Nepal’s political shift opens a strategic window for India

The election results in Nepal have been described as a political earthquake. This is not an exaggeration. There has been an emphatic and comprehensive rejection of old leaders and established parties that have dominated the political scene for decades. A younger generation of professionals and tech savvy figures, enjoying the support of Gen Z activists who took to the streets last September and toppled the Oli Government is set to take over.

Challenges ahead

By giving the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) a two thirds majority, Nepali voters have granted Balendra Shah (former Kathmandu Mayor popularly known as Balen) and his government, a powerful mandate for Nepal’s complete transformation. It now has a huge responsibility to answer wide-ranging expectations–-enough jobs for the youth, reversing the migration of millions desperately looking for work abroad, stimulate rapid inclusive economic growth, end nepotism and corruption, and ensure good governance. It needs to be noted, however, that while voters have demonstrated their impatience with the old order and its decades- old insensitivity to their aspirations, this is not a positive vote for a clear-cut new agenda for reform, political or economic, since it was never spelt out and placed before them.

As an American author had wryly observed “everyone wants revolution, but no one wants to do the dishes”. In other words the agitation and even the election, earthshaking though the result was, has been the easy part. The really difficult bit will begin now.

There is a real possibility of frustration and disillusionment that the new government will have to deal with as it settles down. The first warning shots were fired by the caretaker Prime Minister Sushila Karki even before the election, when she reminded the political class that the violent agitations of September 2025 had erupted because of the frustrations of people insisting on good governance, and a recurrence of mob fury on the streets was inevitable if the situation lapsed into the same old pattern, as it had when expectations of a ‘New Nepal’ were dashed to the ground within years of the Maoists joining the democratic mainstream, integrating with the Nepal Army, abolition of the monarchy and adoption of a new Constitution, making Nepal a secular federal democratic republic. It would be a tragedy indeed if even after such an election throwing up a stable people-centric development oriented government, the opportunity for improving the lot of Nepal’s people is squandered away.

Hopefully the people of Nepal will show the same maturity they have displayed in voting for change, by will give the new leaders enough time to address the many country’s problemschallenges facing the country.

Restructuring India-Nepal ties

For now, Nepal deserves every encouragement possible. India has been quick to extend it, without being loud or patronising. India has not been an issue during the election campaign. Its relationship with Nepal in recent years has focused on the right priorities — development, infrastructure, digital connectivity, energy. It has played its cards well and can continue to capitalise on the existing goodwill as the new leaders in Nepal seek to respond to development needs of the people.

Restructuring of the India-Nepal relationship has been long overdue. For far too long it has been trapped in the shadows of the legacy of British India days. Hopefully India and Nepal will seize every opportunity to fashion a forward- looking relationship based on today’s realities and popular aspirations and the immense potential for expanding cooperation. For this it will be necessary for policy makers on both sides to discard old mindsets, address long standing irritants with fresh approaches, and prioritise people-centric policies which can be delivered to keep pace with people’s expectations and needs.

India also needs to look at the recent developments in Nepal as part of a wider regional phenomenon since happenings in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and elsewhere also fall into the same pattern—agitations led by frustrated youth incidentally toppling pro-India political figures, demanding faster development and better governance. Labeling new political leaders being thrown up everywhere as anti-India just because of the legacies of the past does not seems no longer to be justified, as seen from the pragmatic readiness shown in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka to cooperate with India, by parties and leaders once seen as unfriendly. At a geopolitical level, Pakistan and China will continue to be strategic concerns for the foreseeable future. China is politically on the back foot with its decades-long strategies of uniting the Communist parties in tatters after their recent election debacle .Even on the economic front, China’s appeal is somewhat diminished after a series of corruption scandals involving Chinese firms and Nepalese entities. Nepal’s new leaders will assert their right to sovereign space and seek close economic relations with China where there is advantage, but India needs to shed its traditional resistance to this for it no longer seems to have much strategic connotation. As for America, its intentions remain something of a question mark. Trump’s emphasis on curbing aid programmes, his war in the Gulf which will exacerbate Nepal’s economic difficulties, his peculiar treatment of India would have an impact on any enthusiasm for allowing the US much space in Nepal for its great games.

Nepal could be a good partner for India in the evolving geopolitical scenario, if both countries try seriously to fashion a clear cut sub- regional strategy for rapid growth which will make up for lost decades because SAARC has been in ICU. A meaningful repurposing of their bilateral ties is the need of the hour and the post-election opportunity in Nepal needs to be seized.

(K.V. Rajan is former Indian Ambassador to Nepal and Atul K. Thakur is a policy professional. They are the authors of ‘Kathmandu Chronicle: Reclaiming India-Nepal Relations’. Views are personal.)