Amidst the GST led momentum and quarterly earnings season, the focus on January Auto sales gets diverted, but automakers are expected to report a strong show. While GST rate cuts was a key trigger for buyers who have been on the sidelines for a while now, we now understand this is a structural change and dealer channel check suggest the same.
Brokerages also have put strong estimates for the month of January and suggest multiple winners this time around as well, a trend we have seen in the past couple of months as well. Among some key winners and gainers, Tata Motors, TVS, Ashok Leyland will be some you have to watch out for.
Two Wheelers: Affordability And Premiumization Trends Further Underpin Demand
Two wheeler demand especially for the entry level segment was on the sidelines pre GST Rate cuts led by cost increases over last few years. Growth trend has been quite strong in January with Hero being a key beneficiary. Trend seems structural and positive for the industry. Premiumization across category has been visible but not as stark as within two wheelers where beneficiaries have been across players.
TVS being the most diverisified player across motorcycles and scooters is expected to show a 26% year-on-year growth followed by Eicher Motors. According to brokerage firm Nuvama, exports would increase in double digits led by growth in Asia, Africa and Latin America, a trend benefitting Royal Enfield maker Eicher Motors, Bajaj and TVS.
PV: New Model Launches Take Centre Stage
After almost a year of no new model launches from end of 2024 till August 2025, carmakers have had their say in the last few months. Tata Sierra, Mahindra 9S & XUV 7XO, New Renault Duster, Hyundai Venue, Maruti Victoris have shown as bright as the Diwali lights and captured both buyer interest and healthy booking numbers.
Sierra push is expected to help Tata Motors outperform peers with 27% year on year growth, others are expected to show growth as well.
CV: Early Stages Of The Start Of An Upcycle
While there aren’t any signs of a upcycle starting already in truck sales, the numbers would show you otherwise, especially in the last quarter. While there hasn’t been a big capex push from the government which is a key indicator for increase in truck sales, monthly numbers seem to suggest GST benefit has helped truck sales as well, especially for Light Commercial Vehicles. This has helped stock prices of Ashok Leyland and Tata Motors Ltd, with 39% and 40% up respectively.
Once there is an indication and quarterly earnings conference calls will help with those, you could see the MHCV or Medium And Heavy Commercial Vehicles sales pick up meaningfully as well for truck makers. Expect a 20% growth for January across players.
Tractors: GST Cuts, Progress Tnto Rabi Season To Continue Growth Momentum
Tractor makers had their say in 2025 crossing the 1 million sale mark for the first time in a year and 2026 is expected to be a strong start yet again. Momentum is expected to continue with 15-20% YoY growth for Escorts and Mahindra.
Brokerage firm Nomura suggests that tractor demand sentiment continues to be strong, supported by GST cuts and demand will remain healthy for the rest of the year as we progress into the rabi season, supported by improved reservoir levels, and better farm cash flow.
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