The euphoria of June 4 has waned. Narendra Modi is no longer seen as ‘vulnerable’. Rahul Gandhi’s seemingly impeccable “strategy” is being questioned, albeit in murmurs. Though no one in Congress can dare to seek his downgrading, when you hear talk of the need for Sonia Gandhi to be active again, it signals disappointment with the present Rahul Gandhi-Mallikarjun Kharge-KC Venugopal-Jairam Ramesh leadership. Priyanka Vadra’s presence in rallies is much sought-after—she had minimal exposure in Haryana—but nobody can suggest that openly within the Congress.
Rahul Gandhi’s image as a possible counter to Modi has been dented after the Congress’s drubbing in Haryana. Also, given that the election saw the Congress facing the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) one-on-one, its dismal performance has now sown doubts among its allies in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, as well as in Delhi and Bihar.
Not New To Defeat
The Congress is not new to assembly election defeats. After the 17th general election in 2019, the party could form governments in only three states: Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka and Telangana. It played at best a supporting role as a junior coalition partner in Tamil Nadu and Jharkhand—a role that it will again reprise in Jammu & Kashmir now as a minor ally of the National Conference government. This is in sharp contrast to its status till 2005, when the Congress had ruled more than half the states in India.
The Congress’s resurgence in this year’s Lok Sabha elections, in which it managed to bag 99 seats, was seen by many as an end to its lasting misfortune since 2014, when it couldn’t muster even the minimum numbers to be recognised as the official Opposition party in the Lok Sabha. On the eve of Gandhi’s US trip in September, Sam Pitroda, the Indian Overseas Congress chief, had even gone as far as to say that Rahul was “more intellectual” than his father, Rajiv Gandhi, and a “better strategist” who had all the qualities to be a “future Prime Minister”. The turnaround this year naturally made Rahul and his aides buoyant; they thought the worst was finally over. But Haryana voters were to soon undo this excitement. Just a month later, on October 8, the Grand Old Party was at pains to figure out how it managed to let slip an almost certain victory.
Resistant To Dissent
A WhatsApp message circulating in some Congress circles sums up the party’s position: “A fact is information minus emotion. An opinion is information plus experience. Ignorance is an opinion lacking information. And stupidity is an opinion that ignores fact”. The loudest protest in most such party circles today is but just a murmur. Since the days of Indira Gandhi, dissent in the Congress has been muffled. Gandhi got rid of her critics in 1969 and 1978 by splitting the party. Both these splits followed Congress reversals in 1967 and 1977, respectively. Today, bereft of stalwarts who could provide an alternative trajectory, the Congress seems to have again stagnated over the past decade.
The EVM Complaints
The principal opposition party has time and again voiced its reservations about Electronic Voting Machines (EVM), when, ironically, the system came into being during its own rule in the 1980s. Pointing fingers at the fairness of the electoral process in India, Pitroda said earlier this year that EVMs were violable and that the Election Commission of India was biased towards the ruling BJP. When asked about how his party won in Karnataka, Himachal Pradesh and Telangana, he seemed to suggest that they were mere flukes, while the ‘demon’ of ‘rigging’ was a distinct possibility. Rahul Gandhi echoed his views while addressing the National Press Club in Washington DC in September, where he underscored the ‘threat’ to democracy and the Constitution. Supreme Court has dismissed all petitions against EVMs, but the Congress party’s doubts persist.
This time, too, the Congress’s first reaction to the defeat in Haryana was that the result was “against reality”. The party went to the Election Commission on October 10 and, as expected, alleged malpractice. The review meeting at the residence of Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge was held only after the party delegation returned from Nirvachan Sadan. Neither Bhupinder Hooda, Deepender Hooda, nor Selja Kumari—its three Haryana stalwarts—were invited to the meeting. The reason for their exclusion was purportedly Rahul Gandhi’s frustration.
The absurdity of the Congress’s persistent complaints about the EVM system can be understood through simple data. In the latest Lok Sabha election, the BJP’s seat tally plummeted by 63 and its vote share dropped by 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, the Congress gained 47 seats and its vote share rose by 1.7 percentage points. If indeed the Election Commission was being biased and EVMs being manipulated, only a blunderous system could’ve produced such results.
In Haryana, the Congress’s vote share went up from 28% in 2019 to 39% this year—a rise of 11 percentage points—while the BJP’s vote share rose by 3 percentage points, the same jump as in 2019. The Congress lost one seat by a mere 32 votes. The BJP’s data-based narrative trumped Rahul’s litany of complaints, which seemed to lack teeth.
Forever Leaning On Allies?
Addressing BJP workers on October 8, Modi described the Congress as a ‘parjeevi‘, or a ‘parasite’, dependent on the largesse of its regional allies. In poll-bound Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Delhi and Bihar, the Grand Old Party will again likely be leaning on this largesse. Haryana was the last opportunity where it could have proven its mettle in a one-on-one battle against the BJP. Having failed, it has now tasked a fact-finding committee to find a scapegoat for absolving the Rahul-Kharge-Venugopal-Ramesh quartet of their inability to assess the ground reality.
(Shubhabrata Bhattacharya is a retired editor and a public affairs commentator)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
