border villages are coming up, using geospatial imagery

A word about Bhutan-China boundary talks (Map would be great here)

1. These began in 1984, and the two sides have held 25 rounds of talks, mainly over the resolution of 2 valleys to Bhutan’s north Jakarlung and Pasamlung, and Doklam to the West of Bhutan, just above the trijunction with India.

2. Bhutan and China don’t have full diplomatic ties, don’t maintain embassies, but Bhutan and the Tibetan Autonomous Region share a contiguous border to Bhutan’s north and west of about 470 km. Bhutan is keen to demarcate this boundary, and China is keen to ensure a swap where it keeps the dominant part of Doklam plateau instead of the northern valleys.

3. Talks had come to a standstill in 2016, followed by the India-China Doklam standoff in 2017, and subsequently the Covid pandemic.

4. In 2020, China laid a new claim, on Sakteng to Bhutan’s east, which also abuts Arunachal Pradesh, effectively putting pressure on Bhutan to make progress on talks

5. Once talks restarted in 2021, Bhutan and China made quick progress, signing a 3-step roadmap to demarcate the boundary

In 2023, Bhutan and China also signed a cooperation agreement for the Joint Technical Team to carry out and mark the demarcated boundaries on the ground and on paper.

In January 2024, with a new government at the helm, reports that the MEA has declined to comment on have suggested that Bhutan has requested that India hold off on its Arunachal Road construction that goes via the Bhutanese Trashiyangste district, until its talks are completed.

Here’s what EAM Jaishankar said recently, speaking at a conference in Tokyo:

“Our own experience in the case of China is that between 1975-2020 there was no bloodshed on the border, and in 2020 it changed. We can disagree on many things but when a country does not observe written agreements, it raises concerns, both about the stability of the relationship and about intentions.”

Given all of the signs, India’s diplomatic challenges are set to multiply over the next few months on the LAC for a number of reasons:

1. China is increasingly upping its responses to India , and the worry is that during election season, there may be attempts for destabilizing operations at the LAC

2. The US too is going into election season, which could turn even more turbulent as Trump makes gains, and similar worries remain about Chinese plans at other parts of its geography

3. Bhutan has to decide how quickly to proceed with its talks on the boundary, given it has also now announced its ambitious plans for Gelephu, a 1000 sq km special administration area, and would want to stabilize its borders at the earliest

4. India’s other neighbours will be watching closely, given their own economic ties with China, like the Maldives- where the new government is getting closer to Beijing, and both Pakistan and Sri Lanka are looking for economic stability

5. Chinese tensions in the Indo-Pacific region, most recently with the Philippines could cause maritime instability as well.

WV Take: China’s growing loud responses on Arunachal Pradesh are cause for both concern and vigil, militarily and diplomatically for New Delhi. Eventually India’s 3,500 km LAC with China as a whole is going to need more resources, and the worry is that this will strain India’s other defence commitments, including in the maritime sphere. The government needs to broadly acknowledge the threat, and be more transparent about how it plans to counter China’s incursions, that it has yet to fully acknowledge since 2020.

WV Reading Recommendations

1. Understanding The India-China Border: The Enduring Threat of War in the High Himalayas by Manoj Joshi

2. Crosswinds: Nehru, Zhou and the Anglo-American Competition over China: Nehru, Zhou and the Anglo-American Competition over China by Vijay Gokhale

3. Beyond Binaries:The World Of India And China (2008-2022) Hardcover – 1 January 2024 by Shastri Ramachandaran

4. Four Stars of Destiny: An Autobiography Hardcover – Import, 30 April 2024 by General Manoj Mukund Naravane

5. China’s World View: Demystifying China to Prevent Global Conflict by David Daokui Li

6. The Return of Great Powers: Russia, China, and the Next World War by Jim Sciutto

Script and Presentation: Suhasini Haidar

Production: Gayatri Menon and Shibu Narayan