Stability at the top: On the tennis and the U.S. Open

In recent times, men’s tennis has had a heavy dose of predictability while the women’s game has been in a state of perpetual flux. If Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner cornered 11 of the 13 Majors starting Wimbledon 2023, there were nine different winners among women in the same period. But at the recently concluded U.S. Open, this pattern flipped. Alexander Zverev won his second men’s singles Slam trophy and first at Flushing Meadows after finishing atop an airy field that lost Sinner before the tournament and Alcaraz in the quarterfinal. In the ladies category, Elena Rybakina secured her third Major — also her first in New York — after beating top seed and two-time defending champion Aryna Sabalenka, and No. 4 and 2023 U.S. Open winner Coco Gauff, back to back. Among the last four of Zverev, Ben Shelton, Frances Tiafoe and Karen Khachanov, the tall German was the only one with Slam-winning experience, having grabbed his maiden top prize at the 2026 French Open, a similarly open competition where Alcaraz was missing and Sinner exited early. On the other hand, the WTA top-four reached the semifinals, and it was only fitting that Rybakina’s splendid run ended with her being crowned the new World No. 1, ending Sabalenka’s reign of 99 straight weeks at the pinnacle.

The absence of a strong field, however, should not diminish Zverev’s accomplishment. While it is true that the 29-year-old faced just one top-10 opponent — Shelton in the final on Sunday — across his two triumphs at Roland-Garros and the U.S. Open, he is indisputably among the three best players in the world along with Alcaraz and Sinner. Sandwiched between his two title successes was a Wimbledon final appearance, where he fought Sinner tooth and nail. In fact, Zverev’s ascent reinforces the idea of a new Big Three in men’s tennis, and has neatly coincided with 24-time Major winner Novak Djokovic losing in the first round and tumbling out of the ATP top 10. For the first time since the early 2000s, none of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Djokovic — the previous era’s Big Three — is ranked in the top 10, and the setback leaves the 39-year-old Serbian great facing an existential threat. Sabalenka, despite being a worthy runner-up to Rybakina, would have also left the U.S. with more questions than answers. The 28-year-old Belarusian has lost four of her last five Slam finals, and all of them as World No. 1, calling into question her big-match temperament. Worryingly, she only has a 50% success rate in all finals while being the top-ranked woman (7-7), an anomaly that requires a quick correction.