Brazilian presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. File.
| Photo Credit: AP

A demonstrator carries a makeshift figure with Brazilian presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro’s picture during a protest by students against what organisers say is the growth of the far-right movement, ahead of the runoff of the Brazilian presidential election, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 7, 2026.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

Senator Flavio Bolsonaro held a narrowing lead in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election on Sunday (October 4, 2026), after more than half the votes were counted, ‌with pollster Datafolha projecting that the election would proceed to a second vote.

Mr. Flavio, the 45-year-old son of former President Jair Bolsonaro who hopes to ​return his father’s right-wing movement to power, was leading leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (80), who is seeking a fourth term, following a campaign dominated ⁠by corruption scandals, economic anxiety and accusations of U.S. meddling.

With about 65% of votes reported, Mr. Flavio led Mr. Lula with 49.58% of the votes to the President’s 42.25%. A candidate must pass 50% in order to win outright in the first round.

The two leading candidates were expected to head into a second round vote, Brazilian pollster Datafolha said. Surveys have shown Mr. Lula and Mr. Flavio polling roughly even in an October 25 runoff.

Early results ‌showed southern states that lean to Mr. Bolsonaro reporting faster, while votes from Mr. Lula’s northeast stronghold are tallied more slowly.

Analysts told Reuters they believed Mr. Flavio was receiving “protest votes” of people voting against Mr. Lula rather than for the right-wing senator — votes they had been expected to save until a second round.

A victory for the senator would ‌extend a wave of wins across Latin America by right-wing candidates aligned with U.S. President Donald Trump, while Lula’s reelection could create a headache for Washington, which has clashed ‌with ⁠his government over trade and security.

Despite growing worries over Brazil’s public finances and sluggish economic growth, the campaign offered meager policy debate, as both leading candidates skipped ⁠the major TV debates.

Undecided voters

While polls right up until Saturday (October 3, 2026) showed Mr. Lula would likely lead the first round but not avoid a runoff, Mr. Flavio told journalists in Rio de Janeiro he was confident he could win the presidency in the first round, citing voters’ frustration with his chief opponent.

Mr. Flavio was counting on “a protest vote from people who would otherwise vote for another candidate but are opposed to Mr. Lula,” he said. “I hope it’s enough to secure a victory in ​the first round.”

Thaise Lima, a 41-year-old lawyer on her way to vote in ‌Sao Paulo, said her main goal was to get Mr. Lula’s Workers’ Party out of office.

“I don’t think Flavio is the best candidate, but I might decide to vote for him in the next few minutes,” she said, adding that she wished psychiatrist and author Augusto Cury were a more viable candidate.

Fernando Tempel, 49, a management consultant, told Reuters he was voting for Flavio despite initially planning to vote for Romeu Zema, the former governor of Minas Gerais state.

Outside interference

On the other hand, Mr. Lula’s allies have warned that the Trump administration ‌might refuse to recognize election results if he wins, pointing to an aborted effort to send U.S. officials to Brazil.

“What is at stake is the future of ​Brazil,” Mr. Lula said after voting in Sao Bernardo do Campo, in Sao Paulo state.

Mr. Trump has not formally endorsed a candidate, though he hosted Senator Flavio Bolsonaro at the White House and praised him publicly.

“I’m a little worried about everything that’s been happening recently, including internationally. I feel this election has had a ⁠lot of outside influence, more than in previous elections,” said Cristiano, 34, a doctor in Brasilia who voted for Lula and preferred to withhold his surname.

“We are confident in our President Lula, who will fight for national sovereignty,” said Pedro Palacio, 45, who was voting in Brasilia alongside his wife, Andreia, and their two sons and two dogs, all of whom wore outfits supporting the President.

As ‌of Sunday (October 4, 2026) afternoon, the election was proceeding normally, Brazil’s electoral court chief Kassio Nunes Marques said in a press conference.

“Teams monitoring international risks have not identified any risks whatsoever,” he said.

Reuters reported on Wednesday that Brazilian intelligence officials briefed a French and German delegation on alleged U.S. and Russian interference before the election. The U.S. has rejected claims of interference in Brazil’s affairs.

Economic headwinds

Despite falling inequality and unemployment, Mr. Lula has struggled to win over voters grappling with high living costs, heavy household debt and the threat of street crime and more pervasive gang activity.

Flavio Bolsonaro has sought to capitalize on cost-of-living concerns, while Mr. Lula has moved to ban online gambling and, as the race tightened, expanded welfare and proposed fresh debt relief for families.

Rising spending and public debt above 82% of GDP have stoked fiscal concerns that Brazil’s next President will need to address. The government lowered its economic growth forecasts for this year and next to 2.0% and 2.3% respectively.

“I voted for ‌Brazil to start growing again,” said Marciano de Souza e Silva, a 52-year-old public servant in Brasilia and former Mr. Lula voter who moved right, voting for Jair Bolsonaro in 2018 and 2022 and Mr. Flavio on Sunday (October 4, 2026).

“The best ​social program is one that encourages people to start businesses, to actually produce real wealth,” he said.

Scandal-plagued campaigns

Overshadowing the policy debate, a scandal surrounding the now-defunct Banco Master has engulfed much of Brazil’s political class and renewed public anger over corruption.

