Syria’s Islamist militant leader on Tuesday (December 10, 2024) vowed to pursue former senior government officials responsible for torture and war crimes, a day after he began talks on the transfer of power following President Bashar al-Assad’s ouster.

Mr. Assad fled Syria as the Islamist-led opposition alliance swept into the capital Damascus, bringing a spectacular end on Sunday to five decades of brutal rule by his clan.

Also read | After Assad’s ouster, India calls for peaceful, inclusive political process in Syria

He oversaw a crackdown on a democracy movement that erupted in 2011, sparking a war that killed 5,00,000 people and forced half the country to flee their homes, millions of them finding refuge abroad.

“We will not hesitate to hold accountable the criminals, murderers, security and army officers involved in torturing the Syrian people,” militant leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, now using his real name Ahmed al-Sharaa, said on Tuesday in a statement on Telegram.

“We will offer rewards to anyone who provides information about senior army and security officers involved in war crimes,” he said, adding the incoming authorities would seek the return of officials who have fled abroad.

Sharaa held talks on Monday with outgoing Prime Minister Mohammed al-Jalali “to coordinate a transfer of power that guarantees the provision of services” to Syria’s people, according to an earlier statement on Telegram.

While Syria had been at war for over 13 years, the government’s collapse came in a matter of days in a lightning offensive led by Sharaa’s Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

Even as some Syrians rejoiced and others rushed to search for loved ones in Mr. Assad’s notorious jails, Israel continued to carry out air strikes aimed at destroying the former government’s military capabilities, the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

Early on Tuesday, AFP journalists heard more loud explosions in Damascus.

Israeli strikes

The Syrian Observatory said on Tuesday that Israel had “destroyed the most important military sites in Syria” with a flurry of air strikes since the fall of Mr. Assad.

It said Israel has carried out “about 250 air strikes on Syrian territory” over the last 48 hours.

They targeted weapons depots, boats from the Assad government’s navy, and a research centre that Western countries suspected of having links to chemical weapons production, it said.

Near the port city of Latakia, Israel targeted an air defence facility and damaged Syrian naval ships as well as military warehouses.

In and around the capital Damascus, strikes targeted military installations, research centres, and the electronic warfare administration.

Israel, which borders Syria, also sent troops into a buffer zone east of the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights after Assad’s fall, in what Foreign Minister Gideon Saar described as a “limited and temporary step” for “security reasons”.

Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which had been allied to Mr. Assad, condemned the strikes late Monday and lambasted Israel for “occupying more land in the Golan Heights”.

Prison nightmare

At the core of the system of rule that Mr. Assad inherited from his father Hafez was a brutal complex of prisons and detention centres used to eliminate dissent by those suspected of stepping out of the ruling Baath party’s line.

Thousands of Syrians gathered on Monday outside a jail synonymous with the worst atrocities of Mr. Assad’s rule to search for relatives, many of whom had spent years in the Saydnaya facility outside Damascus.

Rescuers from the Syrian White Helmets group had earlier said they were looking for potential secret doors or basements in Saydnaya.

“I ran like crazy” to get to the prison, said Aida Taha, 65, searching for her brother who was arrested in 2012.

“But I found out that some of the prisoners were still in the basements. There are three or four floors underground.”

Crowds of freed prisoners wandered the streets of Damascus distinguishable by the marks of their ordeal: maimed by torture, weakened by illness and emaciated by hunger.

‘We are reborn’

In central Damascus on Monday, despite all the uncertainty over the future, the joy was palpable.

“It’s indescribable. We never thought this nightmare would end. We are reborn,” Rim Ramadan, 49, a civil servant at the finance ministry, told AFP.

“We were afraid for 55 years of speaking, even at home. We used to say the walls had ears,” Ramadan said, as people honked car horns and rebels fired their guns into the air.

Syria’s parliament, formerly pro-Assad like the Prime Minister, said it supports “the will of the people to build a new Syria towards a better future governed by law and justice”.

The Baath party said it will support “a transitional phase in Syria aimed at defending the unity of the country.”

Syrian state television’s logo on the Telegram messaging app now displays the rebel flag.

During the offensive launched on November 27, rebels met little resistance as they wrested city after city from Assad’s control, opening the gates of prisons along the way and freeing thousands, many of them held on political charges.

Some, like Fadwa Mahmoud, whose husband and son are missing, posted calls for help on social media.

“Where are you, Maher and Abdel Aziz? It’s time for me to hear your news. Oh God, please come back,” wrote Mahmoud, herself a former detainee.

Rooted in Syria’s branch of Al-Qaeda, HTS is proscribed by Western governments as a terrorist group but has sought to soften its image in recent years.

Germany and France said in a statement they were ready to cooperate with Syria’s new leadership “on the basis of fundamental human rights and the protection of ethnic and religious minorities.”

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, in Saudi Arabia on Monday, said HTS must reject “terrorism and violence” before Britain can engage with the group designated “terrorist” by London.

