​Limits of America: On the U.S.-Iran agreement

Israel and the U.S. launched their war on Iran on February 28 to bring about regime change in Tehran, destroy its nuclear and missile capabilities and end its support for non-state actors such as Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis. More than 100 days later, on June 15, the U.S. reached a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Iran to end fighting, lift the blockades in the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman — disruptions that did not exist before the war — and pave the way for more substantive talks on the nuclear question, while Israel, frustrated and isolated, is watching from the sidelines. That U.S. President Donald Trump pushed ahead despite Israeli objection underscores how dramatically the region’s strategic landscape has shifted. Left with few viable military options to make Iran submit to America’s maximalist demands, or to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Mr. Trump ultimately turned to a phased diplomatic approach: a preliminary agreement now, followed by negotiations on a final deal. Iranian officials say the arrangement would include the release of some frozen assets and reparations for Tehran as part of a broader regional ceasefire agreement. Core issues such as Iran’s nuclear programme and western sanctions would be discussed next.

The MoU is only the first step on a long and difficult road to peace and stability. Mr. Trump’s immediate challenge is to prevent a fresh outbreak of hostilities between the U.S. and Iran, or Israel and Iran, while nuclear negotiations remain under way. His biggest strategic mistake was his belief, shared by Israel, that there was a military solution to the Iranian nuclear issue. Washington underestimated Iran’s resolve, strategic depth and geographical advantages. As Henry Kissinger put it, “the guerrilla wins if he does not lose”. Iran won this war by not losing while the U.S., the most powerful country, lost it by failing to achieve its goals. With the nuclear talks set to resume, Mr. Trump finds himself in a weaker position today than the one Barack Obama occupied when he held talks with Iran in 2013-15. Nevertheless, the prospects for a negotiated outcome are still real as Iran urgently needs long-term economic relief. One potential disruptor, however, could be Israel, which has said it would not withdraw from occupied Southern Lebanon. Iran and the U.S. should rein in their respective allies, Hezbollah and Israel; Tehran should also take measures to instil confidence in the process. It has already demonstrated its deterrence by taking control of the Strait of Hormuz. It must now reopen the waterway in exchange for the U.S. removing its blockade. Iran and the U.S. should remain focused on diplomacy, resist potential Israeli efforts to sabotage the process, and work towards restoring stability in West Asia.