Are Indian firms intent on moving to Venezuelan oil? | Explained

The story so far: Indian refiners have not been particularly enthused with the prospect of Venezuelan oil flowing into the global market following the U.S’ capture of Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro. Whilst announcing the trade agreement with India, U.S. President Donald Trump unilaterally mentioned that New Delhi had agreed to buy more crude from the U.S., potentially Venezuelan oil. However, the joint statement makes no such mention.

What are the concerns?

S. Bharathan, Director for Refiners at Hindustan Petroleum said that Venezuelan crude other than being bottom-heavy, also has high viscosity and a high acid number. Sanjay Khanna, Chairman and Managing Director of Bharat Petroleum too had indicated that Venezuelan crude contains high metal and nitrogen content. He further stated that the crude would have to be co-blended with other lighter crude to the extent of 10-15% and then processed. For perspective, higher viscosity indicates a potential resistance to flow while a higher acid number indicates a higher chemical mix existing naturally in the oil.

Why is it a concern for any refinery?

Amit Priyadarshan, Chief Executive Officer of oilfield application and services provider Caliche, explained that pipes, bends, pressure vessels, outlets, inlets, valves and chokes in a refinery are designed based on a certain viscosity of crude oil. “Beyond which, it leads to complication in the process,” he stated, adding specifically with respect to viscosity, “In the flow [of crude oil in pipes and systems of a refinery], pressure gets built up.” Further, enumerating about the acidic number, Mr. Priyadarshan explained that a higher acidic number of the crude variant, beyond the threshold of the systems, would result in corroding. “It is not just one pipe but a huge system of pipes, vessels and much more, everything starts corroding if the threshold is breached,” he said. Anandh Mathew, the Group COO at Caliche, also pointed to refineries using catalysts and/or chemicals to process crude into final products as petrol and diesel among others. “Refineries procure these based on the type of crude it can process but if there is a different type of crude, it is not like you can go buy it from the market, the catalysts are used in thousands of tonnes each day,” he stated. According to Mr. Mathews, while recalibrating refineries may not be a particularly uphill task in terms of cost, it cannot be done overnight and the lack of additional storage capacity could be a constraint. He added certainty over the recalibrated setup’s utilisation in the future would be another essential concern.

Bloomberg reported that Reliance, India’s refining giant, “has taken one Very Large Crude Carrier with a cargo of around 2 million barrels”. Reliance’s Jamnagar can handle heavy and extra-heavy crude.

What next?

India’s Foreign Ministry has maintained that New Delhi “remains open to exploring the commercial merits of any crude supply option, including from Venezuela”. Speaking to the press on February 5, Randhir Jaiswal, official spokesperson at the ministry also pointed to Indian public sector entities of the oil and gas sector having established relationships with the Venezuelan state-owned PDVSA. “We were importing energy or crude oil from Venezuela till 2019-20 and thereafter we had to stop. Again, we started buying oil from Venezuela in 2023-24 which were halted because of re-imposition of sanctions,” he observed. For context, the South American nation’s share in India’s crude oil basket hovered between 10-13% until President Trump imposed sanctions during his first term at the Oval Office. Later, after New Delhi recommenced purchases, Venezuelan crude constitutes about 1-2% of India’s overall basket.

A potential determinant for higher Venezuelan uptake also entails political uncertainty. Mr. Trump’s actions have been condemned at the UNSC and by allies including the EU. This factor is important for considering any investment in Venezuela.

Further, another gauntlet could be its revival of supply. According to Fitch, while the Caracas holds 17% of global proven reserves, — the world’s largest oil, it produced only 0.8% of the global crude in November last year. “Venezuelan oil production dropped materially over the past 15 years – to 0.88MMbpd in 2024 from 2.5MMbpd in 2010 – due to sanctions and underinvestment,” the analysis read. Although, essential to note, according to a Reuters report, Indian Oil and Hindustan Petroleum have placed order for Venezuelan Merey crude, scheduled for delivery in April.

On the other hand, an SBI Research note held that India’s import fuel bill could decline by $3 billion should they move to Venezuela. This was however subject to Indian refiners being able to avail a $10-12 discount per barrel to make it economically viable. It specifically noted that shifting to the South American crude would be subject to multiple factors, including, domestic refining capacity alongside time and insurance cost of shipping which has “5-times for India in relation to the Middle East and two times from Russia”.