Washington’s top diplomat, Antony Blinken, said the United States — with hundreds of troops in Syria as part of a coalition against Islamic State group jihadists — is determined to prevent IS from re-establishing safe havens.

“We have a clear interest in doing what we can to avoid the fragmentation of Syria, mass migrations from Syria and, of course, the export of terrorism and extremism,” Mr. Blinken said.

Assad in Moscow?

The United Nations said that whoever ends up in power in Syria must hold the Assad regime to account. But how the ousted leader might face justice remains unclear, especially after the Kremlin refused on Monday to confirm reports by Russian news agencies that he had fled to Moscow.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, however, said that if Russia granted asylum to Assad and his family, it would be a decision taken by President Vladimir Putin.

The Syrian embassy in Moscow raised the opposition’s flag, and the Kremlin said it would discuss the status of its bases in Syria with the new authorities.

Russia played an instrumental role in keeping Assad in power, directly intervening in the war starting in 2015 and providing air cover to the army during the rebellion.

A drone view shows buildings in Damascus, after Syrian rebels ousted President Bashar al-Assad, Syria December 10, 2024
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Syrian Islamist militant group, had been preparing for months for a large-scale offensive against regime forces. The civil war was quiet for years, particularly after the regime of President Bashar al-Assad captured most of its lost territories — including Aleppo, Hama and Homs. The HTS, formerly al-Nusra Front, the Syrian arm of al-Qaeda, had built a statelet in Idlib, in northwestern Syria, under the leadership of its ‘emir’, Abu Muhammed al-Jolani. The HTS and its ally Syrian National Army (SNA), formerly the Free Syrian Army, had informed Turkiye, their patron, at least six months ago about the offensive plan, according to a Reuters report. And Ankara had given its tacit approval.

Mr. Assad’s troops were in a bad shape. Soldiers were poorly paid and lacked motivation. The country never recovered from the scars of the civil war. Under crippling American sanctions, its finances were in shambles. During the peak of the civil war, in 2015-16, Mr. Assad had heavily relied on his external allies for security — Russia, Iran and Hezbollah. Now, the situation was different. The Russians were focused on Ukraine. Iran lost a host of its Syria commanders to Israeli strikes. Hezbollah had been weakened in a year-long war with Israel. The HTS launched its offensive on November 27, the day Israel and Lebanon signed a ceasefire. On the 12th day, the Assad regime fell, sending tremors across the region.

Offensive begins

When they launched the offensive, the militants’ initial target was the western suburbs of Aleppo, Syria’s second largest city which Mr. Assad’s forces recaptured in 2016, after four years of a brutal battle. When HTS and SNA militants advanced towards Aleppo, they faced little resistance from government forces. Within four days, they reached Aleppo’s city centre.

The rapid collapse of government forces in Aleppo stunned both the militants and the regime alike. And Mr. Assad’s allies took note of it. The HTS’s victory triggered rebellion elsewhere in the country. In the south, local militias, who were backed by Jordan, started attacking government positions. In the northeast, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish militia, started advancing towards the eastern city of Deir Ezzour. The HTS, the main militant group, marched south from Aleppo towards Hama. On December 5, they entered Hama. Mr. Assad’s forces did not fight back. Some of them crossed the border to Iraq, seeking refuge. Others abandoned their uniforms and fled. The militants raided military depots and grabbed more weapons, making their position stronger. Mr. Assad turned to Iran and Russia for help. But Syrian and other Arab officials say both Russia and Iran told the Syrian President that they could not help him much this time. Iran, according to some reports, evacuated its personnel from Syria.

Shrinking circle

Mr. Assad’s circle was shrinking. His troops are not fighting back. He is not getting any external help. The militants are on a march from multiple fronts. From Hama, the HTS advanced towards Homs, a strategically important city that sits at an intersection between Syria’s Mediterranean coast and Damascus, the seat of power. If Homs falls, Damascus would be cut off from Mr. Assad’s coastal stronghold. On December 7, HTS-linked militants entered Homs, Syria’s third largest city. The next day, the Southern Front, militants from the south who had already taken Daara, entered Damascus first, followed by the HTS. Syria’s Prime Minister Muhammad al-Jalali said he would ensure a peaceful transition of power. The army chief said Mr. Assad’s government was over, bringing the almost 60-year rule of the Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party in Syria to a dramatic end. Later in the day, Russia said Mr. Assad and his family were in Moscow and granted political asylum.

Different rebel groups

The fall of the regime leaves a huge vacuum in Syria. Until December 8, the opposition militias had a common enemy–’Assad the tyrant’. Now, they are facing each other while trying to expand their influence. Roughly, there are four rebel coalitions in Syria. One, the HTS, led by Jolani. It is the most prominent one. HTS telegram channels already call him ‘President’ Shara, referring to his real name, Ahmed Hussein al-Shara. The HTS has built a statelet in Idlib and some 25,000 soldiers under its command. But that’s not enough to run a vast country like Syria. But the HTS certainly wants to play a key role in the new Syria, and has sent reconciliatory messages to the country’s different sects and militias. The SAA, another northern militia, is an ally of the HTS and a proxy of Turkiye.

