In today’s episode, we look at the key election trends in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, tracking major shifts ahead of polling. We also cover the political row in the United States over birthright citizenship, rising tensions in West Asia around the Strait of Hormuz, and a significant change in West Bengal’s campaign landscape, and more

The mandate that Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) had managed to get in Maharashtra during the parliament elections has been lost in the assembly elections. Not many were willing to say which way the election would turn this time. There was almost an agreement among political analysts and pollsters that the election was too close to call. But now it’s clear that much before the election, the voters had decided to vote for Mahayuti.

It is not an ordinary mandate. It is the best-ever performance by the BJP-led alliance.

In 2014, the BJP contested alone and won 122 seats, but in 2019, it contested along with Shiv Sena and had 161 seats together, whereas the Congress-led alliance had to satisfy itself with only 98 seats. This time, Mahayuti has more than 2/3 seats in its kitty. The BJP, Shiv Sena, and NCP all performed better than expected. Now the question is, why has the MVA, which won 30 out of 48 seats in the parliamentary elections, failed so miserably in the assembly elections?

In Jharkhand, on the other hand, INDIA Bloc has managed to regain people’s confidence. This is a stupendous success considering the fact that Chief Minister Hemant Soren was jailed just before the general elections and was behind bars for six months. Once he was out, his trusted colleague Champai Soren deserted the party just before the assembly elections. Still, the JMM-led alliance is heading for a big win, unlike most state has seen before.

Two verdicts from two distant states tell a story: there is no uniform outcome and no single narrative. However, it can be said that women voters played a significant role in both states, and in each, direct cash transfers to women’s accounts proved decisive. In Maharashtra, the female voter turnout rose by 2.5% compared to the 2019 assembly elections, in contrast to male voters. In Maharashtra, the Ladki Bahin Scheme, and in Jharkhand, the Maiya Samman Yojna, both benefited the ruling coalitions.

Another noticeable pattern in both states is that those who won the Lok Sabha election were unable to replicate that performance in the assembly elections. In both states, the Lok Sabha results were reversed in the assembly elections. In Maharashtra, the MVA outperformed the Mahayuti in the parliamentary elections, but in the assembly elections, the Mahayuti reversed the trend. In Jharkhand, the NDA won 9 out of 14 Lok Sabha seats, but in the assembly elections, it was the INDIA alliance that defeated the NDA. This clearly underlines that Lok Sabha and assembly elections are fought on different issues and platforms, and it is erroneous to predict assembly election results based on Lok Sabha outcomes, or vice versa.

Maharashtra election is another example that Congress-led INDIA is not willing to learn any lesson. After the Parliament election, it was expected that Congress in Haryana and MVA in Maharashtra would have easy wins. But in both states, the BJP-led coalition belied all the expectations, and one can say with confidence that the Congress-led alliance has mastered the art of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Let’s not forget that in December 2023, Congress was expected to win MP and Chhattisgarh assembly elections. Whereas when no political pundit was willing to give a chance to the BJP in these two states, it turned the tables and came back with flying colours.

Similarly, the Congress was unable to win the Uttarakhand and Punjab assembly elections in 2022. Therefore, both INDIA bloc and, particularly, the Congress need to reflect and develop a winning strategy. I’m not denying that Congress had successes in Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, and Telangana, but the issue remains: why lose a state that could have been easily won, and why is it that the BJP managed to turn a losing situation into a victory?

The Maharashtra election results could have far-reaching consequences, particularly for Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP). Operation Lotus had already split Shiv Sena and NCP, and the Lok Sabha election delivered a significant blow, not only to Narendra Modi at the centre but also to Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar-led NCP. Despite receiving recognition from the Election Commission, had both parties lost in the assembly elections, their existence would have been seriously jeopardized. Now, the reverse scenario is possible. The Modi government at the centre and the BJP-led Mahayuti government in the state, with a mandate of more than two-thirds, will likely try to weaken both parties, aiming to claim sole ownership of the original Shiv Sena and NCP. Given the results, Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray will find it difficult to retain their MPs. Even the BJP may attempt to poach their MPs by engineering further splits in the parliamentary wings of both parties. If that happens, the BJP at the centre will edge closer to the majority mark in the Lok Sabha. Even if not, MLAs who have won on Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar’s party tickets could be lured to join the treasury benches.

