Campaigners with flyers walk past posters of candidates in the local elections in Kazun Polski near Warsaw, Poland. File
| Photo Credit: AP

Voters across Poland are casting ballots in local elections on April 7 in the first electoral test for the coalition government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk nearly four months since it took power.

Voters will elect mayors, members of municipal councils and provincial assemblies. Nearly 190,000 registered candidates are running for local government positions in the central European nation of 38 million people. Run-off votes will take place on April 21, in cases where mayoral candidates do not win at least 50% of the vote in the first round.

Close contest

Opinion polls released in the days ahead of the vote showed the two largest political formations running neck-and-neck: Tusk’s Civic Coalition, an electoral coalition led by his centrist and pro-European Union Civic Platform party, and Law and Justice, a national conservative party that governed the country from 2015 until last year.

Several other groups trail the two main groups, including the Third Way coalition, the Left and the radical right-wing Confederation party.

Mr. Tusk’s coalition government, which includes the Third Way and the Left, won the national election in October. The result spelt the end of eight bumpy years of rule by Law and Justice, which the European Union accused of violating democratic standards with its changes to the judicial system and public media.

Fulfilling promises

Mr. Tusk won on promises to reverse many of those changes and is trying to implement that programme, but it isn’t easy. His attempts to restore independence to the judicial system are a long process that will require the passage of new legislation.

The promise to liberalise the strict abortion law is being hampered by conservatives in his own coalition.

The vote is also a test for Law and Justice, which had a string of electoral victories and dominated the political scene for years, enjoying strong support in conservative rural areas. However, its hard-line policies on LGBTQ+ and its restriction of abortion rights were rejected by many of the young and female voters who turned out in the fall to vote.

Local governments have played an important role in the two major crises of recent years, rolling out vaccinations against Covid-19 and helping the huge numbers of Ukrainian refugees who arrived in the country after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.

Among those running is Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, a Tusk ally who is seeking a second term. He is favoured to win, but it is not clear if he could win outright Sunday or would need to face a runoff in two weeks.

The outgoing term of office for local officials was the longest since 1989 after Law and Justice extended it from four to five years, and then delayed the elections by half a year, worried that holding local elections along with those to the national parliament would hurt its chances.

Heaping crisis: Polish farmer Piotr Korycki stands in a warehouse filled with grain on his farm in Cywiny Wojskie
| Photo Credit: AP

Piotr Korycki picks up a handful of wheat and watches as the yellow grains run through his fingers.

All around him, grain is piled high in a warehouse on his farm north of the Polish capital: hundreds of tons of wheat, rye and corn left over from last year’s harvest that he is unable to sell for a profit.

With a new harvest on the horizon, he feels pressure to sell what he has to prevent it from going bad.

“The situation on our markets is really very, very tough,” Mr. Korycki said. “And if nothing changes, in a year or two it could become critical.”

His frustrations have pushed him to help organise protests that have been taking place in Poland for the past three months, part of protests by farmers across Europe. Farmers used their tractors to block highways in Poland’s latest nationwide protests on March 20.

Mr. Korycki’s yard is filled with huge bales of hay and modern farm equipment, evidence of the changes to agriculture since Poland joined the European Union nearly 20 years ago. The family farms nearly 500 acre of wheat, rye, corn and sugar beets.

‘Destabilised by war’

The 34-year-old, a farmer like his father and grandfather, says his business has been badly destabilised by Russia’s war against Ukraine, a result of the EU deciding to allow free trade with Ukraine after the war started. The disruption of Ukrainian exports via the Black Sea led to a massive flow of grain across Poland’s border with Ukraine, driving down prices for food products. Inflation, meanwhile, has caused production costs and interest rates on loans to rise.

The EU said on March 20 it was renewing a temporary suspension of import duties and quotas with Ukraine for another year to support the country at war. But it also added oats, maize, groats and honey to a list of products that can be capped, in the latest attempt to appease farmers.

Mr. Korycki didn’t feel the pain for the first year of the war. Early on, the price for grain rose, but then fell below its original level. While he managed to sell part of last year’s harvest, he still has 300 tonne of unsold grain. The surplus represents a loss of 1,00,000 zlotys ($25,000), which he calls “very large.”

In the past, he would have taken the grain to the Baltic Sea coast to sell to buyers who export it abroad by ship. But with the price collapse, what he would get would not cover transport costs. He expects the best he can do is sell it closer to home as animal feed at a loss.

Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk acknowledges that the problem is real, and has been seeking relief for farmers in Brussels, where his voice carries weight after serving as president of the European Council from 2014-2019.