Two, local militias in the south. They would not like to give up their privileges. That they entered Damascus first was a clear message to Jolani that he was not the only ‘rebel’ in the game. Three, the SDF, the Kurdish militia. In the northeast, the Kurds have enjoyed relative autonomy since the beginning of the civil war. But Turkiye was alarmed by the Kurds’s growing strengths and had launched incursions into Syria in the past, grabbing territories on the border. The SDF would not like to give up their autonomy, which could put them on a collision course with the HTS and the SAA, the Turkish backed groups. And lastly, there are Alawites, Mr. Assad’s sect who live mostly in the mountainous coastal regions of Latakia and Tartus, and enjoyed power for nearly 50 decades. The Alawites were the backbone of the Syrian army. They are unlikely to immediately trust Jolani, a committed Salafi Islamist militant, whose group in the past had carried out targeted attacks against Alawites.

Syria is a diverse country. It now has a diverse set of militias, without a central authority. And then there are external players. Turkiye, as the main supporter of northern militias (HTS and SAA), would seek to extend its influence in the government formation. Jordan would like to see the southern militias getting their due. The Gulf Arabs, who are wary of both Islamists and Turkiye, would be alarmed by the developments. Iran risks losing its territorial link with Hezbollah. Russia’s primary objective would be to safeguard its Tartus naval base and Khmeimim air base. And Israel has already sent troops to capture land in Syria’s Golan Heights and is carrying out massive air strikes aimed at destroying the Syrian army’s military capabilities.

U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer had welcomed the overthrow of the “barbaric” Assad regime. File
| Photo Credit: Getty Images

The U.K. could lift a ban on the militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which led to the overthrow of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria. The group had been proscribed in 2017 for its links with al-Qaeda.

U.K. Cabinet Office Minister Pat McFadden told BBC Radio4 that the government would make a “relatively swift decision” about lifting the ban, if the situation in Syria stabilised. The HTS is also a designated terrorist organisation in the U.S.

“A lot will depend on whether the statements about the protection of minorities and citizens are backed up,” Mr. McFadden said.

“It’s a very fluid situation. No one is certain about what will happen,” he added.

Also read: Syria civil war LIVE updates

Mr. McFadden also told Times Radio that the U.K. “can consider” lifting the ban, if HTS ends up “taking over” Syria.

“The new leader [Abu Muhammad al-] Jolani is saying the right things and making the right noises just now but I think every country will be calculating how do we deal with what happens there next,” Mr. McFadden said. Jolani was chosen by then Islamic State (IS) chief Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

Earlier U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, had welcomed the overthrow of the “barbaric” Assad regime.

“Our focus is now on ensuring a political solution prevails, and peace and stability is restored,” Mr. Starmer said on Sunday (December 9, 2024) while he was in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), on an unrelated trip to the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Mr. Starmer called for the protection of civilians and minorities, and for aid to reach those in need.

Assad’s wife so far not sought return to UK

The British wife of Mr. Assad, Asma al-Assad, had not requested to return to the U.K, according to Mr. McFadden.  The Assad family is in Russia, where they have been granted political asylum, as per Russian state media. Ms. Assad is a former investment banker, the daughter of a Syrian diplomat and cardiologist, who live in the suburbs of London.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was on Sunday forced to flee the country after rebels seized the capital Damascus, ending his 24-year rule. As the news broke about the rebels entering Damascus, speculation grew about the whereabouts of the 59-year-old leader, who had for years taken help from his allies like Russia, Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah to maintain his power.

Initially, there were reports that he had boarded a plane early on Sunday in Damascus for an unknown destination. The news agency Reuters reported that a Syrian airplane took off from Damascus airport around the time the capital was reported to have been taken by rebels.

The aircraft initially flew towards Syria’s coastal region, a stronghold of Assad’s Alawite sect and home to two key Russian military bases, but then made an abrupt U-turn and flew in the opposite direction for a few minutes before disappearing off the map.

READ | Bashar Al-Assad Out, Rebels Take Over: What Next For Syria And Its People

Citing two Syrian sources, Reuters said the sudden change in course and disappearance of the plane from tracking could indicate it had been shot down, or that it had switched off its transponder. It was not clear who was on board.

However, after over 12 hours of speculation, it was reported that Assad is in Moscow with his family and that Russia has granted them asylum on humanitarian grounds.

“Breaking news! Bashar al-Assad and his family in Moscow. Russia does not betray friends in difficult situations,” Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia’s ambassador to international organisations in Vienna, said on his Telegram messaging channel.

Last week, Assad’s allies Iran and Russia had also asked their citizens to leave Syria, citing the deteriorating security situation.

Bashar al-Assad’s government fell 11 days after the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group challenged more than five decades of his family rule with a lightning offensive.

READ | Syrian Rebels Failed For 13 Years. How They Beat Assad Regime In 13 Days

The rebels began their operation on November 27, the same day a ceasefire took place in neighbouring Lebanon between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah members, and soon went on to seize key cities of Aleppo and Hama. They then took control of Damascus on Sunday to put an end to the Assad regime.