I know it is too early to write the last chapter of Sharad Pawar’s biography, but it is also true that Sharad Pawar, who emerged as a hero in the Parliament election, is now a tragic figure. He has lost after having made an emotional appeal to voters that it was his last election. Sharad Pawar is already 84 years and it is expecting too much for him to remain relevant in 2029 when the next assembly election will be held.

On the other hand, Uddhav Thackeray is much younger, but it must be noted that in both the Lok Sabha and assembly elections, Shinde proved to be better equipped to carry forward Balasaheb Thackeray’s legacy. Uddhav’s performance has been more than disappointing. He and his son, Aditya, will find it very difficult to mount a comeback. Blaming EVMs is poor politics. It makes no sense to blame the EVMs, insinuate any wrongdoing in the election, or propagate the idea that the electoral process has been manipulated unless there is concrete proof.

Finally, on the role of the RSS going forward. It was said that the RSS was less active during the 2024 general election and that was behind the BJP’s below-par performance. Does this mean the RSS’s role in the BJP’s affairs will now be more decisive?

(Ashutosh is the author of ‘Hindu Rashtra’ and co-founder of SatyaHindi.com)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author

Jharkhand is set to vote for 38 seats in the second and final phase of assembly elections on November 20, alongside Maharashtra. In the first phase, held on November 13, the state voted for 43 seats, primarily in Kolhan (14), South Chotanagpur (15), Palamu (9), and a few seats in North Chotanagpur (5). In the second phase, 20 seats in North Chotanagpur and 18 in Santhal Pargana will go to the polls.

The INDIA bloc aims to retain power, buoyed by its welfare schemes and the adivasi asmita (tribal pride) narrative. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), on the other hand, hopes to make a comeback, capitalising on allegations of non-performance and corruption against the Soren government. In the first phase, women voters outnumbered men by 4.8%. In fact, 37 of the 43 constituencies saw higher female voter turnout.

Phase 1 of polling in Jharkhand recorded a voter turnout of 66.65%, a 2.75 percentage point increase from the 2019 elections. Male voter turnout stood at 64.27%, while female turnout was 69.04%. The INDIA bloc has hailed the high turnout, claiming that women beneficiaries of the Maiyya Samman Yojana turned out in large numbers, giving them an edge. The NDA, however, attributes the high turnout to anti-incumbency sentiments.

I travelled through the state during Diwali and Chhath Puja and below are my findings.

Adivasi ‘Asmita’

The arrest of Chief Minister Hemant Soren has reignited the adivasi asmita (tribal pride) issue. In the 2024 general elections, tribals overwhelmingly voted against the NDA, with the INDIA bloc winning all five ST-reserved seats. The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) has successfully framed the narrative that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) jailed their popular Chief Minister as part of a political conspiracy. Hemant Soren has positioned himself as the preeminent tribal leader in Jharkhand. In response, the BJP is attempting to consolidate a coalition of tribal leaders, including Babulal Marandi, Arjun Munda, and Champai Soren, to counter Hemant and showcase its own tribal leadership.

Insider vs Outsider

The elections have turned into a battle between locals and outsiders. Tribals are economically disadvantaged, while outsiders occupy most government and private sector jobs and are generally more prosperous. Tribals accuse outsiders of seizing their land and prospering at their expense. The JMM is viewed as the party representing local interests, while the BJP is seen as representing the outsiders.

An Identity Battle

The lines of identity have become so sharply drawn that voters seem less concerned about the performance of their elected representatives. Despite extensive media debates on issues like anti-incumbency and MLA performance, I found that local voters were generally indifferent to these concerns, provided the MLA belonged to their caste or community. When I probed one local about the performance of their MLA, he responded by saying, “kaam kaun karta hai?” (Who works, after all?)

