The Pakistan government has slightly revised the gross domestic product (GDP) growth down to 3.65% for the outgoing financial year (FY26), attributing the adjustment to a mild slowdown in the industrial and services sectors, according to a media report on Tuesday (October 20, 2026).
The country’s GDP registered modest growth alongside an increase in per capita income in dollar terms, reflecting a sluggish pace of recovery in the country’s overall output compared with the previous year, the government said.
In May 2026, the government had projected the economy to grow by 3.70% in FY26, revising its earlier estimate of 4%. The downward adjustment now indicates that the country fell short of its GDP target, a Dawn report showed.
The revised growth rates in agriculture, industry and services in FY26 are 3.50%, 3.34% and 3.81%, respectively, compared with earlier growth rates of 2.89%, 3.51% and 4.09%.
The revision came during the 118th meeting of the National Accounts Committee (NAC), held on Monday (October 19, 2026) at the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.
The NAC estimate places Pakistan broadly in line with the outlook of multilateral lenders, though with some variation. The International Monetary Fund has projected GDP growth at 3.6% for FY26, the World Bank at 3.7% and the Asian Development Bank at 3.7%, while the State Bank of Pakistan expects growth to remain close to 3.7%.
The committee approved incorporating revised import data into the national accounts estimates from FY21 to FY25, quarterly GDP growth rates for the first, second, third (all revised) and fourth quarters of FY26, and updated annual growth rates for FY25 and FY26.
The size of the economy rose to $450.4 billion in FY26 from $410.96 billion in FY25, mainly driven by growth in the services sector, followed by industry and livestock.
Per capita income slightly increased to $1,896 in FY26, the lowest in the region, up from $1,824 in FY25. The projection is based on the 2023 census; however, it was $1,551 in FY23, $1,766 in FY22 and $1,677 in FY21.
This suggests a deterioration in the standard of living and well-being across almost all segments of society, with no tangible increase in personal incomes due to unprecedented inflationary pressures, which reduce disposable income and limit individuals’ ability to afford goods and services, save or invest.
The NAC also approved the updated growth rates for the first, second and third quarters of FY26 at 3.89%, 4.31% and 4.42%, respectively, compared with 3.92%, 4.05% and 3.99% presented at the 117th meeting of the NAC. The fourth quarter of FY26 recorded 2% growth in GDP.
The committee approved the updated annual growth of 3.11% for FY25, which was estimated at 3.18% in the previous meeting.
The committee revised growth in industry during FY26 to 3.34% from 3.51% estimated previously. The mining and quarrying industry improved from 0.38% to 1.52%, due to improvement in gas (2.84%), crude oil (5.12%) and coal (2.73%).
Large-scale manufacturing (LSM), measured through the Quantum Index of Manufacturing (QIM), declined from 6.11% to 5.01%.
The services industry declined from 4.09% to 3.81% in FY26, with positive contributions from all its constituents. Growth in wholesale and retail trade was 2.37%, against the previous growth of 3.71%, due to a decrease in manufacturing and imports.
Transport and storage industry growth improved to 3.23% from 2.31%, due to upward revisions reported in railways, water transport and air transport. Similarly, information and communication growth increased from 7.52% to 9.53%, and finance and insurance also improved, from 0.32% to 4.23%, in FY26, due to improvement in the insurance industry.
The slowdown was also reported in public administration and social security, to 5.67% from 8.54%; education, 4.17% from 5.23%; and human health and social work, 5.52% from 6.85%, according to the Dawn report.
Published – October 20, 2026 12:39 pm IST