Damascus:

In a seismic moment for the Middle East, Islamist rebels in Syria announced President Bashar al-Assad’s ouster on Sunday after seizing control of Damascus, forcing him to flee and ending his family’s decades of rule after more than 13 years of civil war. The fall of Bashar al-Assad came as a major blow to the influence of Russia and Iran in the heart of the region, key allies who propped up the President during critical periods in the conflict.

The end of the Assad family’s five-decade rule in Syria is set to reshape the power balance in the region, with regional and global forces rising to fill the power vacuum left behind by the dramatic regime change. While the Western and Arab states, along with Israel, would try to curtail Iran’s influence in Syria, it is unlikely for them to support a radical Islamist regime to replace Assad, according to a report by CNN.

For Iran the fall of Syria could shatter its so-called Axis of Resistance, comprising allied states and militia.

What Led To Asaad’s Fall?

Rebels reportedly were encouraged to make an advance for Aleppo last week after Israel debilitated Hezbollah and weakened Iran’s footprint in the region. “Due to the Lebanese war and decrease in Hezbollah forces, (Assad’s) regime has less support,” Hadi al-Bahra, a Syrian opposition leader representing anti-Assad groups told news agency Reuters in an interview. 

He added that Iran-backed militias also have fewer resources, and Russia is providing less air cover to Assad’s forces due to its “Ukraine problem”. 

What’s At Stake?

Iran

For years, Syria was used by Iran to expand its regional influence through proxy groups stationed in the majorly Sunni nation. Tehran, along with its proxy Hezbollah, have helped the Syrian government forces regain lost territory.  The Islamic Republic also sent its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders to advise Assad’s military, which proved instrumental in keeping the President in Power.  

However, since the beginning of the Middle Eastern conflict in October last year after the Palestinian militant group Hamas launched its attack on Israel, Hezbollah pulled its forces out of Syria to focus on its war with Israel. Iran has been reportedly using supply routes in Syria to transfer weapons to its proxies fighting Israel. The fall of Aleppo and potentially other cities bordering Lebanon could disrupt those routes, placing Iran in a difficult position. Losing Syria would be “a huge blow” for Iran, according to experts. 

“The investment Iranians have made in Syria is very significant, it’s an important land bridge to Lebanon, but also the alliance the Iranians have with the Assad regime has lasted across the Islamic Republic’s history,” Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Washington DC-based Quincy Institute told CNN. 

As per the report, Iran would want to use its proxies in the region as leverage in potential talks with incoming US President Donald Trump’s administration.

“If Iran loses too much of their position in the region, will they be too weak to negotiate? But if they fight back to try and retain as much of that position as possible, do they risk escalating the war to the point where diplomacy may no longer be possible?” Mr Parsi said. 

Lebanon

As per experts, the events in Syria are bound to impact Lebanon, where a truce deal between Tehran’s proxy Hezbollah and Israel is hanging by a thread. Hezbollah was a crucial player in keeping the Asaad regime afloat, but it has been weakened by the war with Israel. 

In case the Syrian insurgents manage to reach the Lebanese border, Hezbollah’s key logistics and supply route from Iran– which passes through Syria and Iraq– could be cut off, confining Tehran’s proxy in Lebanon. 

“One of the causes of what is happening today in Syria is the control of the Syrian-Lebanese borders to prevent the passage of strategic weapons into Lebanon,” Euronews quoted Antoine Habchi, Lebanese MP from the Bekka Valley, as saying. 

“Turkey has tried to make sure that the Lebanese borders are not a route for the transfer of strategic weapons through Syria. Even al-Assad doesn’t control passage through his own territory here, which is controlled by other factions and international forces, and notably Iran,” Mr Habchi added. 

Turkey

Turkey had been seeking to increase its leverage with President Assad to boost its standing in the region and allow it to keep closer control of Kurdish separatists, located along the Turkish-Syria border, to create a buffer zone. Ankara had represented the rebels in negotiations with Russia in the past decade, which eventually led to a ceasefire agreement between the Syrian government and Opposition forces in 2020.

Despite its support for opposition forces, Turkey has not ruled out a rapprochement with Syria. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long opposed Kurdish nationalism. He has time and again said that his ultimate goal is to eliminate the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a Kurdish far-left militant and political group based in Turkey and Iraq that has fought the Turkish state for more than three decades.

Another goal for Ankara is to reportedly maintain control over oil-rich Syrian sanctuaries in semi-autonomous northern areas of the country. 

Israel

The imbalance in power in Syria has also caught Israel in a difficult position. While President Assad viewed Israel as an enemy, he did not pose a direct threat to Tel Aviv and opted to not respond to the regular Israeli strikes in Syria over the past year. 

However, Asaad’s regime allowed its territory to be used by Iran to supply weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon. But the fall of Mr Asaad did not come as a relief to Israel as the group leading the rebellion in Syria is Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS) whose leader Abu Muhammad Al Jolani is a former al Qaeda fighter with an Islamist ideology that opposes Israel.