BJP’s Slogan

The BJP has adopted the slogan ‘Batenge to Katenge’ (divided we fall), which has polarised the election. Jharkhand has a Muslim population of 14.5% (as per the 2011 census), which is roughly equal to the national average. The BJP has raised concerns over issues like ‘love jihad’, accusing Muslim men of marrying tribal women and subsequently taking control of tribal land and local governance through tribal sarpanchs. The BJP has particularly emphasised this issue in Santhal Pargana, accusing the JMM of failing to prevent the infiltration of outsiders, which they claim has altered the region’s demographic makeup. The party has promised the implementation of the National Register of Citizens (NRC) and hopes to make inroads in the region that was swept by the JMM-Congress-Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) alliance in 2019.

Congress A Weak Link?

In the 2019 elections, the Congress won 16 seats, mostly in the Chotanagpur division. The party has traditional strongholds in this region, although, over the years, many of these have shifted to the BJP. Just days before the polls, the Congress replaced its state president, Rajesh Thakur, who had made significant efforts to rebuild the party’s organisation. The Congress is contesting 37 seats in this election, but many view it as the “weak link” of the alliance.

Rise Of Kalpana Soren

The arrest of Hemant Soren propelled Kalpana Soren into the spotlight within the JMM. She took charge of the Lok Sabha campaign and became its star campaigner, connecting with women and young voters and energising the party cadre. Kalpana’s rallies often attract large crowds of tribal women, who relate to her discussions about the benefits of the Maiya Samman Yojana.

Schemes On Offer

The Soren government launched the Maiya Samman Yojana, modelled on the Laadli Bahin Yojana. Under this scheme, the government provides Rs 1,000 per month to 50 lakh women. Women voters are becoming an increasingly important demographic, and are playing a decisive role in elections. The BJP’s manifesto also includes the Go Go Yojana, while the INDIA bloc has promised to increase the cash dole in its manifesto.

Rise Of The Tiger

The rise of Jairam Mahato has shaken up Jharkhand politics. As a Kurmi leader, he has reignited the ‘insider vs outsider’ debate by demanding that the 1932 land records be used as the basis for the domicile policy. His rallies draw large crowds, particularly among the youth, and he has significantly impacted the INDIA bloc’s prospects in the Lok Sabha elections. In the assembly polls, he could pose a challenge to the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU), a party that also represents Kurmis and has been pushing for their inclusion in the ST list.

Bread And Butter Issues

Rising prices, unemployment, and rural distress remain key issues in the state. Jharkhand is one of India’s most backward states, with many of its districts ranked among the 250 most backward in the country. Its per capita income is roughly half the national average. Although Jharkhand is rich in minerals, illegal mining and the lack of industrial development—exacerbated by its landlocked nature—have hindered economic growth.

Battle Of Alliances

The BJP has aligned with the AJSU, the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM), and the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), while the JMM has partnered with the Congress, the RJD and Left parties. Seamless vote transfer between alliance partners will be crucial.

In 2019, the BJP and the AJSU contested separately, leading to their defeat. Had they contested together, they could have won 41 of the 81 seats, securing a simple majority.

There are an average of 15 candidates in each constituency, and independents or smaller parties could play the role of spoilers. Micro-management and voter mobilisation could ultimately decide the outcome.

(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author

Looking to sharpen your mathematical skills? Dive into the Maharashtra elections, where permutations and combinations abound. By the time a new government forms in India’s most industrialised and influential state, you might just feel like a maths wizard.

In fact, psephologists, pollsters, and self-styled political pundits including yours truly should consider this election a refresher course. This is one of the most complex elections India has seen, where conventional wisdom and existing political theories may count for nothing once the people’s verdict is out.

The contest is so fragmented that legacy data is of little use to strategists hoping to read the voters’ minds. Not only has the number of parties increased exponentially, but the average number of candidates per constituency has surged as well—from nine in 2004 to 11 in 2019, and now 14. That too after a record withdrawal of candidates.

