Do not gamble: On the Russia-Ukraine conflict

With Russia and Ukraine escalating their long-range attacks on each other’s territory, the risk of the conflict spilling over into other parts of Europe is rising. There have been isolated but significant incidents suggesting that Russia is carrying out ‘gray zone’ attacks, testing the resolve of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). Three explosive drones were discovered near a German airport. One was shot down over Romania, while another Russian projectile landed in Poland. European officials also say that Russia is recruiting foreign agents for sabotage and conducting cyberattacks for digital espionage. According to U.S. media reports, U.S. intelligence agencies believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin, under pressure at home amid Ukraine’s growing long-range attacks, could carry out a cyberattack or a limited land incursion into NATO territory in the years ahead. CIA chief John Ratcliffe visited Moscow in a bid to warn the Kremlin against escalating the war into NATO member-states. Inside Russia, government officials and nationalist voices have hardened their rhetoric. A Foreign Ministry spokesperson recently said British military facilities “located both inside Ukraine and beyond its borders” may become legitimate targets if Ukraine continues to attack Russia with British weapons. Mikhail Galuzin, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister, recently threatened to topple the regime in Kyiv and establish a new governance body — all suggesting that Russia could be preparing to escalate the war.

Russia still has no clear path to victory. Yes, Russia has taken more than 20% of Ukraine’s pre-2014 territory. But its incremental territorial gains have slowed. Until early this year, the Russians were using artillery, glide bombs, drones and infantry to blast through Ukraine’s deeply entrenched positions. But with its long-range attacks, particularly on Russia’s energy sector, supply networks, and military systems, Ukraine’s new aerial front is inflicting economic pain on the Russians. According to some reports, Ukrainian attacks have knocked out roughly 20% of Russia’s refining capacity. Russia is also striking Ukraine — its air defences are weak — with drones and ballistic missiles. But with continuing support from Europe, Kyiv has managed to withstand Russia’s hits. But this stalemate is dangerous. Under pressure at home and stuck on the frontline, Russia could use U.S. preoccupation in the Persian Gulf to escalate the conflict and break the impasse. But that would be a huge mistake, as it could trigger an all-out war between two nuclear-armed sides. Escalation would only compound Russia’s problems. Mr. Putin should instead opt for serious diplomatic engagement with Ukraine and the West, to find a middle ground and end Europe’s longest war since the Second World War.