It is the year of elections. India, which is in the middle of a six-week-long general elections, is the “only thing that looks stable”, says top US political scientist Ian Bremmer.
Over 60 countries are going to polls this year amid two raging wars, the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas war. The year began with Bangladesh polls, followed by Pakistan, then Russia and Maldives. US polls are later this year. The Indian election is spread over seven phases, its longest since the first general election of 1951-52.
“There’s an enormous amount of macro geopolitical uncertainty. The future of globalisation is not going the way the companies want it to go. Politics is inserting itself into the global marketplace. The wars are a big part of that. US China relations is a big part of it. US elections is a big part of that. And all four of those are not going well. None of them are being managed easily. And the pressures in all of these major issues are more negative. The only thing that looks stable and consistent politically is the India election. Everything else is problematic,” Mr Bremmer, the founder of the Eurasia Group, a risk and research consulting firm, told NDTV Profit.
Mr Bremmer maintains that Prime Minister Modi, 73, seeking re-election, will most likely be back in office for a third term with the same numbers as he did in 2019.
PM Modi’s party, the BJP, won 303 seats then. This time he aims to win 370 seats and with help from allies hopes to cross 400. There are 543 seats in the lower house.
“The Eurasia Group is pretty consistent with where Modi and the BJP landed the last time around. So it’s 305, plus or minus 10 seats,” says Mr Bremmer, adding his interest in not in numbers.
The assessment ties in with poll strategist Prashant Kishor’s prediction for BJP. The BJP tally may hover around its 2019 score of 303 or better than it, Mr Kishor told NDTV, underscoring that there is no widespread anger against the Prime Minister nor a clamour for change.
“For the past five months, I have been saying that no matter how you assess the elections, it seems Modi-led BJP is returning. They may get the same numbers as last election or do slightly better,” said Mr Kishor, who crafted Mr Modi’s 2014 campaign.
The election closes on June 1. Five phases are over, two more remain. The votes will be counted on June 4.
“India is the largest democracy that is going to the ballot. India is also one of the countries with the smoothest transition. There’s not a lot of uncertainty about the legitimacy of the system. It is seen to be free and fair and transparent. And Modi who has been in power now for two terms is almost certainly going to be in power for another term on the back of pretty strong economic performance and consistent reform. That is in the grand scheme of things, a very stabilising message,” says Mr Bremmer.
