On May 1, 2003, nearly two months after launching the invasion of Iraq, the then U.S. President George W. Bush landed on the deck of the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, which was off the San Diego coast after returning from combat operations in the Persian Gulf.

Arriving in a Lockheed S-3 Viking and dressed in a flight suit, Mr. Bush posed for photographs with pilots and crew members. A few hours later, he announced the end of major combat operations in Iraq. “In this battle, we have fought for the cause of liberty and for the peace of the world. Our nation and our coalition are proud of this accomplishment, yet it is you, the members of the United States military, who achieved it,” Mr. Bush said from the flight deck of the carrier. Above him hung the warship’s now-famous banner: “Mission Accomplished”.

Except that it wasn’t. On September 30, more than 23 years after Mr. Bush gave his “mission accomplished” speech, the U.S. forces withdrew from their last military base in Iraq, wrapping up their combat operations and leaving the country in the hands of a divided government and powerful Iran-backed Shia militias. Iran, which is currently at war with the U.S., and the militias have welcomed the U.S. withdrawal as a victory.

Stuck in Iraq

The U.S. invaded Iraq saying Saddam Hussein’s regime had possessed weapons of mass destruction and harboured al-Qaeda terrorists. The invasion was the second stop in Mr. Bush’s ‘war on terrorism’.

Before launching the attack, Mr. Bush had grouped Iraq, Iran, and North Korea together as the ‘Axis of Evil’, indicating that Iran could be the next target. The claim about weapons of mass destruction turned out to be false. Al-Qaeda gained a foothold in Iraq only after the U.S. invasion toppled the Saddam Hussein regime.

Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), one of the most violent branches of the terrorist organisation, later transformed into the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and spread terror across the region and beyond. Iraq also fell into a deadly sectarian civil war between Shias and Sunnis.

Perhaps the most consequential effect of the invasion was the expansion of Iranian influence across Iraq. Saddam’s Iraq, which had fought an eight-year-long war with Iran, had remained a buffer between the Islamic Republic and Gulf monarchies.

Once Saddam was gone, Iran, which had built historical ties with Iraq’s Shia parties that had been suppressed by the Baathist regime, extended and deepened its reach. It also supported Shia militias with money, weapons and training to trap U.S. forces, as Tehran feared that the U.S. could turn against Iran next if it managed to stabilise Iraq.

Forever war

Over the past 23 years, the U.S. had spent some $1.7 trillion and lost 4,500 troops in Iraq. Hundreds of thousands of Iraqis were also killed during the war.

In 2011, the then President Barack Obama had announced an end to U.S. combat operations in Iraq. But after the Islamic State captured huge swathes of territory in Iraq, including Mosul, the second largest city, U.S. troops returned to fight IS terrorists.

Since then the U.S. had retained some 2,500 troops, mostly in its bases in Erbil, in Iraqi Kurdistan. All these troops are now being withdrawn. Some marines will remain in the country to protect U.S. diplomatic missions — besides the Embassy in Baghdad, the U.S. has a large consulate in Erbil. U.S. military contractors would continue to help the Iraqi army maintain its F-16 fleet and U.S.-made tanks.

President Trump says Iraq can now take care of its own security and hence the U.S. troops are no longer needed. But the ground situation is a lot more complex.

U.S. troops came under increasing attack from Iran-backed Shia militias in recent years. The militias are powerful political and military entities today. Even though the Iraqi government has pushed them to disarm, it has faced severe resistance.

After the U.S. war on Iran began on February 28, the militias, loosely called Popular Mobilisation Units (Hashad al-Shabi), have stepped up their attacks on U.S. forces.

In the first two months of the war, Iran and the Shia militias launched more than 600 attacks on U.S. military and diplomatic facilities in Iraq. The U.S. found it increasingly difficult to keep a large group of troops in a region that’s turning hostile, and Mr. Trump decided to stick to the Biden-era deadline of completing the withdrawal by September 30.

Shifting balance

Even though Iran built deep influence in Iraq through Shia political parties and militias after the American invasion, the presence of U.S. troops and an autonomous Kurdistan closely aligned with Washington provided a counterweight, maintaining a balance between the two rival centres of power.

With the U.S. troops leaving, that balance could tilt further in Iran’s favour. Iranian attacks have already forced Washington to substantially reduce its military presence across the Persian Gulf region.

When U.S. air strikes killed Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the commander of Hashad, along with Qassem Soleimani, in January 2020, many saw it as a major blow to Iraq’s Shia militias. Six years later, as U.S. troops leave the last of their bases in Iraq, Hashad appears to be more deeply entrenched than ever. So is Iran.

Published – September 30, 2026 02:57 pm IST

Heading into the glitzy final night of the Democratic National Convention (DNC) in Chicago, speculation was rife online about who would be the much vaunted special guest, with figures from ex Republican President George W Bush to superstar musician Beyonce and Taylor Swift in the frame.

It proved to be way off the mark.

George W Bush was put forward as a contender for the surprise spot, with “Republicans against Trump” posting a picture of Bush embracing then first lady Michelle Obama to the account’s 765,000 followers on X.

George Bush’s spokesperson Freddy Ford told John Bachman, veteran TV news anchor with Newsmax, that Bush is “definitely not” in Chicago to speak at the DNC.

Former Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, currently a US senator who has criticized former president Donald Trump, also denied it would be him.

“Contrary to fake news posts, I am not the surprise guest at the DNC tonight. My guess is that it will be Beyonce or Taylor Swift,” Mr Romney posted on X. “So disappointing, I know!”

Contrary to fake news posts, I am not the surprise guest at the DNC tonight. My guess is that it will be Beyoncé or Taylor Swift. So disappointing, I know!

— Mitt Romney (@MittRomney) August 22, 2024

However, many anti-Trump Republicans spoke at this year’s DNC throughout the week, taking a stance against the former president and endorsing Kamala Harris and her running mate Tim Walz instead.

This list includes former Trump White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham, former homeland security adviser Olivia Troye, former Republican Representative Adam Kinzinger, and even Trump’s former lawyer, Michael Cohen.

But Bush is perhaps one of the most prominent Republicans to publicly announce he was not supporting Trump – sparking rumors he may make a surprise appearance on Thursday.

Kamala Harris accepted her party’s presidential nomination on the final day of the convention, buoyed by a galaxy of stars, that set the stage for the grueling run-in to November 5.

The 59-year-old Californian has edged ahead by razor-thin margins in polling, reversing what had started to look like a likely Trump victory against Biden before he dramatically pulled out and endorsed Harris.

Democratic heavy hitters, from Michelle Obama and Bill Clinton to vice presidential nominee Tim Walz, have warned that the party could still lose to Trump’s Republicans if complacency creeps in.

Walz, a former school football coach, used a sporting analogy, saying that Democrats were “down a field goal, but we’re on offense and we’ve got the ball.”

Party strategists spent the week in Chicago showcasing a parade of anti-Trump Republicans, including ex-cabinet officials, a small-town mayor and a former statewide office holder.

“If you vote for Kamala Harris in 2024, you’re not a Democrat, you’re a patriot,” former Georgia lieutenant governor Geoff Duncan said.

Ms Harris called Trump an “unserious” person.

“I will be a president who unites us around our highest aspirations,” Harris said in her keynote speech, earning uproarious applause.

(With inputs from AFP)