Mr. Tusk has said there are well over 20 million surplus tonne of grain in storage in Europe, with 9 million tons in Poland alone.

“And the summer harvest hasn’t started yet,” Mr. Tusk said in late February. “We do not yet have the infrastructure that would allow this grain to be exported further.”

Green Deal

Adding to the anger of farmers across Europe are EU plans to fight climate change with policies called the Green Deal, which they say will create more administrative work and worsen financial burdens.

The calls of Europe’s farmers have grown increasingly strident even though the European Commission has relented to their pressure by rolling back some environmental requirements — despite warnings by scientists that agricultural production must become more environmentally sustainable in a period of climate change.

Paulina Sobiesiak-Penszko, a sociologist and agricultural expert at the Institute of Public Affairs in Warsaw, said the protests have become more radical, and asserted that they are being exploited by pro-Russian groups to drive an anti-Ukraine agenda.

What is being lost, she argued, is the necessity of addressing the climate crisis, which requires new agricultural policies, and the needs of consumers, who among other things would benefit from less pesticide use in farming.

“This voice of the consumers is not heard at all in the debate,” she said.

A file photo of Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski
| Photo Credit: AP

Poland’s Foreign Minister says the presence of NATO forces “is not unthinkable” and that he appreciates the French President for not ruling out that idea.

Radek Sikorski made the observation during a discussion marking the 25th anniversary of Poland’s accession to NATO in the Polish parliament on Friday, and the Foreign Ministry posted the comments on X.

They reflect a larger European debate over how to help Ukraine as Russia has gained some momentum on the battlefield and Kyiv is running low on ammunition.

Last month French President Emmanuel Macron said the possibility of Western troops in Ukraine could not be ruled out.

The Kremlin has warned that if NATO sends combat troops, a direct conflict between the alliance and Russia would be inevitable. Russian President Vladimir Putin said such a move would risk a global nuclear conflict.

Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk was among those European leaders who initially ruled out sending troops to Ukraine after Macron’s remarks, saying: “Poland does not plan to send its troops to the territory of Ukraine.”

But less than two weeks later Mr. Sikorski struck a different tone.

Poland’s liberal opposition on October 16 appeared on track to win a parliamentary majority, exit polls showed, a day after a national election which saw the highest turnout since the fall of Communism.

The surprise result would end eight years of rule by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, during which relations with the European Union — and in recent weeks with war-torn Ukraine — have dramatically soured.

The Opposition, led by former EU chief Donald Tusk, has billed the parliamentary elections as the “last chance” to save democracy.

“This is the end of grim times,” Mr. Tusk declared late on Sunday.

Putting the liberal opposition in power would bring a huge political shift in Poland, countering the PiS party’s nationalist hardline Catholic vision for the country.

The election was dominated by issues such as Russia’s invasion of neighbouring Ukraine, migrants and women’s rights.

Aleksandra Metlewicz, an interior designer, said women’s rights were “crucial” to her in the vote.

The 33-year-old said she hoped Poland would come of the “Middle Ages”, in which she said it was stuck.

For voters in the capital Warsaw, where support for nationalists is traditionally lower, the outcome predicted in exit polls already heralded major changes.

Natalia Szydlik, a 20-year-old student, also hoped Poland’s strict abortion laws would be liberalised and said she had “big hopes that things will change”.

But, with votes still being counted, heavyweight politicians from both the ruling party and the opposition were largely silent on Monday.

Final results are expected on October 17.

Mr. Tusk has promised to liberalise abortion laws.

This issue, according to analysts, prompted an unprecedented mobilisation among women voters and helped tip the balance in favour of the liberal opposition parties.

“Until recently, half of women said they would not vote. Now these exit polls actually show more women than men voted,” said Justyna Kajta, a sociologist at SWPS University in Warsaw.

For Kajta, the turnout among women, predicted at 73.7%, was the main “positive surprise” of the election.

Projections based on preliminary results and exit polls by Ipsos on Monday showed Mr. Tusk’s Civic Coalition could win 158 seats in the 460-seat parliament.

Two smaller parties which are potential allies, Third Way and Left, were set to win 61 and 30 seats respectively.

That would give the three together a majority of 249.

The expected result is despite PiS throwing all available state resources into its campaign, controlling state television and painting Mr. Tusk as a corrupt villain.

PiS increased its nationalist rhetoric in its campaign and even entered a row with its war-torn neighbour Ukraine, despite huge Polish solidarity with Kyiv in the face of the Russian invasion.

Also Read | EU launches case against Poland over ‘Russian influence’ panel

To the opposition electorate, ending the PiS reign would also restore Poland’s reputation on international stage.