Complex Regional Dynamics

Imagine an average of 14 candidates—some rebels, some propped up as independents and many official party candidates—in each of Maharashtra’s 288 constituencies. Add in factors like caste, region, religion, and urban-rural dynamics, and the picture is anything but clear.

But that’s not all. In traditional Shiv Sena strongholds like Konkan and Mumbai, it is Sena versus Sena competing for dominance. In regions with a significant Maratha presence—North, Marathwada, and West—it is going to be NCP (Nationalist Congress Party) versus NCP. As per the latest count, two rival Sena factions—one led by the current chief minister and the other by his predecessor—will face off in 49 assembly seats. Meanwhile, the two NCP factions will compete in 38 seats.

Any guesses as to which way the Marathas will vote or how the Hindutva factor will play out in these Sena and NCP clashes? In Vidarbha, a relatively underdeveloped region, the classical battle between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress continues, with loyalties shifting frequently. Which way will it go this time?

Vidarbha is known for its closely contested elections, though there have been some exceptions. In the 2014 assembly polls, the BJP dominated, winning 44 out of the 62 seats available, while the Congress managed only 10. By the next election, the BJP’s tally fell to 29 seats, while the Congress’s improved to 15. However, in this year’s Lok Sabha elections, there was a significant shift: the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) led in 42 assembly segments, reducing the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to just 19. Will the region flip again as it has done all too frequently?

It’s not just about regional shifts either—there are complexities within complexities. Consider these examples:

• It remains unclear how Maratha quota leader Manoj Jarange Patil’s decision to withdraw from the electoral race will play out. Both the NDA and MVA claim the move will benefit them.
• Which alliance will be more affected by the 25 candidates from Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS)  in the Mumbai region—the NDA or the MVA?
• Despite numerous efforts by top leaders from both major alliances, 18 NDA rebels and 22 MVA rebels remain in the race. Will voters adhere to the official party line and reject the rebel candidates?
• In some constituencies, while the official party candidate has withdrawn, the rebels remain in the race. How will this impact the election results?
• What will happen in constituencies like Mumbai’s Mahim, where the NDA has chosen to support Raj Thackeray’s son, while the sitting MLA from the ruling party refuses to back down?

Now, it’s up to you to analyse the numbers, calculate the potential impacts, and draw your conclusions—putting your math skills to the test.

Region-Wise Voting Patterns In 2019

Statutory Warning: Drawing conclusions based on past elections can be risky! Alliances have changed drastically between 2019 and 2024.

Mushrooming Political Entrepreneurship

If you’re interested in political entrepreneurship, Maharashtra is the place to watch. Rarely has an election seen so many contestants—independents, smaller parties, and two alliances with six parties each. Established players dominate the field, but tensions within alliances have led to a surge of rebels and independents.

Many aspirants hope that the threshold for winning will be lower this time, increasing their chances. Though the major alliances may not admit this, some leaders in both the MVA and the NDA have strategically fielded vote-cutters and rebels to spoil their opponents’ chances. The sheer number of independents reflects a belief that Maharashtra may have a lower entry barrier. Some of these political startups could gain a premium post-verdict, while others may just fade away, only to resurrect later.

A Masterclass In Election Management

This election is also a masterclass in managing a campaign down to the last voter. All six major players are seasoned, yet the contest tests their mettle as the voter remains tight-lipped, keeping everyone guessing. Will voters keep each party on tenterhooks, or will they deliver a decisive verdict in favour of an alliance? No one knows.

One thing, however, is visible to discerning eyes: a thoughtful, silent voter. The messaging from the BJP and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), backed by local yatras to rally caste groups, is meant to complement Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s focus on the Ladki Behna scheme, with four to five instalments already delivered. There’s also a stark contrast between the understated Sharad Pawar and the more vocal Congress, ever eager for the limelight.