“Israel is in between Iran, its proxies and Syria’s Islamic rebels,” Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence official, told CNN. 

“None of the choices are good as far as Israel is concerned but for the time being Iran and its proxies are weakened, which is good,” he said

The newly revived conflict has allowed Tel Aviv to resume strikes on targets in Syrian territory. Suspected Israeli airstrikes hit Mazzeh district of Damascus on Sunday, Reuters reported. 

As per the report, jets believed to be Israeli also bombed the Khalkhala air base in southern Syria which was evacuated by the Syrian army overnight. The regional security sources also told the agency that at least six strikes hit the main air base in the north of the city of Suweida which has a large stockpile of rockets and missiles left by Syrian troops.

The attack appeared aimed at preventing these weapons from falling into the hands of radical groups, one source told Reuters.

New Delhi:

Syria’s future hinges on uncertainty after the abrupt fall of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Once thought unassailable, Assad’s rule collapsed under the pressure of a rapid offensive led by a group called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly known as the Al-Nusra Front affiliated with terror group Al-Qaeda, and allied factions. 

Bashar al-Assad came to power in 2000, succeeding his father, Hafez al-Assad, who ruled Syria with an iron grip for nearly three decades. Initially, there were hopes that Bashar would bring reform and openness to Syria. However, these aspirations were dashed as he maintained the repressive structure of his father’s regime.

READ | Fall Of Assads: How An Alawite Family Ruled Over A Sunni Nation For Decades

Assad’s legacy will forever be marred by his response to the protests in 2011, which escalated into a brutal civil war. Over half a million people have been killed, six million became refugees, and countless more are internally displaced. With military backing from Russia and Iran, Assad survived against a fragmented opposition, relying on Russian air power and Iranian-backed militias like Hezbollah.

Preoccupied with their own struggles – Russia in Ukraine and Iran facing regional challenges – neither could offer significant support. Within days, the rebels captured key cities like Aleppo, Hama, and Homs, before advancing into Damascus itself.

A Fragile Transition

Rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani, known now by his real name, Ahmed al-Sharaa, announced the formation of a transitional authority. Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed al-Jalali has been appointed as the caretaker of state institutions.

READ | “End Of Era Of Tyranny”: Bashar Al-Assad Flees Syria As Rebels Move In

In a statement, al-Jalali expressed his willingness to cooperate with any leadership chosen by the Syrian people.

Despite these efforts, HTS’s history – rooted in al-Qaeda – casts a long shadow over its promises of a diplomatic and nationalist approach. Scepticism abounds regarding its long-term intentions and ability to govern a fractured country.

The end of Assad’s rule does not immediately translate to peace for Syrians. HTS’s past association with extremist groups raises fears of a harsh, authoritarian rule under the guise of Islamist governance. Millions of displaced Syrians, both within the country and abroad, face an uncertain future as they watch the unfolding events with hope and trepidation.

The Russian Setback

The fall of Assad marks a blow to Russian influence in the Middle East. Since its intervention in 2015, Russia has been the regime’s most steadfast supporter, maintaining strategic assets such as the Tartous naval facility and the Hmeimim airbase in Latakia. These bases are vital for projecting power across the Mediterranean and into Africa.

READ | How A Syrian Teen Triggered Al-Assad’s Fall With Graffiti 13 Years Ago

However, Russia’s military focus is currently consumed by its war in Ukraine. The loss of control in Syria raises questions about Moscow’s ability to safeguard its strategic footholds in the region. 

Iran Losing The Axis Of Resistance

For Iran, Assad’s downfall disrupts the “Axis of Resistance” that connects Tehran to Hezbollah in Lebanon through Syria. This network has been crucial for transferring weapons and exerting influence in the region. With Hezbollah weakened from its recent conflict with Israel and Iran’s proxies in Yemen and Iraq under pressure, Tehran’s war strategy will need a different approach.

READ | Mass Hangings, Torture That Destroyed Hope: Syria’s ‘Human Slaughterhouse’

Iran’s preoccupation with Israel, which it views as an existential threat, further limits its capacity to respond effectively in Syria. Israel’s recent targeting of Iranian assets has compounded these challenges, leaving Tehran on the defensive.

Turkey’s Role

Turkey’s role in Assad’s fall remains ambiguous. While President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had long advocated for a diplomatic resolution to the Syrian conflict, his calls were consistently rebuffed by Assad. Turkey, home to over three million Syrian refugees, has a vested interest in resolving the conflict to facilitate their return.

READ | Where Is Bashar Al-Assad? Questions Over Syrian President’s Whereabouts

Ankara has denied direct involvement in the HTS offensive, but analysts suggest that Turkey’s tacit approval or indirect support may have played a role. Erdogan’s priorities include securing Turkey’s borders and countering Kurdish militias in northern Syria.

