The business end of the FIFA World Cup is well underway with the Round of 16 concluding and the Round of 8 (quarterfinals being finalised). While some of the all-time favourites such as Brazil, Germany and the Netherlands are out of the reckoning, a few of the usual suspects – defending champion Argentina, last World Cup finals’ runner-up France, Spain, and England are still in contention. France takes on Morocco in the first of the quarterfinals on Friday (India time: 12:30 AM). 

The table below looks at the teams that have made it to the quarterfinals and how they have fared in comparison to their pre-tournament rankings measured in terms of Elo Ratings. The Elo system, similar to the method used in chess, rates teams by looking at their relative records against other teams. It is useful as a standardised rating and a better tool for analysis than the FIFA rankings, whose methodologies have changed in the course of time. 

The Top 4 teams, in terms of Elo Ratings, at the start of the tournament, Spain, Argentina, France and England – in that order – still remain in contention. All four of them have improved their Elo ratings, thanks to their record, with France making the highest increase – 80 points. Despite this increase, France still remains third in Elo, with Argentina narrowly ahead in second spot. Of the remaining four in the quarterfinals – Morocco, Belgium, Switzerland and Norway, the North African team made the biggest leap with 94 points, to jump 12 slots in the rankings to the 12th place in the world today. The other three also registered jumps. 

On Elo alone, Spain, Argentina, France and England would be the favourites to lift the trophy.

While Elo ratings are measured based on relative performance, it is useful to look at actual footballing performance in terms of goals scored and conceded to analyse the performance of the quarterfinalists. 

A look at the raw numbers in the above table shows France setting the pace, scoring 14 goals across games and conceding just two, for a goal difference of +12 and registering a goals-difference of 2.4 per game.Spain and Argentina followed on 1.8, by contrasting routes. Spain’s was thanks to a stellar defence which ensured that they registered clean sheets in every game – no team has scored against La Furia Roja all tournament. Argentina scored as many goals as France – 14, but they also conceded five (two against Egypt which almost upset the defending champions). Belgium had an average goals-difference of 1.6, while England and Morocco’s mark was 1.2. Norway had the lowest average goal-difference of 0.6, having conceded nine goals in five games. 

While Elo ratings and actual goals are useful in ranking the quarterfinalists by relative strength and outcomes respectively, it is necessary also to look at how well a team has actually played. This can be based on key parameters such as the quality of the chances that it created or denied and also on how clinically those chances were converted into goals. This is where “expected goals” or xG, a new metric, helps. It assigns every scoring chance a value between 0 and 1 – the probability that a shot from that position and situation would, on average be converted – weighing other factors such as where the shot was taken, the type of pass or move that created it and the defensive pressure exerted by the defender on the shot-taker. Over a match, a team’s xG is the sum of the number of goals that the chances merited. The difference between this figure and the actual score is a good way to gauge the quality of finishing. 

xG is modelled and different agencies – Opta, FIFA itself and other independent trackers build their models based on different data and assumptions and so xG values differ for each tracker. In the below table, we use RealGM’s expected-goals tracker. XGoals(Sum) gives the total of xG for all games for each team, XGoals(Ave), the average and XGoalsA(Ave), the average for the opposite team. XGoalsDiff = XGoals(Ave) – XGoalsA(Ave).

In terms of xG, Spain moves to the front of the list with an expected-goals differential of +1.69, thanks largely to their stellar defence that limited opponents to an expected-goals figure of just 0.31, the lowest in the tournament for any team. Spain does it unconventionally, its game is not predicated necessarily on defence or defensive tactics such as “parking the bus” (i.e. deploying all its players in defensive positions well within their half). The team has maintained a strong defence thanks to its controlling the possession game (65.8% according to FbRef.com) and rarely allowing the opposition to get to the ball, limiting chances to score. Argentina (+1.59), France (+1.33) round off the top three, with the Albiceleste leading in total XGoals (10.94), thanks largely to its talisman Lionel Messi who has scored eight goals – the highest – in the tournament. The Kylian Mbappe-headlined France is not far behind in XGoals (10.3). Belgium has also created far more goal scoring chances with 10.68 XGoals, but it has also allowed the opposition higher leeway to score.

In sum, France has made the most of the chances that it has created in the tournament, while Spain has been spectacular on defence but somewhat lacking in efficiency in converting chances to actual goals. Argentina’s defence has been just second best to Spain, but the fact that it has conceded more goals speaks to some of the extraordinary ones scored against them (Sidny Cabral’s screamer for Cabo Verde and Zico’s goals off outstanding wing work by Egypt’s forwards come to mind). RealGM’s data shows that the Argentina vs Egypt match had xGoals estimate of 2.8 for Argentina and just 0.98 for Egypt (the actual score was 3-2). 