Mr. Tusk has pledged to rebuild relations with Brussels and to unblock EU funds frozen due to an ongoing standoff with Warsaw over the rule of law in Poland.

“I believe that now all these (international) ties will improve and normalise. But this will take some time,” Krzysztof Dabrowski, a pensioner from Warsaw, told AFP.

Mr. Tusk served as Poland’s Prime Minister between 2007 and 2014 and as European Council President between 2014 and 2019.

He managed to bring hundreds of thousands of Poles onto the streets in Poland ahead of the election, claiming that a million people had marched against PiS.

But some worried that he has been around too long.

Karol Jedlinski, a 42-year-old businessman, said he struggled to imagine Tusk leading Poland again.

“He is more of a figure of the past to me.”

But much still depends on President Andrzej Duda.

The conservative figure spoke to reporters on a visit to the Vatican on October 16, praising the high election turnout.

But he urged people to be patient and “wait for the results”. And while he congratulated the election “winners”, he stopped short of saying who he would back.

Analysts warn that any governing coalition formed by the opposition could face run-ins with the President, who is a PiS ally.

PiS meanwhile appeared defiant and has presented the election as a win, since it appeared to have garnered more votes than any other individual party.

Kaczynski said on October 15 he still had “hope” he could form a government.

“This is not a closed road for the moment,” he said.

The most likely coalition partner for PiS had been Confederation, a far-right party.

But the exit poll showed PiS and Confederation together would fall short of a majority, with a total of just 212 seats.

Donald Tusk, a former Polish prime minister addresses supporters at his party headquarters in Warsaw, Poland, on October 15, 2023.
| Photo Credit: AP

Polish opposition leader Donald Tusk said that three opposition parties had sufficient votes to win the general election on Sunday after an exit poll projected that they had enough combined support to oust Law and Justice, the governing conservative nationalist party.

The Ipsos exit poll suggested that the opposition together has likely won 248 seats in the 460-seat lower house of parliament, the Sejm. Law and Justice, according to the projection, obtained 200 seats, while the far-right Confederation got 12 seats.

“I am the happiest man on earth,” Mr. Tusk said. “Democracy has won. Poland has won.”

Law and Justice leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski acknowledged that the outcome was uncertain.

Mr. Kaczynski told supporters at his headquarters that his party’s result, at nearly 37% of the vote, according to the exit poll, was a great success, but acknowledged it might not be able to keep power.

“The question before us is whether this success will be able to be turned into another term of office of our government, and we don’t know that yet. But we must have hope and we must also know that regardless of whether we are in power or in the opposition, we will implement this project in different ways,” Mr. Kaczynski said.

The exit poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Three opposition parties, Tusk’s Civic Coalition, Third Way and the New Left, ran on separate tickets but with the same promises of seeking to oust Law and Justice and restore good ties with the European Union.

Votes were still being counted and the state electoral commission says it expects to have final results by Tuesday morning.

Many Poles feel it is the most important election since 1989, when a new democracy was born after decades of communism. At stake are the health of the nation’s constitutional order, its legal stance on LGBTQ+ rights and abortion, and the foreign alliances of a country that has been a crucial ally to Ukraine after Russia launched its full-scale invasion.

Law and Justice has eroded checks and balances to gain more control over state institutions, including the courts, public media and the electoral process itself.

Support for the party has shrunk since the last election in 2019 amid high inflation, allegations of cronyism and bickering with European allies. Law and Justice won nearly 44% of the vote in 2019, but has been polling in recent weeks at more than 30%.

Others see economic threats in the way the party has governed and believe that high social spending has helped to fuel inflation.

There is also a high level of state ownership in the Polish economy, and the governing party has built up a system of patronage, handing out thousands of jobs and contracts to its loyalists.

The EU, whose funding has driven much of the economic transformation, is withholding billions in funding to Poland over what it views as democratic erosion.

The fate of Poland’s relationship with Ukraine is also at stake. The Confederation party campaigned on an anti-Ukraine message, accusing the country of lacking gratitude to Poland for its help in Russia’s war.

While Poland has been a staunch ally of Ukraine and a transit hub for Western weapons, relations chilled over the Ukrainian grain that entered Poland’s market.

Around 29 million Poles from age 18 were eligible to vote. They were choosing 460 members of the lower house, or Sejm, and 100 for the Senate for four-year terms.

A referendum on migration, the retirement age and other issues is being held simultaneously. Opposition groups oppose the referendum, accusing the government of seeking to tap into emotions. Some called on voters to boycott the referendum.

More than 31,000 voting stations operated across Poland, while there were more than 400 voting stations abroad. In a sign of the emotions generated by the vote, more than 600,000 Poles registered to vote abroad.

