Gold, silver listless – The Hindu

Precious metals prices were confined to a narrow range in April, influenced more by the developments surrounding the Middle East geopolitical conflict. The ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. sparked positive sentiment towards gold but the yellow metal cooled off in the last couple of weeks.

Comex gold closed a tad lower at $4,636 by April end, a fall of 1.35%. Echoing the price behaviour of gold, Comex silver, too, closed a bit lower in April, sliding 1.5% to $74.23/ ounce.

The performance of the precious metals in the domestic market was a little better owing to the weakening of the rupee against the U.S. Dollar.

Marginal gain

MCX Gold rose 0.26% in April to settle at ₹1,51,225/10-gram. MCX Silver closed 0.75% lower to ₹2,44,638/kg.

Comex gold price stays stuck in the $4,400-$5,650 zone mentioned in the prior months. There are no signs yet of a breakout from this range. In the near term, the price has to rise above $5,050 to suggest the possibility of a meaningful upside move thereafter.

Until then, expect volatile,range- bound price action within the $4,400-4,950 zone. While the long-term trend for Comex gold remains positive, the price has to move above $5,260 for any significant upside move.

Comex silver price too was range-bound and devoid of any meaningful trend. The short-term outlook for silver does not appear too positive. A cool off to $65-$66 appears likely. On the upside, there is resistance at $81-83 zone. As long as the price stays below $83, a drop to $65-$66 is most likely. The long-term uptrend in silver would resume only a breakout above $85.

In the domestic market too, the price action in gold was listless with the price being confined to the ₹1,45,000-₹1,75,000 range.

Only a breakout from this range would trigger the next big directional move in gold. In the near-term, there is a possibility of a rise to ₹1,53,000-₹1,55,000, a price is likely to drift lower thereafter to ₹1,40,000-₹1,43,000.

A move above ₹1,58,000 would suggest the possibility of a spike to ₹1,65,000-₹1,68,000.

Mimicking the trend in the global markets, MCX silver too was range-bound in April.

The price is may be confined to ₹2,26,000-₹2,61,000 range in the near term. Expect a meaningful trend to emerge in the direction of the breakout once the price gets off this short-term trading range. Until the breakout happens, volatile back and forth action within this range is the most likely.

Conclusion

To summarise, precious metals are likely to stay range bound in the near term. The long-term trend however stays strong for gold and silver.

(The author is a Chennai based analyst / trader. The views and opinion featured in this column is based on the analysis of short-term price movement in gold and silver futures at COMEX & Multi Commodity Exchange of India. This is not meant to be a trading or investment advice.)