Israel’s Strategic Thinking

For Israel, the collapse of Assad’s regime represents both opportunity and risk. The fall of Iran’s primary ally in Syria disrupts the supply chain to Hezbollah, but the emergence of HTS as a dominant force introduces new uncertainties.

Israel has reinforced its presence along the Golan Heights, preparing for potential spillovers or attempts by rebels to seize Syrian army stockpiles. The Israeli military is also wary of Iran and Hezbollah exploiting the chaos to acquire advanced weaponry.

People gather at Saadallah al-Jabiri Square as they celebrate, after Syria’s Army command notified officers that President Bashar al-Assad’s 24-year authoritarian rule has ended, a Syrian officer who was informed of the move told Reuters, following a rapid rebel offensive that took the world by surprise, in Aleppo, Syria, on December 8, 2024.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed al-Jalali said Sunday (December 8, 2024) he was ready to “cooperate” with any leadership chosen by the people, after rebels said “tyrant” President Bashar al-Assad had fled the country.

The leader of the Islamist Syrian rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, ordered forces not to approach official institutions in Damascus, saying they would remain under the Prime Minister until they were “officially” handed over.

Syria war: LIVE updates on December 8, 2024

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied factions have pressed a lightning offensive since November 27, sweeping swathes of the country from government control, including major cities Aleppo, Hama and Homs.

Provinces in the country’s south and east have also fallen from government hands after local fighters seized control and Mr. Assad’s forces withdrew.

The rebels said early Sunday (December 8, 2024) that “the tyrant Bashar al-Assad has fled” and declared “the city of Damascus free”.

“After 50 years of oppression under Baath rule, and 13 years of crimes and tyranny and (forced) displacement… we announce today the end of this dark period and the start of a new era for Syria,” the rebels said on Telegram.

In a speech broadcast on his Facebook account, Premier Jalali said “this country can be a normal country that builds good relations with its neighbours and the world”.

“But this issue is up to any leadership chosen by the Syrian people. We are ready to cooperate with it (that leadership) and offer all possible facilities,” he added.

Mr. Jalali said he was “ready for any handover procedures”.

Rebel leader Mr. Jolani said in a statement on Telegram: “To all military forces in the city of Damascus, it is strictly forbidden to approach public institutions, which will remain under the supervision of the former prime minister until they are officially handed over.”

“It is forbidden to shoot into the air,” added Mr. Jolani, who has started using his real name Ahmed al-Sharaa instead of his nom de guerre.

Rami Abdel Rahman, head of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor, said “Assad left Syria via Damascus international airport before the army security forces left” the facility.

The fall of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s government Sunday (December 8, 2024) brought to a dramatic close his nearly 14-year struggle to hold onto power as his country fragmented amid a brutal civil war that became a proxy battlefield for regional and international powers.

Mr. Assad’s downfall came as a stark contrast to his first months as Syria’s unlikely president in 2000, when many hoped he would be a young reformer after three decades of his father’s iron grip. Only 34 years old, the Western-educated ophthalmologist was a rather geeky tech-savvy fan of computers with a gentle demeanour.

But when faced with protests against his rule that erupted in March 2011, Mr. Assad turned to the brutal tactics of his father in an attempt to crush them. As the uprising haemorrhaged into an outright civil war, he unleashed his military to blast opposition-held cities, with support from allies Iran and Russia.

PROFILE | Abu Muhammad al-Jolani: Syria’s jihadist-in-chief

International rights groups and prosecutors alleged widespread use of torture and extrajudicial executions in Syria’s government-run detention centres.

The Syrian war has killed nearly half a million people and displaced half the country’s pre-war population of 23 million. As the uprising spiralled into a civil war, millions of Syrians fled across the borders into Jordan, Turkiye, Iraq and Lebanon and on to Europe.

His departure brings an end to the Assad family rule, spanning just under 54 years. With no clear successor, it throws the country into further uncertainty.

Until recently, it seemed that Mr. Assad was almost out of the woods. The long-running conflict had settled along frozen conflict lines in recent years, with Mr. Assad’s government regaining control of most of Syria’s territory while the northwest remained under the control of opposition groups and the northeast under Kurdish control.

While Damascus remained under crippling Western sanctions, neighbouring countries had begun to resign themselves to Mr. Assad’s continued hold on power. The Arab League reinstated Syria’s membership last year, and Saudi Arabia in May announced the appointment of its first ambassador to Syria since severing ties with Damascus 12 years earlier.

However, the geopolitical tide turned quickly with a surprise offensive launched by opposition groups based in northwest Syria in late November. Government forces quickly collapsed, while Mr. Assad’s allies, preoccupied by other conflicts — including Russia’s war in Ukraine and the yearlong wars between Israel and the Iran-backed militant groups Hezbollah and Hamas — appeared reluctant to forcefully intervene.

Mr. Assad’s whereabouts were not clear Sunday (December 8, 2024), amid reports he had left the country as insurgents took control of the Syrian capital.

