On May 1, 2003, nearly two months after launching the invasion of Iraq, the then U.S. President George W. Bush landed on the deck of the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, which was off the San Diego coast after returning from combat operations in the Persian Gulf.
Arriving in a Lockheed S-3 Viking and dressed in a flight suit, Mr. Bush posed for photographs with pilots and crew members. A few hours later, he announced the end of major combat operations in Iraq. “In this battle, we have fought for the cause of liberty and for the peace of the world. Our nation and our coalition are proud of this accomplishment, yet it is you, the members of the United States military, who achieved it,” Mr. Bush said from the flight deck of the carrier. Above him hung the warship’s now-famous banner: “Mission Accomplished”.
After a successful landing, President George W. Bush gives the thumbs-up sign as he meets with flight crews on the deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln on May 1, 2003.
| Photo Credit:
Courtesy White House
Except that it wasn’t. On September 30, more than 23 years after Mr. Bush gave his “mission accomplished” speech, the U.S. forces withdrew from their last military base in Iraq, wrapping up their combat operations and leaving the country in the hands of a divided government and powerful Iran-backed Shia militias. Iran, which is currently at war with the U.S., and the militias have welcomed the U.S. withdrawal as a victory.
Stuck in Iraq
The U.S. invaded Iraq saying Saddam Hussein’s regime had possessed weapons of mass destruction and harboured al-Qaeda terrorists. The invasion was the second stop in Mr. Bush’s ‘war on terrorism’.
Before launching the attack, Mr. Bush had grouped Iraq, Iran, and North Korea together as the ‘Axis of Evil’, indicating that Iran could be the next target. The claim about weapons of mass destruction turned out to be false. Al-Qaeda gained a foothold in Iraq only after the U.S. invasion toppled the Saddam Hussein regime.
Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), one of the most violent branches of the terrorist organisation, later transformed into the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and spread terror across the region and beyond. Iraq also fell into a deadly sectarian civil war between Shias and Sunnis.
US President George W. Bush shakes hands with members of the National Guard 118th Air Lift Wing after landing at Nashville International Airport 10 February, 2003 in Nashville. The Bush administration, convinced Iraq continues to conceal weapons of mass destruction, now has 110,000 troops in the Gulf ready to unleash a massive attack on Baghdad to overthrow President Saddam Hussein and occupy his country.
| Photo Credit:
AFP
Perhaps the most consequential effect of the invasion was the expansion of Iranian influence across Iraq. Saddam’s Iraq, which had fought an eight-year-long war with Iran, had remained a buffer between the Islamic Republic and Gulf monarchies.
Once Saddam was gone, Iran, which had built historical ties with Iraq’s Shia parties that had been suppressed by the Baathist regime, extended and deepened its reach. It also supported Shia militias with money, weapons and training to trap U.S. forces, as Tehran feared that the U.S. could turn against Iran next if it managed to stabilise Iraq.
Forever war
Over the past 23 years, the U.S. had spent some $1.7 trillion and lost 4,500 troops in Iraq. Hundreds of thousands of Iraqis were also killed during the war.
In 2011, the then President Barack Obama had announced an end to U.S. combat operations in Iraq. But after the Islamic State captured huge swathes of territory in Iraq, including Mosul, the second largest city, U.S. troops returned to fight IS terrorists.
A fighter of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) holds an ISIL flag and a weapon on a street in Mosul, Iraq, on June 23, 2014.
| Photo Credit:
Reuters
Since then the U.S. had retained some 2,500 troops, mostly in its bases in Erbil, in Iraqi Kurdistan. All these troops are now being withdrawn. Some marines will remain in the country to protect U.S. diplomatic missions — besides the Embassy in Baghdad, the U.S. has a large consulate in Erbil. U.S. military contractors would continue to help the Iraqi army maintain its F-16 fleet and U.S.-made tanks.
President Trump says Iraq can now take care of its own security and hence the U.S. troops are no longer needed. But the ground situation is a lot more complex.
U.S. troops came under increasing attack from Iran-backed Shia militias in recent years. The militias are powerful political and military entities today. Even though the Iraqi government has pushed them to disarm, it has faced severe resistance.
After the U.S. war on Iran began on February 28, the militias, loosely called Popular Mobilisation Units (Hashad al-Shabi), have stepped up their attacks on U.S. forces.
In the first two months of the war, Iran and the Shia militias launched more than 600 attacks on U.S. military and diplomatic facilities in Iraq. The U.S. found it increasingly difficult to keep a large group of troops in a region that’s turning hostile, and Mr. Trump decided to stick to the Biden-era deadline of completing the withdrawal by September 30.
Shifting balance
Even though Iran built deep influence in Iraq through Shia political parties and militias after the American invasion, the presence of U.S. troops and an autonomous Kurdistan closely aligned with Washington provided a counterweight, maintaining a balance between the two rival centres of power.
Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf (center right) lays a wreath at the grave of Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the Iraqi paramilitary commander killed alongside Qassem Soleimani in a 2020 U.S. drone strike, at Wadi al-Salam cemetery in Najaf, Iraq, on Aug. 21, 2026.
| Photo Credit:
AP
With the U.S. troops leaving, that balance could tilt further in Iran’s favour. Iranian attacks have already forced Washington to substantially reduce its military presence across the Persian Gulf region.
When U.S. air strikes killed Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the commander of Hashad, along with Qassem Soleimani, in January 2020, many saw it as a major blow to Iraq’s Shia militias. Six years later, as U.S. troops leave the last of their bases in Iraq, Hashad appears to be more deeply entrenched than ever. So is Iran.
Published – September 30, 2026 02:57 pm IST
