Cuban President outlines ‘three scenarios’ U.S. may take

Cuba’s President said in an interview published Monday (May 9, 2026) that the United States was considering three possible scenarios for its pressure campaign against the communist-led island: fomenting social unrest, assuming control of the economy or launching a military campaign.

The remarks by Miguel Diaz-Canel to Spanish digital news outlet elDiario.es come as his country faces an escalating economic crisis under U.S. President Donald Trump’s campaign, which include a fuel blockade and ramping up of sanctions.

“They are betting on three scenarios,” Mr. Diaz-Canel said. “One scenario is through economic strangulation to provoke social unrest, and for that social unrest to then give them the chance, under the pretext of humanitarian aid, to intervene,” he said.

The second is to “continue a coercive dialogue with Cuba, using maximum pressure, to seize the Cuban economy, to occupy the country economically, and for that to then give them the possibility of provoking a change in the political system, which is the ultimate goal of the United States,” he said.

The United States has pressured several foreign businesses in recent weeks to halt their activities in Cuba by threatening sanctions against anyone doing deals with state-run enterprises.

It also targeted Mr. Diaz-Canel and his family with new sanctions, as well as members of the Castro family. “A third scenario is that of military aggression,” Mr. Diaz-Canel added, emphasising that all three possibilities had been mentioned by Mr. Trump and “are constantly in what the U.S. Secretary of State says,” in reference to Marco Rubio, himself a Cuban-American.

In the face of possible military action, Mr. Diaz-Canel defended Cuba’s right to prepare to defend itself, in such a way that there is no surprise” nor “defeat.”