He came to power in 2000 by a twist of fate. His father had been cultivating Bashar’s oldest brother Basil as his successor, but in 1994 Basil was killed in a car crash in Damascus. Bashar was brought home from his ophthalmology practice in London, put through military training and elevated to the rank of colonel to establish his credentials so he could one day rule.

When Hafez Assad died in 2000, Parliament quickly lowered the presidential age requirement from 40 to 34. Bashar’s elevation was sealed by a nationwide referendum, in which he was the only candidate.

Hafez, a lifelong military man, ruled the country for nearly 30 years during which he set up a Soviet-style centralized economy and kept such a stifling hand over dissent that Syrians feared even to joke about politics to their friends.

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He pursued a secular ideology that sought to bury sectarian differences under Arab nationalism and the image of heroic resistance to Israel. He formed an alliance with the Shiite clerical leadership in Iran, sealed Syrian domination over Lebanon and set up a network of Palestinian and Lebanese militant groups.

Bashar initially seemed completely unlike his strongman father.

Tall and lanky with a slight lisp, he had a quiet, gentle demeanour. His only official position before becoming President was head of the Syrian Computer Society. His wife, Asma al-Akhras, whom he married several months after taking office, was attractive, stylish and British-born.

The young couple, who eventually had three children, seemed to shun trappings of power. They lived in an apartment in the upscale Abu Rummaneh district of Damascus, as opposed to a palatial mansion like other Arab leaders.

Initially upon coming to office, Mr. Assad freed political prisoners and allowed more open discourse. In the “Damascus Spring,” salons for intellectuals emerged where Syrians could discuss art, culture and politics to a degree impossible under his father.

EXPLAINED | What’s happening in Syria?

But after 1,000 intellectuals signed a public petition calling for multiparty democracy and greater freedoms in 2001 and others tried to form a political party, the salons were snuffed out by the feared secret police who jailed dozens of activists.

Instead of a political opening, Mr. Assad turned to economic reforms. He slowly lifted economic restrictions, let in foreign banks, threw the doors open to imports and empowered the private sector. Damascus and other cities long mired in drabness saw a flourishing of shopping malls, new restaurants and consumer goods. Tourism swelled.

Abroad, he stuck to the line his father had set, based on the alliance with Iran and a policy of insisting on a full return of the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights, although in practice Mr. Assad never militarily confronted Israel.

In 2005, he suffered a heavy blow with the loss of Syria’s decades-old control over neighbouring Lebanon after the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. With many Lebanese accusing Damascus of being behind the slaying, Syria was forced to withdraw its troops from the country and a pro-American government came into power.

At the same time, the Arab world became split into two camps — one of U.S.-allied, Sunni-led countries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt, the other Syria and Shiite-led Iran with their ties to Hezbollah and Palestinian militants.

Throughout, Mr. Assad relied for largely on the same power base at home as his father: his Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shiite Islam comprising around 10% of the population. Many of the positions in his government went to younger generations of the same families that had worked for his father. Drawn in as well were the new middle class created by his reforms, including prominent Sunni merchant families.

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Mr. Assad also turned to his own family. His younger brother Maher headed the elite Presidential Guard and would lead the crackdown against the uprising. Their sister Bushra was a strong voice in his inner circle, along with her husband Deputy Defence Minister Assef Shawkat, until he was killed in a 2012 bombing. Bashar’s cousin, Rami Makhlouf, became the country’s biggest businessman, heading a financial empire before the two had a falling out that led to Makhlouf being pushed aside.

Mr. Assad also increasingly entrusted key roles to his wife, Asma, before she announced in May that she was undergoing treatment for leukaemia and stepped out of the limelight.

When protests erupted in Tunisia and Egypt, eventually toppling their rulers, Mr. Assad dismissed the possibility of the same occurring in his country, insisting his regime was more in tune with its people. After the Arab Spring wave did move to Syria, his security forces staged a brutal crackdown while Mr. Assad consistently denied he was facing a popular revolt, instead blaming “foreign-backed terrorists” trying to destabilize his regime.

His rhetoric struck a chord with many in Syria’s minority groups — including Christians, Druze and Shiites — as well as some Sunnis who feared the prospect of rule by Sunni extremists even more than they disliked Mr. Assad’s authoritarian rule.

Ironically, on February 26, 2001, two days after the fall of Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak to protesters and just before the wave of Arab Spring protests swept into Syria — in an email released by Wikileaks as part of a cache in 2012 — Mr. Assad e-mailed a joke he’d run across mocking the Egyptian leader’s stubborn refusal to step down.

“NEW WORD ADDED TO DICTIONARY: Mubarak (verb): To stick something, or to glue something. … Mubarak (adjective): slow to learn or understand,” it read.

Internally displaced people arrive at a camp in Tabqa city, Raqqa governorate, northern Syria
| Photo Credit: AP

Thousands of people fled the Central Syrian City of Homs overnight and into Friday (December 6, 2024) morning, a war monitor and residents said, as rebel forces sought to push their lightning offensive against Government forces further south.

