The business end of the FIFA World Cup is well underway with the Round of 16 concluding and the Round of 8 (quarterfinals being finalised). While some of the all-time favourites such as Brazil, Germany and the Netherlands are out of the reckoning, a few of the usual suspects – defending champion Argentina, last World Cup finals’ runner-up France, Spain, and England are still in contention. France takes on Morocco in the first of the quarterfinals on Friday (India time: 12:30 AM).
The table below looks at the teams that have made it to the quarterfinals and how they have fared in comparison to their pre-tournament rankings measured in terms of Elo Ratings. The Elo system, similar to the method used in chess, rates teams by looking at their relative records against other teams. It is useful as a standardised rating and a better tool for analysis than the FIFA rankings, whose methodologies have changed in the course of time.
The Top 4 teams, in terms of Elo Ratings, at the start of the tournament, Spain, Argentina, France and England – in that order – still remain in contention. All four of them have improved their Elo ratings, thanks to their record, with France making the highest increase – 80 points. Despite this increase, France still remains third in Elo, with Argentina narrowly ahead in second spot. Of the remaining four in the quarterfinals – Morocco, Belgium, Switzerland and Norway, the North African team made the biggest leap with 94 points, to jump 12 slots in the rankings to the 12th place in the world today. The other three also registered jumps.
On Elo alone, Spain, Argentina, France and England would be the favourites to lift the trophy.
While Elo ratings are measured based on relative performance, it is useful to look at actual footballing performance in terms of goals scored and conceded to analyse the performance of the quarterfinalists.
A look at the raw numbers in the above table shows France setting the pace, scoring 14 goals across games and conceding just two, for a goal difference of +12 and registering a goals-difference of 2.4 per game.Spain and Argentina followed on 1.8, by contrasting routes. Spain’s was thanks to a stellar defence which ensured that they registered clean sheets in every game – no team has scored against La Furia Roja all tournament. Argentina scored as many goals as France – 14, but they also conceded five (two against Egypt which almost upset the defending champions). Belgium had an average goals-difference of 1.6, while England and Morocco’s mark was 1.2. Norway had the lowest average goal-difference of 0.6, having conceded nine goals in five games.
While Elo ratings and actual goals are useful in ranking the quarterfinalists by relative strength and outcomes respectively, it is necessary also to look at how well a team has actually played. This can be based on key parameters such as the quality of the chances that it created or denied and also on how clinically those chances were converted into goals. This is where “expected goals” or xG, a new metric, helps. It assigns every scoring chance a value between 0 and 1 – the probability that a shot from that position and situation would, on average be converted – weighing other factors such as where the shot was taken, the type of pass or move that created it and the defensive pressure exerted by the defender on the shot-taker. Over a match, a team’s xG is the sum of the number of goals that the chances merited. The difference between this figure and the actual score is a good way to gauge the quality of finishing.
xG is modelled and different agencies – Opta, FIFA itself and other independent trackers build their models based on different data and assumptions and so xG values differ for each tracker. In the below table, we use RealGM’s expected-goals tracker. XGoals(Sum) gives the total of xG for all games for each team, XGoals(Ave), the average and XGoalsA(Ave), the average for the opposite team. XGoalsDiff = XGoals(Ave) – XGoalsA(Ave).
In terms of xG, Spain moves to the front of the list with an expected-goals differential of +1.69, thanks largely to their stellar defence that limited opponents to an expected-goals figure of just 0.31, the lowest in the tournament for any team. Spain does it unconventionally, its game is not predicated necessarily on defence or defensive tactics such as “parking the bus” (i.e. deploying all its players in defensive positions well within their half). The team has maintained a strong defence thanks to its controlling the possession game (65.8% according to FbRef.com) and rarely allowing the opposition to get to the ball, limiting chances to score. Argentina (+1.59), France (+1.33) round off the top three, with the Albiceleste leading in total XGoals (10.94), thanks largely to its talisman Lionel Messi who has scored eight goals – the highest – in the tournament. The Kylian Mbappe-headlined France is not far behind in XGoals (10.3). Belgium has also created far more goal scoring chances with 10.68 XGoals, but it has also allowed the opposition higher leeway to score.
In sum, France has made the most of the chances that it has created in the tournament, while Spain has been spectacular on defence but somewhat lacking in efficiency in converting chances to actual goals. Argentina’s defence has been just second best to Spain, but the fact that it has conceded more goals speaks to some of the extraordinary ones scored against them (Sidny Cabral’s screamer for Cabo Verde and Zico’s goals off outstanding wing work by Egypt’s forwards come to mind). RealGM’s data shows that the Argentina vs Egypt match had xGoals estimate of 2.8 for Argentina and just 0.98 for Egypt (the actual score was 3-2).
The three teams – Spain, France and Argentina are clearly the favourites based on their strong play in the tournament with Switzerland, England, Morocco and Belgium bunched up with near equal XGoalsDiff but in different ways (Morocco has the stingiest defence of this lot). Norway’s defence makes it the weak link of the quarterfinalists but it also possesses a lethal forward in Erling Haaland who has helped create chances.
(With inputs from Devyanshi Bihani. Expected Goals data thanks to RealGM.com)
Published – July 09, 2026 07:59 pm IST
