France is without a government or an annual budget. Germany, the supposed anchor of European stability, is being run by a caretaker administration. Poland, meanwhile, has temporarily suspended the right to asylum, a cornerstone of European values, in a “bold new migration strategy” that looks more like a move that undermines the European Union ideals. Russia is firmly in the driver’s seat in the Ukraine war. And as if that wasn’t enough, the EU is staring down the barrel of a new American presidency—one that promises to hike import tariffs and bully Europe’s NATO allies into coughing up more cash.
These aren’t just random hiccups. France, Germany and Poland—the EU’s big boys—are all in turmoil. Indeed when the pillars of a structure start to crack, how long can the roof hold up?
A Union In Crisis
The European Union, built on the lofty ideals of democracy, human rights and freedom of speech, now finds itself teetering on the edge of an existential crisis. The irony is as rich as it is tragic: a union founded on unity is fracturing under the weight of its contradictions.
Let’s start with the obvious. Britain exited the Union, but it’s not alone. In France, Marine Le Pen lurks menacingly in the political shadows, her far-right populism offering voters a seductive, anti-EU narrative. In Italy, Matteo Salvini champions a similar brand of nationalist fervour, while in Germany, the far-right AfD party is no longer a fringe player but a rising force to be reckoned with. The EU isn’t just rotting from outside—it is under siege from within.
When Europhiles Play The Populist Card
Poland’s Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, is a known Europhile. But it was shocking for many in the EU that he suspended the right to asylum in his country, putting aside the bloc’s own principles. Tusk was a man who spent years championing European values, and now he undermines one of their cornerstones, all to save his own skin. Cynically, he justified his decision by saying that Russia and Belarus were diverting asylum seekers to his country and other EU member countries, a charge still unproven. But his critics point out that his real worries are a lot closer to home. His pro-EU Civic Platform coalition may have scraped through Poland’s parliamentary elections last year, but it’s been floundering ever since. Polls now show Tusk’s party neck and neck with the Eurosceptic Law and Justice Party (PiS).
Tusk is not alone. Struggling Europhile leaders across the continent are suddenly discovering the political utility of “securing national borders”. Take, for example, Olaf Scholz, Germany’s embattled chancellor. His popularity is sinking fast. Recently, Scholz imposed border controls across all of Germany’s land borders, citing an Islamist terror attack in Solingen as the trigger. But let’s call it what it is: a calculated move for the February election to placate voters fed up with migration and to fend off rising populist parties like the AfD.
Double Standards
Then there is Brussels itself—the hallowed guardian of European unity, democracy and human rights. It has made a remarkable U-turn on migration. Recently, after one of its signature closed-door meetings, the European Commission threw its weight behind Tusk. In a statement backed by all 27 member states, Brussels claimed that Russia and Belarus are “abusing our values” and “undermining our democracies”. It justified its stance by saying that “exceptional situations require appropriate measures”.
Apparently, the EU has decided that border controls are acceptable so long as the justification is wrapped in anti-Russian rhetoric and presented by the right kind of leader. To understand the EU’s hypocrisy, let’s remind ourselves what it did to Viktor Orbán’s Hungary—Orbán being a ‘bad boy’ of Europe for supporting Russia. Recently, the EU’s top court fined Hungary €200m for failing to follow the union’s asylum policies. The court will also issue a penalty of €1m a day until it changes its policy. The European Court of Justice said Budapest was in breach of a 2020 judgement and had violated EU laws by forcing asylum seekers to travel to Belgrade or Kyiv to apply for a travel permit for entering Hungary.
These double standards are impossible to ignore. When Poland’s PiS government previously clamped down on migration, Brussels was quick to condemn it as a betrayal of European values. But now that Tusk is doing the same, suddenly, the EU is all right with it.
France Faces People’s Mistrust
President Macron and France’s so-called political class are facing a sea of public mistrust. A recent Le Monde survey paints a grim picture: only 22% of French people trust their MPs—a seven-point drop in just a year. Voters are sick of the endless political bickering. And who can blame them? With faith in the system evaporating, the odds that fresh parliamentary elections next summer will magically deliver a stable majority seem very slim.