They have already captured the key cities of Aleppo in the north and Hama in the center, dealing successive devastating blows to President Bashar Al-Assad, nearly 14 years after protests against him erupted across Syria. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a UK-based war monitor, said thousands of people had begun fleeing on Thursday (December 5, 2024) night towards Syria’s western coastal regions, a stronghold of the Government.

ALSO READ:What’s happening in Syria? Explained 

A resident of the coastal area said thousands of people had begun arriving there from Homs, fearing the rebels’ fast-paced advance. On Friday morning, Israeli air strikes hit two border crossings between Lebanon and Syria, Lebanon’s transport minister Ali Hamieh said. Russian bombing overnight also destroyed the Rustan bridge along the key M5 highway, to prevent rebels from using this main route to Homs city, a Syrian army officer told Reuters.

“There were at least eight strikes on the bridge,” he added. Government forces were working to beef up positions around Homs city with fresh reinforcements, he said. Rebels led by the Islamist faction Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham had pledged to move on to the central city of Homs, a crossroads city that links the capital Damascus to the north and Assad’s heartland along the coast.

“Your time has come,” said a rebel operations room in an online post, calling on Homs residents to rise up in revolution.

The Syrian rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which seized Aleppo in a shock offensive over the weekend, is an Islamist movement that has long ruled swathes of the country’s northwest.

The group has sought to moderate its image in recent years, including by cutting ties with its one-time sponsor Al-Qaeda, but it faces an uphill battle convincing Western governments it has fully renounced hardline jihadism, experts say.

Aleppo had been held by Syrian government forces since late 2016.

HTS says it no longer has any links to Al-Qaeda after severing them in 2016, five years into Syria’s civil war.

It took on its current name the following year, arresting Al-Qaeda and Islamic State group jihadists, according to the International Crisis Group (ICG) think tank.

But it remains blacklisted by the United States and the European Union.

In large parts of the northwestern Idlib province it has controlled since 2019, it has set up a so-called “salvation government” that controls the rebel stronghold’s economy and whose judges are largely loyal to HTS.

“Throughout parts of northwestern Syria, the rebels have started setting up and building upon already established proto-governance structures, indicating their ambition to govern and maintain control,” wrote the New-York-based Soufan Center.

“Some of these efforts date back years, with sophisticated attempts to subsidise the cost of food and stabilize the banking and energy sectors in the areas under HTS control.”

– ‘Insurgent group’ –

Jerome Drevon, a jihadism expert at ICG, said HTS “provides basic services to the population”, coordinating with US aid agencies helping to funnel humanitarian aid to the millions in need in territories it holds.

Even if some view it as authoritarian, “it provides homogeneous governance, which contrasts with other regions in Syria”, he told AFP.

French journalist Wassim Nasr met HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani last year.

“He and his group are no longer committed to whatever is meant by international jihad, that was crystal clear. They consider that it ‘only brought destruction and failure to their communities’,” he told a publication of the Combating Terrorism Center linked to US military academy West Point.

“Women go to school, women drive, you see people smoking in the street. Of course, they far from espouse democratic values or those of a liberal free society, but it’s a shift.”

Drevon said that, whatever the reasons for HTS breaking ties with Al-Qaeda years ago — whether it was tactical to avoid unwanted US attention or not — “now it behaves like an insurgent group” with domestic aims, without any “dimension of international terrorism”.

– ‘Incredibly opportunistic’ –

Several experts, however, warned the group has not fundamentally broken with its past despite its rebranding.

Tammy Lynn Palacios, of the New Lines Institute, said HTS “has demonstrated that it is incredibly opportunistic in its allegiances and associations”.

It “remains a jihadist organisation until HTS leadership successfully omits connections of its rank and file with more hardline jihadist groups and individuals”, she told AFP.

“Al-Qaeda is not done with HTS, no matter how much HTS is done with al-Qaeda and thus nothing short of public and formal disavowal of al-Qaeda will truly lessen the threat of jihadist extremism in northwest Syria,” she added.

The Soufan Center also points out that “while there are signs that minorities and non-Sunnis will be respected by even extreme elements of the rebels such as HTS, terrorist organizations’ participation in the offensive causes some alarm”.

Like the Taliban in power in Afghanistan since 2021 but not recognised in the West, HTS will likely struggle to leave Western “terrorist” lists.

Hans-Jakob Schindler, the director of the Counter Extremism Project (CEP), said this was justified.

“If you have to ask for permission before you break ties with al-Qaeda, from the leadership of Al-Qaeda, the sincerity of the ideological reorientation is in question,” he told AFP.

He pointed to the case of a young Austrian man who Munich police shot dead in September after he opened fire at the Israeli consulate in the German city.

Investigators last year found three videos he had recorded in 2021, showing scenes from a computer game “with Islamist content”, according to Austrian prosecutors.

In one of them, the suspect had used an avatar with a flag of the “al-Nusra Front”, the name of HTS before it severed ties with Al-Qaeda in 2016.

“There is absolutely no debate about the fact that they should remain listed as a terrorist group,” Schindler said.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)