This election has truly become a seat-by-seat battle. Broad state-wide or even regional trends won’t capture the intricacies. Each seat will tell its own story. And that is fascinating for the complexities involved, as listed above in detail.

In the bustle of electioneering, many factors will likely influence voters—some confusing, some promising, and some simply inexplicable. Maharashtra continues to attract the lion’s share of foreign direct investment (FDI), totalling 52.4% of the country’s FDI in the first quarter of the current financial year.

The state also has a robust pipeline of projects generating thousands of quality jobs. It hosts India’s auto hub, financial hub, entertainment hub, and a thriving startup ecosystem, which is second to none. Despite so much going right, Marathas—one of the dominant social groups in the state—are demanding quota for themselves. Why is that? Is a fractured polity with a surge of candidates and parties to voters’ liking?

Wise voters will weigh all these factors—and more—while casting their votes. The guessing game will continue. After all, we are in the midst of one of India’s most complex and unpredictable elections yet.

(Sanjay Pugalia is the CEO & Editor-in-Chief, AMG Media Network)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the authors

The Election Commission of India announced the voting dates for Maharashtra this afternoon. Voting in Maharashtra will take place on November 20 and votes will be counted three days later on November 23. Meanwhile, Jharkhand will vote in two phases on November 13 and 20. Counting for both states will take place on November 23. The Chief Election Commissioner said with elections, were are setting gold standards, referring to the ‘free and fair elections’ in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir.

In 2019, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), comprising a then unified Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), along with the Congress, had won 154 of 288 seats. This time, the Shiv Sena and NCP split into two factions. 

Meanwhile, in Jharkhand, Chief Minister Hemant Soren’s Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) is ready to lock horns with the BJP. In the 2019 elections, JMM won 30 seats and formed the government with the Congress, which has won 16 seats.

Here are the Live Updates on the big story:

Chief Election Commissioner Responds To Queries On EVMs
“Before 5-6 months of polls, checking begins. At every step of the EVM process, political parties or their agents are present. We put in a new battery and after sealing there are signatures of the agent. There’s 3-layer of security including CAPF and observers. The process is videographed. The EVM numbers are also shared. When polls are closed, even then we take signatures. How much more can we show? On counting day, it goes inside barricading. There’s a provision for objecting to any of this at any stage which did not happen,” Mr Rajiv Kumar said.

“It has a single-use battery which can be used for 5-7 days. It’s like a calculator battery. We have made a provision. It is initially marked as it’s 99 per cent and charged. It can differ based on the voltage difference. When it drops to 5.8%, it gives a signal,” he said.

“Matter Of Introspection For Media”: Chief Election Commissioner On Exit Polls

“Because of exit polls and expectations set by them a big distortion is being created. This is a matter of introspection. We need to consider the sample size, what was the result. If my result doesn’t match with the actual result, we need to think about it,” CEC Rajiv Kumar said.

“It creates an expectation which has no scientific basis. The leads shown at 8.05 and 8.10 are nonsense. The counting starts at 8.30. Is it to validate the exit polls? We reflect results at 9.30, 11.30 then 1.30. It takes some time to upload results because of all the processes. So, when the actual results come, there is a mismatch. The gap between expectation and reality is frustration,” he added.

Maharashtra, Jharkhand Assembly Elections: Full Schedule Of Polling In 2 States

Maharashtra to vote in single phase (288 seats)

Date of Poll: November 20 

Counting of Votes: November 23

Jharkhand – Polls in 2 phases (81 seats)

Date of poll: Nov 13, Nov 20

Counting of votes: November 23

Jharkhand Elections Date Live: Full Schedule

Election Dates Live: Schedule For Bye-Elections

Jharkhand Elections Date Live: Voting To Take Place In 2 Phases, Counting On November 23
Voting in Jharkhand will take place in two phases – November 13 and November 20. Counting will take place on November 23.

