Berlin:
Germany is set to hold the crucial federal election on Sunday (February 23) to elect its next chancellor. The snap polls were called by chancellor Olaf Scholz when his coalition government fell apart at the end of last year, the results of which will shape the future of Europe’s most influential nation and the European Union.
In the race for top leader is an incumbent chancellor seeking a second term, the opposition leader, the current vice chancellor and — for the first time — a popular leader of a far-right party. The elections are receiving an unusual level of interest from onlookers outside the country, including the world’s richest man Elon Musk, who caused an outcry in Germany by throwing his weight behind the far-right Alternative Alice Weidel.
A Look At Top Contenders
Olaf Scholz: The 66-year-old centre-left Social Democrat has been Germany’s chancellor since December 2021. Seeking a second term, Scholz has a wealth of government experience, having previously served as Hamburg’s mayor and as German labour and finance minister.
As chancellor, Scholz launched an effort to modernize Germany’s military after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and made Germany Ukraine’s second-biggest weapons supplier. His government prevented an energy crunch and tried to counter high inflation. But his three-party coalition became notorious for infighting and collapsed in November as it argued over how to revitalize the economy — Europe’s biggest, which has shrunk for the past two years.
Friedrich Merz: Germany’s 69-year-old opposition leader has emerged as the front-runner in the election campaign, with his centre-right Union bloc leading polls. Merz became the leader of his Christian Democratic Union party after longtime Chancellor Angela Merkel — a former rival — stepped down in 2021. Since then, he has taken the party in a more conservative direction.
During the election campaign, Merz has made curbing irregular migration a central issue. However, he lacks experience in government. He joined the European Parliament in 1989 before becoming a lawmaker in Germany five years later. He took a break from active politics for several years after 2009, practising as a lawyer and heading the supervisory board of investment manager BlackRock’s German branch.
Robert Habeck: The 55-year-old Habeck is the candidate of the environmentalist Greens. He’s also Germany’s current vice chancellor and the economy and climate minister, with responsibility for energy issues. As co-leader of the Greens from 2018 to 2022, he presided over a rise in the party’s popularity, but in 2021 he stepped aside to let Annalena Baerbock — now Germany’s foreign minister — make the party’s first run for the chancellor’s job.
Habeck’s record as a minister has drawn mixed reviews, particularly a plan his ministry drew up to replace fossil-fuel heating systems with greener alternatives that deepened divisions in the government.
Alice Weidel: The 46-year-old Weidel is making the first bid of the far-right, anti-immigration Alternative for Germany, or AfD, for the country’s top job. An economist by training, Weidel joined the party shortly after it was founded in 2013. She has been co-leader of her party’s parliamentary group since the party first won seats in the national legislature in 2017.
Weidel has been a co-leader of the party itself since 2022, along with Tino Chrupalla. In December, she was nominated as the candidate for chancellor — though other parties say they won’t work with the AfD, so she has no realistic path to the top job at present.
When Will The Results Come?
It is likely to take several days after February 23 to confirm the final results of the election. However, based on the exit polls, fairly reliable results are likely to be out by Sunday evening, but there may still be some uncertainty as the counting of votes by post (a trend which is on the rise) takes time. The performance of smaller parties will also factor in result timing as Germany has a norm of electing a coalition government.
Even after the full results are out, forming a new government will, most likely, take some time as talks between parties on coalition will start only after the results. The coalition might take several months to put a government together. It depends on the numbers at play and the political arithmetic – essentially the extent to which different combinations of parties agree or disagree on various policy positions.
Why Germany Forms Coalition Governments?
The proportional voting system and increased political fracturing in Germany make it extremely difficult for any one party to form a government alone and a coalition needs to be formed comprising parties that together hold more than 50 per cent of the seats in the Bundestag — the national parliament.
It is also partly political culture in Germany to prefer stable majorities as minority governments are considered to be too weak and unstable.
Until the early 1980s, there were usually three parties (conservative, social democrats and liberals) in Parliament. However, currently, the country has seven parties in the Bundestag.
Parties In Fray
Germany has two centrist, “big-tent” parties: Scholz’s centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the opposition conservatives, an alliance of the Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU).
Both have lost support in recent years, with smaller parties such as the Greens and far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) gaining ground.
The SPD, conservatives, Greens and AfD are all fielding candidates for chancellor.
Also running are the pro-market Free Democrats (FDP), the far-left Linke and the leftist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), who are all at risk of missing the 5 per cent threshold to make it into parliament, according to opinion polls.
Polls
The conservatives have been leading nationwide polls for more than two years and are at 30 per cent, according to the latest survey published by Forsa Institute on February 16, followed by the AfD at 20 per cent.
Scholz’s SPD, with 16 per cent, has dropped to third from the first place it achieved in the 2021 election. It is followed by the Greens on 13 per cent and Linke on 7 per cent. The FDP is polling at 5 per cent, with the BSW at 4 per cent, according to the latest poll.
Analysts say polls can shift quickly as voters are less loyal to parties than they once were. In the 2021 election campaign, the conservatives went from frontrunner to runner-up within a few months.