Daniel Vorcaro, who ran the bank, was arrested earlier this year and ⁠accused of a multibillion-dollar fraud scheme. The investigation has probed the banker’s ties to figures from Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes to Flavio Bolsonaro, who is being investigated for money laundering tied to ⁠the case by the federal police.

The candidate has denied any wrongdoing, although he confirmed raising millions of dollars from Mr. Vorcaro to make a movie about his father.

The banker’s connections to Mr. Moraes, widely perceived as a Mr. Lula ally, plunged the court into crisis a month before the vote, creating fresh problems for the President. Mr. Moraes has said the case ‌against him is politically motivated for his role in the conviction of the elder Mr. Bolsonaro.

On Sunday (October 4, 2026), voters will also elect all 513 lower house members and two-thirds of the Senate, where some lawmakers have pushed to impeach Mr. Moraes.

Congress has gained greater influence in Brazilian politics since the impeachment of former President Dilma Rousseff, a Lula ally, in 2016, raising the ​stakes of those legislative races.

Illustration: Sreejith R. Kumar

Brazil’s right-wing Liberal Party on Saturday (July 26, 2026) formally nominated Flavio Bolsonaro, a 45-year-old senator and son of imprisoned ex-president Jair Bolsonaro, as its candidate in the October Presidential election.

He is set to face off against leftist incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 80, who is seeking a fourth nonconsecutive term and has gained momentum in recent weeks as the younger Bolsonaro faced a series of crises.

Far-right firebrand Jair Bolsonaro anointed his eldest son Flavio as his political heir after being sentenced to 27 years in prison for plotting a coup following his 2022 election loss to Lula.

“I may be calmer, more cheerful, more composed and more moderate, but Bolsonaro blood flows here!” Mr. Flavio, touching his arm, declared to a cheering crowd in a Sao Paulo warehouse.

He warned that Brazil —Latin America’s largest country in population, area and economy — “could take giant strides toward a dictatorship” if Mr. Lula wins reelection.

That alarmist rhetoric was echoed by Argentina’s libertarian President Javier Milei, who joined the convention in person to lend support to Flavio Bolsonaro.

“I firmly believe there is no one else capable of putting an end to the Lula risk hanging over Brazil,” Mr. Milei said in a typically fiery speech.

Wearing Brazilian national team jerseys, which have become a symbol of the Bolsonaro movement, supporters beat drums and waved flags inside a warehouse next to Sao Paulo’s Pacaembu Stadium.

“We would have liked our candidate to be Jair Bolsonaro, but today Flavio is the best choice,” Fernando Moeno, a 50-year-old retired military police officer attending the convention, told AFP.

Flavio Bolsonaro teared up as he referenced his father, who appeared in an AI-generated video. Courts have barred the ex-president from making political statements while he serves his sentence under house arrest.

Promising to crack down on crime and inflation, Mr. Flavio was neck-and-neck with Mr. Lula in the polls until he was hit by a series of scandals: ties to a disgraced banker, a family feud, and new tariffs imposed by ally U.S. President Donald Trump.

Pollster Datafolha published a survey Friday showing that in a runoff election, Mr. Lula would win 48% of the votes to Mr. Flavio’s 43%.

A wave of scandals

Mr. Flavio’s troubles began in May when an audio recording leaked of him asking banker Daniel Vorcaro — accused in a multi-million-dollar fraud case — to finance a film about his father.

Mr. Flavio initially denied any contact with Mr. Vorcaro and told a reporter that the accusation was “a lie.” He now says their relationship was limited to the movie.

On Thursday, a Supreme Court justice ordered an investigation into the financing of the film.

Then Mr. Flavio’s stepmother, Michelle Bolsonaro, posted an Instagram video saying he had “disrespected me and mistreated me…he said I didn’t understand anything about politics.”

The former first lady is key to the right-wing movement’s appeal among Brazil’s large female and evangelical electorate.

Mr. Flavio then read out a letter on social media from Jair Bolsonaro urging unity — contravening the terms of his father’s house arrest, prompting a supreme court justice to deny him visits with Jair until after the first round of voting.

This week, Mr. Flavio posted a video apologizing to Michelle, who quickly accepted the olive branch.

Tariff troubles

Mr. Flavio has cast himself as a more moderate version of his father, but is a hardliner on crime and this week echoed the older Bolsonaro in raising debunked concerns about Brazil’s electronic voting system.

A Brazilian diplomatic source said Saturday (July 25) that visas had been denied to U.S. officials seeking talks on election matters over concerns of a “risk of political exploitation.”

But a U.S. State Department spokesperson said: “Any insinuation of a ‘ploy’ to undermine a democratic nation’s election is a baseless lie.”

The senator has struggled to seal alliances with Brazil’s influential centrist bloc, with key parties announcing they will remain neutral in the October 4 election.

Flavio Bolsonaro has also faced backlash after Trump’s administration imposed two new rounds of tariffs on Brazil this month.

The Bolsonaro family had backed earlier tariffs imposed in retaliation for the trial of the former president, prompting Lula to accuse them of treason.

Published – July 26, 2026 09:41 pm IST