On Friday, the Foreign Ministry fired its spokesman after he said that not all the votes cast abroad could be counted before the deadline for submitting them, which would cause them to be invalidated. The ministry said he was dismissed for spreading “false information.”

Individual parties need to get at least 5% of votes to win seats in parliament, while coalitions need at least 8% of votes.

Poland is holding a high-stakes election on October 15 that has energized many voters, with the ruling conservative nationalist party pitted against opposition groups that accuse it of eroding the foundations of the democratic system.

The ruling party, Law and Justice, has a devoted base of supporters in the Central European nation of 38 million who appreciate its defence of Catholic traditions and its social spending on pensioners and families with children. The payments have given relief to poor people.

But support for the party has shrunk since the last election in 2019 — when it won nearly 44% of the vote — amid high inflation, allegations of cronyism and bickering with European allies. Law and Justice has been polling in recent weeks at over 30%, making it the single most popular party but still at risk of losing its majority in parliament.

In that case, some speculate that Law and Justice could need the support of the far-right Confederation party to govern, though both parties campaigned saying that was not an option.

Many Poles feel it is the most important election since 1989 when a new democracy was born after decades of communism. The health of the nation’s constitutional order, its legal stance on LGBTQ+ rights and abortion, and the foreign alliances of a country that has been a crucial ally to Ukraine are all at stake.

Polling in recent days suggested that opposition parties have a chance to deprive the governing populists of an unprecedented third term in a row.

The Civic Coalition, Third Way and New Left have campaigned on promises to repair the rule of law and ties with the EU and other allies if they manage to gain power. The final outcome of the vote could be ultimately decided by the small margins gained or lost by the smaller parties.

Civic Coalition leader Donald Tusk, the former Prime Minister, was cheered by a large crowd when he voted in Warsaw, with people snapping photos and wishing him good luck.

Tomasz Druzynski, an information technology specialist, voted in Warsaw saying he believes change is possible.

“I believe in it and I think this is the first chance in eight years to change something. And I hope this change will come,” Druzynski said.

The continued growth of Poland’s dynamic economy is also on voters’ minds.

Jan Molak, an 80-year-old supporter of the ruling party, credited it with creating a more just economic system and the development boom of recent years.

“Things are getting better and better,” he said after voting in Warsaw.

Others see economic threats in the way the party has governed and believe the high social spending has helped to fuel inflation.

There is also a high level of state ownership in the Polish economy, and the ruling party has built up a system of patronage, handing out thousands of jobs and contracts to its loyalists. Some fear over time that will cause damage.

The EU, whose funding has driven much of the economic transformation, is also withholding billions of euros in funding to Poland over what it views as democratic erosion.

Political experts say the election will not be fully fair after eight years of governance by Law and Justice, which has eroded checks and balances to gain more control over state institutions, including the courts, public media and the electoral process itself.

Retired nurse Barbara Burs voted early in Warsaw, saying she cast her vote to change the government because she wants a better country for her children and grandchildren — a “just and undivided Poland.”

The fate of Poland’s relationship with Ukraine is also at stake. The Confederation party campaigned on an anti-Ukraine message, accusing the country of lacking gratitude to Poland for its help in the war.

While Poland has been a staunch ally of Ukraine and a transit hub for Western weapons, relations chilled over the Ukrainian grain that entered Poland’s market.

Some 29 million Poles aged 18 and above are eligible to vote. They are choosing 460 members of the lower house, or Sejm, and 100 for the Senate for four-year terms.

A referendum on migration, the retirement age and other issues is being held simultaneously. Opposition groups oppose the referendum, accusing the government of seeking to tap into emotions to mobilize its electorate in the close and unpredictable race. Some called on voters to boycott the referendum.

At one polling station on the southern edge of Warsaw, people could be seen apparently declining to vote in the referendum, casting just two ballots into the assigned boxes. Voters were offered three ballots, one for the Sejm, one for the Senate and one for the referendum.

More than 31,000 voting stations across Poland are open from 7 a.m. to 9 p.m. Over 400 voting stations will operate abroad. In a sign of the huge emotions being generated by the vote, more than 600,000 Poles registered to vote abroad.

On October 13, the Foreign Ministry fired its spokesman after he said that not all the votes cast abroad could be counted before the deadline for submitting them, which would cause them to be invalidated. The ministry said he was dismissed for spreading “false information.”

Exit poll results by global polling research firm Ipsos will be announced after polls close.

Individual parties need to get at least 5% of votes to win seats in parliament, coalitions need at least 8% of votes.