The timing couldn’t be worse. The war in Ukraine is at a potential turning point, and across the Atlantic, a new Trump administration looms, itching to kickstart a trade war that could send shockwaves through Europe’s fragile economy. For now, Macron still holds the reins—at least on paper. But he has to convince France’s allies that the nation isn’t about to unravel completely. With domestic gridlock and global crises closing in, it’s up to him to prove that France can still play ball on the world stage. The question is: does anyone still believe he can pull it off?
Ukraine Obsession: A Crisis Of Priorities
The European Union is pouring billions into Ukraine—defence aid, financial packages, reconstruction pledges—all in the name of standing up to Russian aggression. But its own citizens are buckling under the weight of spiralling costs. Energy bills are sky-high, inflation continues to bite and wages remain stagnant. Let’s be blunt, I live and travel in the heart of Europe and I feel it: the EU’s relentless commitment to Ukraine isn’t just draining its coffers, it’s bleeding its people dry.
The Biden administration, ever the puppet master, has pulled the EU deep into the Ukrainian quagmire. Washington’s playbook is clear: keep Europe committed to Ukraine as a frontline bulwark against Russia. But what has Europe gained? Endless sanctions that hurt its own economies more than Moscow’s, and a cold winter of discontent driven by an overreliance on expensive LNG imports from across the Atlantic. Meanwhile, Russia, as I have said in my previous columns, though battered, is far from broken. Its economy is adapting and its territorial grip in eastern Ukraine remains firm.
An Awkward Dance With Trump And Musk
Europe’s love affair with the American tech and political elite has soured spectacularly. Donald Trump’s triumphant return and his bromance with Elon Musk may spell trouble for the EU’s ambitious tech crackdown.
Let’s talk about X, Musk’s digital playground, and its showdown with the EU’s Digital Services Act (DSA). This isn’t just another slap-on-the-wrist regulation. Passed in 2022, the DSA packs a punch, demanding platforms remove illegal content or face fines of up to 6% of their annual revenue. Musk’s X is on the radar of the EU regulators, who have alleged multiple violations of the DSA rules. Now, they’re mulling their next move—fine X, slap Musk with penalties, or go after both. But that was before Trump was in play. Now that he is, the EU’s tech crusade is about to get a lot messier.
Digital Dinosaur In A World Of Tech Titans
One of the EU’s biggest problems is that it’s not disintegrating—it’s badly stagnating. Former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi sounded the alarm in September. In his much-anticipated 328-page report, Draghi pulled no punches: “This is an existential challenge,” he said. Europe needs to raise its annual investment by a staggering €800 billion to keep pace with the US and China, with much of that going to tech. Without it, the continent risks being left in the dust.
Seattle-based, Indian-origin tech expert S. Aamir Aarfi says that Europe needs to act fast, as it currently lags behind all the top players. Says he, “Silicon Valley churns out innovation at warp speed, China dominates AI and 5G, and even India is emerging as a tech powerhouse. Unfortunately, Europe clings to regulations and bureaucracy, dangerously close to stagnation and irrelevance.”
“Consider the cold, hard facts,” says Aarfi, “the US dominates Big Tech and is home to giants like Apple, Google and Microsoft. China has its state-backed juggernauts—Tencent, Alibaba, and Huawei. But Europe? It boasts only the SAP”. Draghi notes that a mere four of the world’s top 50 tech companies are European. He doesn’t mince words: “Europe largely missed out on the digital revolution led by the internet and the productivity gains it brought.”
The EU appears to be spending more time regulating than innovating. Its flagship Digital Services and Markets Acts are more about policing foreign tech than fostering local growth. Meanwhile, European startups struggle to scale, stifled by red tape and a lack of venture capital. Europe dithers over ethics, while its brightest minds head to Silicon Valley or Shenzhen.
Draghi’s diagnosis is clear: Europe isn’t just falling behind—it’s failing to show up. If it doesn’t act boldly and invest massively, it risks becoming a digital backwater, sidelined in the industries defining the future. As Aarfi says, “Europe needs a tech revolution and it needs it now.”
The greatest threat to the EU doesn’t come from Moscow or Beijing but from within. Populist and nationalist movements are on the rise, fuelled by a toxic blend of economic anxiety, cultural insecurity, and distrust of Brussels. Stuck in a web of noble intentions but shoddy execution, the EU risks becoming irrelevant—not through dramatic collapse, but through a slow, self-inflicted decline.
(Syed Zubair Ahmed is a London-based senior Indian journalist with three decades of experience with the Western media)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