The three teams – Spain, France and Argentina are clearly the favourites based on their strong play in the tournament with Switzerland, England, Morocco and Belgium bunched up with near equal XGoalsDiff but in different ways (Morocco has the stingiest defence of this lot). Norway’s defence makes it the weak link of the quarterfinalists but it also possesses a lethal forward in Erling Haaland who has helped create chances. 

(With inputs from Devyanshi Bihani. Expected Goals data thanks to RealGM.com)

Published – July 09, 2026 07:59 pm IST

New Zealand attacking midfielder Sarpreet Singh became the first footballer of Indian origin to start a FIFA World Cup match in his team’s 2-2 draw against Iran in their group match in Los Angeles on Tuesday (June 16, 2026).

Born in Auckland to Punjabi parents, the 27-year-old Sarpreet made his World Cup debut in the politically-charged match and had a few attempts at the Iranian goal. He was named in the starting XI by head coach Darren Bazeley and played almost the whole match, substituted only in the 90th minute.

New Zealand coach Bazeley kept faith in Sarpreet till the end as Iran came back twice from a goal down to play out a 2-2 draw. Wearing No. 10 jersey, Sarpreet had three shots at the Iranian goal, including one in the 61st minute which, however, could not beat the Iran goalkeeper.

He operated in the middle of the park in New Zealand’s 4-2-3-1 formation. New Zealand face Egypt in their second Group G match on June 21 in Vancouver.

Two days back, Nishan Velupillay of Australia, another player of Indian descent, made his World Cup debut in his team’s 2-0 win over Turkiye in Vancouver, Canada. The 25-year-old winger was not in the starting line-up and came in from the bench in the 60th minute.

Velupillay was born in Melbourne to an Anglo-Indian mother and a Malaysian father of Sri Lankan Tamil descent.

Before this edition of the FIFA World Cup jointly hosted by the USA, Canada and Mexico, Vikash Dhorasoo of France was the only player of Indian descent to have played a World Cup game. The midfielder, now 52 years old, played two group matches in the 2006 World Cup in Germany where France finished runners-up.

But Dhorasoo, whose forefathers had their roots in Vizianagaram in Andhra Pradesh, actually played just a few minutes combined in the two matches. He came in from the bench in the 84th minute in France’s 0-0 draw against Switzerland on June 13, 2006. Five days later, Dhorasoo came in as a substitute in the 88th minute in the 1-1 draw against South Korea.

Sarpreet played in India in 2018

Sarpreet even played in India during the Intercontinental Cup in 2018 in Mumbai. He played against the likes of Sunil Chhetri after making his NZ debut earlier that year. He was part of a U23 development side, as New Zealand did not send the first team.

Sarpreet scored against Kenya and provided both the assists in New Zealand’s 2–1 win against India. India won the title while NZ finished third in the four-nation tournament.

One year later, Sarpreet became the first player of Indian descent to play in the German first division league when he debuted for Bayern Munich in 2019. He joined the club from Australian A-League side Wellington Phoenix. He came on as a substitute against Werder Bremen.

Initially, Sarpreet was with Bayern’s reserve team in the third division, but his impressive performances earned him a first-team debut under then-manager Hansi Flick.

Sarpreet made his first senior start for Bayern Munich on June 20, 2020, against SC Freiburg. He was part of the squad that won the Bundesliga title in 2019-2020 season.

After his stint in Germany, Sarpreet was with Uniao de Leiria in Portugal for one season before moving to Serbian SuperLiga side FK TSC in 2025.

This year, he returned to New Zealand, playing in the A-League for Phoenix on loan from FK TSC.

He suffered an injury in February, sidelining him for eight weeks but returned on the field in April before making the New Zealand World Cup squad of 26. He has earned 24 international caps for NZ and scored three times.

Sarpreet also played for New Zealand at the 2017 and 2019 FIFA U-20 World Cups.

Two other Indian-origin players

Two more Indian-origin players — Samuel Moutoussamy of DR Congo and Tahsin Mohammed Jamshid of Qatar— are in their respective World Cup squads. Tahsin did not play in Qatar’s 1-1 draw against Switzerland on June 13, while it will have to be seen whether Moutoussamy features in DR Congo’s match against Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal on Wednesday (June 17).

Tahsin, who turns 20 on Tuesday (June 16), was born in Doha to Malayali parents, who moved to Qatar from Kannur in 2006.

The 29-year-old Moutoussamy was born in France to a Congolese mother and Indo-Guadeloupean father of Tamil origin. Indo-Guadeloupeans are mostly descendants of indentured workers who came mostly from South India in the late 19th century.

Under FIFA rules, a player is eligible to play for a national team if a biological mother, biological father, or grandparent was born on that country’s territory. The player should also hold the passport of the country he is representing.

Published – June 16, 2026 03:20 pm IST