Maharashtra Assembly Elections: Full Schedule

Maharashtra Assembly Elections: Voting On November 20, Counting On November 23

Maharashtra

Start of Nomination: 22 October

Last date for Nomination: 29 October

Date of Poll: 20 November

Date of Counting: 23 November

Maharashtra Elections Date: Elections in Maharashtra To Be Held In Single Phase
Voting in Maharashtra will take place in a single phase, announces Election Commission of India.

Maharashtra, Jharkhand Election Dates Live: Over 12 Crore Electors Eligible To Vote
Over 12 crore electors are eligible to vote in Maharashtra and Jharkhand elections, Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar said.

Jharkhand Elections Date Live: Total Electors In The State

Jharkhand Elections Date Live: General Overview Of Polling Stations In The State

Maharashtra Elections Date Live: General Overview Of Electorates In Maharashtra

Elections Date Live: We Reviewed Situation In Maharashtra and Jharkhand

“We recently visited Maharashtra and Jharkhand and reviewed the situation there after several meetings with officials,” Mr Kumar said.

Elections Live: “Setting Gold Standards In Every Election,” Says Poll Body Chief
“Before starting the briefing, I would like to congratulate all voters from Haryana, Jammu and Kashmir for participating in big numbers. India is setting records in every election. We are setting a new gold standard…We declare are will and intent first and fulfill,” Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar said.

Maharashtra, Jharkhand Assembly Elections: Poll Body Briefing Begins
Election Commission presser begins. The poll body will be announcing the dates for Maharashtra and Jharkhand elections.

Maharashtra Assembly Elections: Congress Expels MLA After He Joins Ajit Pawar’s Faction

The Congress has expelled MLA Hiraman Khoskar from the party for six years for indulging in “anti-party activities” after he joined the Ajit Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).

He Khoskar, who represents the Igatpuri assembly constituency in Nashik district, joined the ruling NCP on Monday.

In a letter dated October 14, Maharashtra Congress president Nana Patole said the legislator was involved in “anti-party activities during the Lok Sabha polls and even after that”.

Maharashtra, Jharkhand Assembly Elections: Congress Appoints Observers For Polls
The Congress on Tuesday appointed division-wise AICC senior observers for the Maharashtra Assembly polls with Ashok Gehlot and G Parameshwara to look after the Mumbai and Konkan region and Sachin Pilot and Uttam Kumar Reddy to oversee the Marathwada region.

As the Congress gets battle-ready for the next round of assembly polls, the opposition party also appointed three AICC senior observers for Jharkhand assembly elections — Tariq Anwar, Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury and Bhatti Vikramarka Mallu.

Elections Date Live: Break-up Of Seats In 2019 Maharashtra Elections
Maharashtra has 288 seats, with a majority mark of 145. In 2019, the BJP emerged as the single-largest party with 105 seats but the undivided NCP, Shiv Sena and the Congress formed the government after winning 54, 56 and 44 seats respectively, forming the Maha Vikas Aghadi. Thirteen independent candidates won in the polls and one seat was won by a political party.

Elections Date Live: Break-up Of Seats In 2019 Jharkhand Elections

Jharkhand has 81 assembly seats with a majority mark of 41. The 2019 elections saw a close contest between the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and the BJP, with the former winning 30 and the latter securing 25 seats. The Congress emerged as the third-largest party with 16 seats.

The JVM (Jharkhand Vikas Morcha) got 3 seats, the AJSU (All Jharkhand Students Union) won 2 seats. Two independent candidates won in the 2019 elections along with three other parties winning one-one seat each.

Assembly Elections Live: Maharashtra, Jharkhand Elections Will Be The Last Set Of Polls In 2024

This year’s election will probably be the last prestige battle of 2024 with the fractured Shiv Sena and NCP battling the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance.

Sources in the BJP told NDTV the party will contest on 158 of the state’s 288 seats. It has offered 70 seats to Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and 50 to Ajit Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party.

The Congress, battered by the Haryana defeat, will face an upbeat BJP. Among the key figures to be watched out in the poll season in Maharashtra will be Maratha quota activist Manoj Jarange Patil, who has held a series of hunger strikes to demand reservation for the community.